2011/12 NBL Season Preview
NBL season has arrived and the excitement among hoops fans is palpable with Patty Mills signing with Melbourne, Andrew Bogut a possibility of playing in Sydney, the Tigers and Crocs signing new coaches, the Breakers looking to defend their title and the Kings looking to avoid back-to-back spoons. Get the breakdown for the year right here.
Adelaide 36ers
Coach:Marty Clarke (9-19)
Key Signings: Nathan Crosswell*, Wade Helliwell, Chris Warren (I), Stephen Weigh*
Key Losses: Rhys Carter, Brad Hill, Ron Howard (I), Eddie Shannon (I)
Starting Five: Chris Warren, Darren Ng, Stephen Weigh, Adam Ballinger, Daniel Johnson
Last Season: 9-19 (8th)
Key 2010/11 Stats: Worst 3-point shooting team in the NBL and second-worst team at defending the three; worst rebounding team getting out-boarded by an average of 4.93 per game; led the NBL in free-throw percentage; ranked second in assists.
Strengths: Adam Ballinger, a selfless attitude, free-throw shooting
Weaknesses: Rebounding, outside shooting, aggression in the middle
Outlook: With their best player, Adam Ballinger, out to start the season, the 36ers have got off on the wrong foot and are unlikely to get back to an even keel. Chris Warren was schooled in the SEC so should be able to produce but this looks a very ho-hum Adelaide team. A second import may help them but with Ballinger sidelined early, the 36ers will be in a hole and they lack the class to dig themselves out.
Prediction: 8th
Odds: $15.00 (Sportingbet)
Cairns Taipans
Coach:Aaron Fearne (30-31)
Key Signings: Jeff Dowdell, Brad Hill*, Andrew Warren (I)*, Jamar Wilson (I)*
Key Losses: Daniel Dillon, Ron Dorsey (I), Phil Jones, Ayinde Ubaka (I)
Starting Five: Jamar Wilson, Andrew Warren, Brad Hill, Alex Loughton, Ian Crosswhite
Last Season: 16-12 (2nd)
Key 2010/11 Stats: Led the NBL in defence, allowing only 75.3ppg; were third in rebounds; second last in the league in both blocks and steals; second last in points scored, ranking eighth in field goal percentage and seventh in free-throw percentage.
Strengths: A strong defensive ethic, a sharp coach, rebounding
Weaknesses: Scoring, forcing turnovers, experienced and classy guards
Outlook: Were surprise finalists last season but have lost their two best players – imports Ayinde Ubaka and Ron Dorsey – to Melbourne and replacing them with some unknowns is likely to lead to a major fall down the ladder. The much-maligned Brad Hill is better than he is credited for and will make the most of his starting opportunity while Alex Loughton will continue to produce but it is hard to see them threatening this season.
Prediction: 7th
Odds: $26.00 (Sportingbet)
Gold Coast Blaze
Coach:Joey Wright (148-97)
Key Signings: Mike English (I), Will Hudson (I)*
Key Losses: Ira Clark (I), Pero Vaslijevic
Starting Five: Adam Gibson, James Harvey, Anthony Petrie, Mark Worthington, Will Hudson
Last Season: 13-15 (6th)
Key 2010/11 Stats: Had only two players play all 28 games during a horrid run with injuries; ranked second in the league in points scored; ranked last in points allowed; ranked second-last in three-point shooting; ranked last in steals; had second fewest offensive rebounds in the NBL.
Strengths: Depth, ability to score, the sharpest active coach in the NBL
Weaknesses: Defence, a lack of an inside presence, consistent outside scoring
Outlook: It was a mighty effort from the Blaze to run sixth last year considering the long injury list they suffered. Joey Wright is an outstanding coach and with a fair rub of the green the Blaze can be back in the playoffs. Mark Worthington is too streaky for a top-class player but he can win a game off his own back while Will Hudson will provide some much-needed class inside. Adam Gibson is a lovely distributor and can get to the hole as well. Big things are expected from Gold Coast.
Prediction: 2nd
Odds: $4.50 (Sportingbet)
Melbourne Tigers
Coach:Trevor Gleeson (92-71)
Key Signings: Daniel Dillon, Ron Dorsey (I)*, Patrick Mills*, Ayinde Ubaka (I)*
Key Losses: Daryl Corletto, Wade Helliwell, Corey Williams
Starting Five: Patrick Mills, Ayinde Ubaka, Ron Dorsey, Lucas Walker, Cam Tragardh
Last Season: 10-18 (7th)
Key 2010/11 Stats: Ranked second in field goal percentage; ranked sixth in points for and seventh for points against; were the worst free-throw shooting team in the league; finished seventh in blocked shots despite having the tallest team in the league by a long way.
Strengths: Patrick Mills and his blinding speed, class across the court, a promising influx of youth
Weaknesses: A new system, terrible free throw shooting, having two guards who like to control the ball
Outlook: It is a fresh start for the Tigers, who welcome new coach Trevor Gleeson and Portland Trailblazer Patrick Mills. Mills is perfectly suited to the guard-dominated NBL and will have the Tigers going in as favourites in any game they play with him. Abandoning the "tall trees" plan is a positive as is the signing of Ubaka but how long the Tigers have Mills and how the superstar pairs with Ubaka in the backcourt will determine the fate of the Tigers in 2011/12.
Prediction: 4th
Odds: $6.00 (Sportingbet, Centrebet)
New Zealand Breakers
Coach:Andrej Lemanis (97-95)
Key Signings: Cedric Jackson (I)*
Key Losses: Kevin Braswell (I), Paul Henare, Kirk Penney
Starting Five: Cedric Jackson, CJ Bruton, Tom Abercrombie, Mika Vukona, Gary Wilkinson
Last Season: 22-6 (1st)
Key 2010/11 Stats: Led the NBL in scoring; led the NBL in three-point shooting; led the NBL in field goal shooting; placed second in steals; led in assists; ranked eighth in total defence; ranked second-last in free throw shooting.
