2012 AFL Season Preview – Sydney, Carlton, West Coast

Filed in AFL by on March 19, 2012

The 2012 AFL season looms large on the horizon – new coaches, new structures and once again this year, a new entrant to the competition. How will it all shake out? In part five of our season preview, Greg Oberscheidt and Cliff Bingham look at three teams who have the potential to take it right up to the premiership favourites – Sydney, Carlton and West Coast.

 

Previous Instalments

Part 1: Introduction, Greater Western Sydney, Gold Coast and Port Adelaide

Part 2: Brisbane, Adelaide and Melbourne

Part 3: Richmond, Fremantle and Western Bulldogs

Part 4: North Melbourne, Essendon and St Kilda

 

 

SYDNEY

2011 record:12-9-1 (seventh place on ladder, eliminated in second week of finals)

Home and away season – average points for/ against: 86.2 points for, 78.9 points against (109.3 per cent)

Home and away season – record against top-8 teams: 4-6 (played three teams twice)

Home and away season – record against bottom-8 teams: 8-3-1 (played threeteams twice)

Home and away season – record in games decided by two goals or less: 4-4-1

Teams played twice in 2012: GWS, St Kilda, Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn, Geelong (combined 2011 record of 58-29-1)

 

GO

I’ve never been a fan of the Swans and I’ve made no bones about that. The last 10 years have been a pretty easy time to hate them. They played ugly (effective, sure) football and their main man, Adam Goodes is the bane of my existence, more so for his ability to escape penalty for any of his dozens of on-field transgressions than for any personal reason.

However, I must be starting to mellow as I now enjoy watching the Swans ply their trade. They have a strong and confident group who feed of each other and commit to the contest. The have plenty of grunt in the midfield led by Keiran Jack and Josh Kennedy. ‘Big Mummy’ is a beauty and Grundy has shown he can lead the teams defence from CHB. Reid is also showing glimpses of what appears to be a very bright future.

The Swans are hard to beat at home and consistent on the road as well – that’s a recipe for an almost certain appearance in the finals again this year. 2012 outlook – 13 wins.

CB

The Swans continued to have a flair for the dramatic in 2011, playing nine regular season games in which the margin was two goals or less.

The transition from Paul Roos to John Longmire has been relatively seamless, with the same focus on contested ball at the stoppages being a hallmark of both coaching eras. They’ve also been sneakily rebuilding in the past couple of years, and now have a list that boasts 10 players who have played more than 100 senior games and a further 13 between 40 and 90 games.

Their early draw also looks reasonable, with a round five trip to Tasmania to take on Hawthorn their only match against a 2011 finalist in the first eight weeks. The Swans rarely look a gift horse in the mouth, and thus I expect them to stake out a position in the eight early on and maintain it.  2012 outlook – 13 wins.

 

 

CARLTON

2011 record: 14-7-1 (fifth place on ladder, eliminated in second week of finals)

Home and away season – average points for/ against: 101.1 points for, 77.3 points against (130.9 per cent)

Home and away season – record against top-8 teams: 4-6-1 (played four teams twice)

Home and away season – record against bottom-8 teams: 10-1 (played two teams twice)

Home and away season – record in games decided by two goals or less: 2-2-1

Teams played twice in 2012: Collingwood, Richmond, Brisbane, Essendon, St Kilda (combined 2011 record of 55-52-3)

 

GO

A strong argument can be made about the Blues being in the top four and one might even contemplate the idea of them competing for the flag. They have quality players from end to end. Judd is their God and we all know his capabilities. Murphy took the step up last year and Gibbs seems to be relishing the distributor role across half back. Robinson is the hard edge to their midfield unit.

Kruezer will spend plenty of time up forward, with Warnock and Hampson to share the ruck duties. It remains to be seen if they can play all three together. Walker will be hoping to duplicate last year’s heroics, but his history would indicate that this is not likely. Betts and Garlett provide plenty of run and sparks of brilliance.

The Achilles’ heel for the Blues is their defence, especially with Jamieson having missed the bulk of the preseason and Thornton being a spud. They have the run and creativity of Yarran but will struggle to contain the better attacks. Henderson and Waite are options but they can’t afford to get the balance wrong.

To my mind they’ll battle it out with Freo for fourth and will be disappointed if they don’t make at least a preliminary final. 2012 outlook – 14 wins.

CB

Last year I thought they were a side that would be better placed in 2012 than in 2011, and nothing I’ve seen to date changes my mind on the issue.

Last year they had wretched luck with injuries to key defenders and while the pre-season has been unkind to both Duigan and Laidler, if they get through the remainder of the season with minimal dramas, they should improve on this front. For a team that barely missed last year’s preliminary final, this is a promising prospect. 

They also have a nice blend of youth and experience, with four 150+ game players (including Judd, who has played 222 games and won’t turn 29 until September) mixed with a further 19 who have played between 40 and 150 senior matches.

Importantly, their draw looks easier than last year and easier than most of the 2011 high flyers, as they only play three 2011 finalists in the first 10 weeks. Expect them to be right in the mix when the whips are cracking in late September. 2012 outlook – 15 wins.

 

 

WEST COAST

2011 record: 17-5 (fourth place on ladder, eliminated in preliminary final)

Home and away season – average points for/ against: 101.6 points for, 78.0 points against (130.3 per cent)

Home and away season – record against top-8 teams: 3-5 (played one team twice)

Home and away season – record against bottom-8 teams:14-0 (played five teams twice)

Home and away season – record in games decided by two goals or less: 5-1

Teams played twice in 2012: North Melbourne, Brisbane, Fremantle, Collingwood, Hawthorn (combined 2011 record of 61-49)

 

GO

The surprise packet of 2011 will be out to prove their meteoric rise was no fluke. I personally don’t need proof. Their rise was due to their senior players being fit and available for the majority of the season. Cox, Glass, Embley, Hurn and Kerr were the catalyst for the success of the Eagles last year. Their ability to win the ball under pressure and to lead from the front enabled their host of talented kids to join in the chorus.

If they can all play significant roles this year then expect the likes of Masten, Shuey, Swift, Hams and Strijk to all evolve as well.

The loss of Le Cras is resounding and no team can ever afford to loose a player of his quality. That being said, the Eagles have plenty of options to fill the void. Josh Hill has a second chance after his career after it hit the skids with the Bulldogs and if he can find the form of his early days, he might just be the solution.

Jack Darling also looks ready to burst this year and Nic Nat… did I forget Nic Nat? Sheesh. They’ll be hard to beat. 2012 outlook – 14 wins.

 

CB

Here’s a good way to win some money off your friends – ask them which team collected more premiership points against 2011 finalists last year – Essendon or West Coast?

Of the 2011 finalists, only St Kilda posted fewer home and away season wins against the fellow top-8 members than the Eagles. Indeed, the Crows matched West Coast’s three wins, while Richmond had two wins and a draw. Couple the ‘easy’ 2011 draw with a 5-1 record in games decided by two or less goals and they look a strong candidate for a 2012 slide.

The season-ending injury to Le Cras certainly doesn’t help, but remember that he missed a significant portion of last season as well, so I think the Eagles have the depth to cope. Thriving may be another issue entirely though.

I think the Eagles showed too much last year to disappear from the top eight entirely, but a significant slip from their 17 wins last year is well within the bounds of possibility. 2012 outlook – 13 wins (‘snake’ side in 2012).

 

Photo by Hamish Blair/Getty Images AsiaPac

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