2014 ANZ Championships – Round 4
While a clear bottom three teams have emerged early in the 2014 ANZ Championship season, the remaining seven teams are all staking their claims as finals contenders. Will Round 4 help us differentiate the top seven any further? Ben Carbonaro returns to preview all of the fixtures.
Results
Round 3: 4 units bet, gross return of 5.64 units, net profit of 1.64 units
2014: 8 units bet, gross return of 5.64 units, net loss of 2.36 units
Round 3 Tips (please note: all times are the local time for the home side)
Saturday March 22, 4:20 PM Steel v Fever
Bookmakers’ line: Steel +6.5
Ben says: After losing their first two games, the Fever finally cracked it for a win at home over an under-performing and as former Australian captain Liz Ellis said earlier this week, a “soft” Tactix team. It was a brave performance from the Steel as they just went down to Magic; had they beaten them Magic wouldn’t be ladder leaders. This game sees two reasonably matched sides going head to head, but Fever need to win this game to help set up what is a stretch of two consecutive games away in New Zealand. Fever by 9
Recommended bet: Nil
Sunday March 23, 12:18 PM Swifts v Firebirds
Bookmakers’ line: Swifts +2.5
Ben says: Both the Swifts and Firebirds are coming off one-goal thrillers, both not decided until the final minute. The Swifts just went down to the Thunderbirds before a capacity crowd in Adelaide on Monday night in what was a game of two halves, where both teams played some good as well as bad bad netball. While they looked good during the first half, the Swifts buckled under pressure in the second half against a Thunderbirds defensive line led by Rebecca Bulley. Firebirds had a last second win over the Vixens after an indifferent start and they will build on this with a win over a Swifts team decimated by injuries. Firebirds by 5
Recommended bet: Nil
Saturday morning update of recommended bet: 1 unit on Firebirds at $1.90 straight out (i.e. line of zero) at Centrebet.
Sunday March 23, 2:18 PM Vixens v Magic
Bookmakers’ line: Vixens -5.5
Ben says: Many tipped the Magic to struggle through this season with Irene van Dyk and Laura Langman leaving, but that has so far not been the case. They have won their first three games in what has been something of surprising for not just their supporters, but the team themselves too. The Vixens led by as much as six goals at different stages against Firebirds, but it could be said that they lost their composure at crucial times to lose a one-goal thriller. They don’t lose at home too often and a win here is extremely important as they play four of their next five games away. Vixens by 7
Recommended bet: Nil
Sunday March 23, 7:20 PM Pulse v Tactix
Bookmakers’ line: Pulse -12.5
Ben says: For a team that were traditionally the ANZ Championship’s cellar dwellers for a long time, the last year and a half has seen Pulse show significant improvement since Robyn Broughton came on board as head coach two years ago. The addition of Irene van Dyk has certainly added some spark to their attack line and she will have a field day against a Tactix team that has shown incremental improvement but have lacked consistency. Pulse by 25
Recommended bet: 1 unit on Pulse -12.5 at $1.87 (TAB Sportsbet)
Monday March 24, 7:40 PM Mystics v Thunderbirds
Bookmakers’ line: Mystics +8.5
Ben says: The Thunderbirds set a new competition record of 16 consecutive victories stretching back to round three last year with thier one-goal win over Swifts. They eclipsed the previous record of 15 that was created back in 2011 when Firebirds didn’t lose a game for a full season including finals. Rebecca Bulley was a standout in defence for the Thunderbirds, while the Carla Borrego/Erin Bell shooting combination was also extremely strong. Mystics just went down to the Pulse after coming from behind in what was certainly a much improved performance from them. Despite this game being in New Zealand, I think the Thunderbirds will march on to make it 17 consecutive and four straight wins for the season so far. Thunderbirds by 6
Recommended bet: Nil
Thanks mate. Just checked the H2H price and they’re $1.90 straight out at Centrebet.
That $1.90 ML option is now added as a recommended bet.
Firebirds are -1.5 @ $2.00 both Centrebet & Bet365
I disagree re. what most punters understand these days.
I’m a bit old school like you and prefer to conceptualise return in the net RoI sense.
However, the number of punters these days who think $8 = “8s” and that $51 = 51-1 (rather than asking themselves why the hell wouldn’t bookmakers offer $51 if that didn’t mean 50-1?) is both astounding and quite sad.
For the modern day punters, it seems like gross return is the way they think through the point e.g. what did I get back for my $20 bet, rather than the net profit.
Nonetheless, I’ve edited this column to now quite explicitly record both the gross and net return, such that there’s no ambiguity about what each figure refers to.
In terms of netballscoop, we’re cognisant that we’re still a very small website in the bigger scheme of things and are more than happy for Ben to write for whomever he wants to write for. Just happy to have him back on board for a third season.
And are you going to disclose you are writing on netballscoop?
Funny that there is no minus (-) sign. That’s what Avoozl is getting at. Most people would understand: 8 units bet for -2.36 return.
ok gotcha – thanks for clarifying Cliff.
Correct Avoozl – 4 units bet were bet last week, 3 winners, total return of 5.64 units for the 4 units outlaid (or a profit of 1.64 units).
In each of the opening 2 weeks there were 2 losing bets. Therefore, a total of 8 units bet to date, for 5.64 units returned on the 8 units outlaid, or a net loss of 2.36 units.
Last week there were 4 bets all of 1 unit and 3 won, 1 lost but you’ve put the record down as having won 5.6 units – maybe it should be 3.6 instead? all bets from previous weeks lost too.