Strengths: Their potent high-octane offense, a crew of athletic big men, the clutch shooting of CJ Bruton, a measurable home court advantage
Weaknesses: The loss of star Kirk Penney, a leaky defence, poor free throw shooting
Outlook: Losing Kirk Penney, the best player in the League over the last three seasons, hurts the Breakers immeasurably while Paul Henare's departure could damage the team's chemistry. They remain a huge threat though with athletic big men Gary Wilkinson and Tom Abercrombie dangerous on both ends of the court and the deadly CJ Bruton still an elite shooter. They look nice value to go back-to-back.
Prediction: 1st
Odds: $10.00 (Sportingbet)
Perth Wildcats
Coach:Rob Beveridge (59-65)
Key Signings: Luke Nevill*
Key Losses: Andre Brown (I), Ater Majok, Stephen Weigh
Starting Five: Damian Martin, Kevin Lisch, Cameron Tovey, Shawn Redhage, Luke Nevill
Last Season: 16-12 (4th)
Key 2010/11 Stats: Led the NBL in offensive rebounds; led the league in steals; ranked third in both points for and points against; have the worst field goal percentage; allowed the highest two-point percentage of any team.
Strengths: A very deep roster, a feared pressure defence, an ability to get second and third opportunities
Weaknesses: A lack of a dominant inside presence, concerns over Shawn Redhage's health, no top point guard to take control of matches
Outlook: Deserved title favourites at this stage despite the fact they made no real splash with off-season recruiting but their season will swing on the ability of star Shawn Redhage to recover from an horrific hip injury. They lack class at centre but have huge depth everywhere else with a true 10-man rotation. Play a high-pressure defence oriented game that will take them a long way. Sure to be there at the business end.
Prediction: 3rd
Sydney Kings
Coach:Ian Robilliard (8-20)
Key Signings: Anatoly Bose*, Aaron Bruce, Jerai Grant (I)*, Kevin Ratzsch (I)*
Key Losses: Mark Dickel, Trey Glider, Ben Knight, Patrick Sanders
Starting Five: Kevin Ratzsch, Ben Madgen, Anatoly Bose, Jerai Grant, Julian Khazzouh
Last Season: 8-20 (9th)
Key 2010/11 Stats: Last in scoring; ranking no better than fifth in any major category outside of blocks; fifth in points against; worst offensive rebounding team in the NBL; suffered a 14-game losing streak, led the NBL in blocks.
Strengths: The best big man in the NBL in Julian Khazzouh, an improved recruitment drive, the rise of Ben Madgen
Weaknesses: Scoring is a major issue, a lack of support for Khazzouh on the boards, questionable coaching, point guard
Outlook: The Kings will certainly improve on last year's wooden spoon effort, their return to the NBL. Centre Julian Khazzouh is the best player in the NBL and they have certainly improved their import recruitment this year with Grant likely to be among the top players this season after a promising career with Clemson. They are improvers but under-the-odds at present due to the possibility Andrew Bogut is signed.
Prediction: 5th
Odds: $6.00 (Centrebet)
Townsville Crocs
Coach:Paul Woolpert (0-0)
Key Signings: Eddie Gill (I)*, Jacob Holmes*, Elvin Mims (I)*, Mitch Norton
Key Losses: Will Blalock, Nathan Crosswell, Gabe Freeman, Brad Williamson
Starting Five: Eddie Gill, Peter Crawford, Elvin Mims, Jacob Holmes, Luke Schenscher
Last Season: 17-11 (3rd)
Key 2010/11 Stats: Ranked second in points against; ranked third in three-point shooting; finished fourth in three-point shooting; finished seventh in rebounds, ranked eighth in assists; forced the second most turnovers per game.
Strengths: A stoic defence, an ability to force turnovers, good outside shooting
Weaknesses: Injuries, a lack of experienced big men, a stilted attack
Outlook: The poor old Crocs have been killed by injury with star centre Luke Schenscher out for six weeks with a hip injury and Russell Hinder gone for the year after breaking his leg. Elvin Mims will add experience and strength to the front-court and Eddie Gill has NBA experience but depth is a major worry for Townsville, who seem long odds of making the playoffs this year.
Prediction: 9th
Odds: $26.00 (Sportingbet)
Wollongong Hawks
Coach:Gordie McLeod (149-173)
Key Signings: Joevan Catron (I)
Key Losses: Tim Behrendorff, Gary Ervin
Starting Five: Rhys Martin, Mat Campbell, Glen Saville, Oscar Forman, Larry Davidson
Last Season: 15-13 (5th)
Key 2010/11 Stats: Ranked second in three-point shooting; ranked second in free throw percentage; ranked fourth in both points scored and points against; ranked last in blocks; ranked seventh in rebounds.
Strengths: An honest roster, a classy coach, a very good front court
Weaknesses: The loss of the league MVP, the lack of a point guard, no X-factor
Outlook: The Hawks have had a fairly stable offseason but there is no getting over the fact that reigning League MVP Gary Ervin has gone, moving to Ukraine for bigger money. Gordie McLeod will have an extremely difficult job replacing him. Import Joevan Catron has plenty of upside with the forward renowned for crashing the boards but he is no Ervin and with the season resting on the shoulders of Glen Saville, Larry Davidson and Mat Campbell, the Hawks may be short just a little class in terms of scoring.
Prediction: 6th
Odds: $15.00 (Centrebet)
I: Import
*: Starter
