2013 ANZ Championships – Round 14 Tips

The top four is all but assured (barring a massive victory for the Pulse and an even bigger collapse at home by either the Vixens or Magic) and the Thunderbirds have locked down the top spot and home court advantage next week, but the battle for position for teams two to four is still on in earnest heading into the final weekend of the home and away season. Ben Carbonaro returns for his preview of Round 14.

Results for Round 13 tips

Round 13:  2 units bet, 1 winner, return of 1.90 units

2013 total:  26 units bet, 15 winners, return of 28.04 units (8% PoT)

2012/ 2013 total:  56 units bet, 35 winners, return of 65.69 units (17% PoT)

Our 2011 introductory discussion of how netball line betting works and what to expect from this column

Once again this year, for the purposes of this weekly column, we will only recommend a bet where Ben’s opinion differs from that of bookmakers by at least 3.5 goals.

Here are Ben’s thoughts on Round 14 of the 2013 ANZ Championships:

 

Round 14 Tips (please note: all times are the local time for the home side)

Sunday June 16, 12:10 PM Melbourne Vixens v West Coast Fever

Vixens:  8-4 (third on ladder), 4-2 home

Fever:  5-7 (seventh on ladder), 1-4 away

Bookmakers’ line:  TBC

Ben says:  Vixens need to beat the Fever by a decent margin in order to finish on a better percentage than Magic, who are locked on 16 points with them and below them in fourth ladder position only on points. A lapse in concentration and too many penalties cost the Vixens an important win over Magic in last week's Grand Final rematch. The Fever playing group were publicly put on notice by coach Norma Plummer after Firebirds thrashed them by 25 goals in round 12, but they answered her criticism with a strong win over Steel. Traditionally they haven't played all that well against Australian teams away from Perth and this will count against them come Sunday afternoon at Hisense Arena. Vixens by 6
Recommended bet:   TBC

 

Sunday June 16, 1:40 PM Adelaide Thunderbirds v Queensland Firebirds

Thunderbirds:  11-1 (first on ladder), 6-0 home

Firebirds:  9-3 (second on ladder), 6-0 away

Bookmakers’ line:  TBC

Ben says:  The last time these two met it was an absolute thriller, with the game going down to the last minute or so and Thunderbirds winning by a single goal. They have just one game back in round two to Vixens and are the most likely Australian premiership contender on paper. Queensland were pushed by the Swifts, but they came away with a gritty hard fought win and Adelaide's 23 goal third quarter set up their win over Northern Mystics. This game will be a carbon copy of the round six encounter between the two sides, but Adelaide's passionate home crowd should help them over the line. Thunderbirds by 3

Recommended bet:   TBC

 

Sunday June 16, 7:20 PM Southern Steel v Central Pulse

Steel:  6-6 (sixth on ladder), 4-1 home

Pulse:  7-5 (fifth on ladder), 1-4 away

Bookmakers’ line:  TBC

Ben says:  This game is the one that I feel could have the biggest bearing on the final four, with the Pulse breathing down the necks of Vixens and Magic, who are separated only by percentage. Steel were competitive for three quarters against the Fever and with shooting machine Jhaniele Fowler in superb form, it will be hard for Pulse to stop her but if the round four clash between these two team was anything to go by this one could go done to the wire. It also has the added spice of Pulse wanting to improve their percentage to push into the top four.  Pulse by 5

Recommended bet:   TBC

 

Monday June 17, 7:40 PM Waikato/BOP Magic v Northern Mystics

Magic:  8-4 (fourth on ladder), 5-0 home

Mystics:  1-11 (tenth on ladder), 0-6 away

Bookmakers’ line:  TBC

Ben says:  Magic are locked in a battle with the Vixens to stay in finals contention, with just percentage separating them as both sides are locked on 16 points. They just got over the line in a Grand Final rematch of sorts (even if both sides didn't view it as that) as their defensive end in particular stood out. This week they face an injury riddled Mystics side who simply haven't able to get their season on track at any stage in 2013. Magic by 13

Recommended bet:   TBC

 

Monday June 10, 7:40 PM NSW Swifts v Canterbury Tactix

Swifts:  3-9 (eighth on ladder), 2-3 home

Tactix:  2-10 (ninth on ladder), 1-4 away

Bookmakers’ line:  TBC

Ben says:  Swifts once again pushed another top side in the Firebirds last round and once again, it was a case of dropping off in the final few minutes. The Tactix were outclassed by Pulse early before but reduced the margin to 11 goals at one stage before  going down to a team that still has a chance of playing finals. This game shapes as the last time netball fans will get to see Swifts midcourter Vanessa Ware and defender Mo'onia Gerrard on a netball court together, with Ware retiring to concentrate on an interior design career and Gerrard chasing the Olympic dreaming of representing Australia in rugby sevens at Rio 2016. Swifts will be too good for a Tactix side that has been more inconsistent than consistent this season, but they will be looking to finish the season on a positive note. Swifts by 18

Recommended bet:   TBC

 

Thanks to Phil Walter/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo