AFL 2012 Season Preview – Brisbane, Adelaide and Melbourne
The 2012 AFL season looms large on the horizon – new coaches, new structures and once again this year, a new entrant to the competition. How will it all shake out? In part two of our season preview, Greg Oberscheidt and Cliff Bingham look at the Brisbane Lions as well as two teams with new senior coaches in 2012 – Adelaide and Melbourne.
Previous Instalments
Part 1: Introduction, Greater Western Sydney, Gold Coast and Port Adelaide
BRISBANE
2011 record: 4-18 (15th place)
Home and away season – average points for/ against: 82.5 points for, 101.8 points against (81.0 per cent)
Home and away season – record against top-8 teams: 0-9 (played one team twice)
Home and away season – record against bottom-8 teams: 4-9 (played five teams twice)
Home and away season – record in games decided by two goals or less: 1-5
Teams played twice in 2012:Melbourne, Gold Coast, West Coast, Carlton, Western Bulldogs (combined 2011 record of 51-57-2)
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They didn’t win many last year but were rarely embarrassed. Michael Voss will be hoping that the progression of key midfielders Rockliff and Redden will be the cornerstone for a big year in 2012. We all know about Browny’s trials over the last twelve months but not enough can be said about the mid-season injury to Daniel Merrett who, in my opinion, was in All-Australian form prior to breaking down with a back injury. The ‘Big Red Dog’ is up and about and has plenty of tongues wagging after a shift to the forward line in the NAB cup.
They look pretty hungry this year and I think everyone knows that this is Vossy’s last crack at it. Simon Black is evergreen and Josh Drummond looks in good shape given he has barely played for two years. Brent Staker has already been ruled out for 2012 and that is a massive blow for the Lions given his versatility.
Like most of the mid range clubs this year they will be competitive against their peers, smash the lowly sides and get belted by the big three. Hopefully Browny has now satisfied his deal with the devil and his head injuries will stop at three. 2012 outlook – 9 wins (‘ladder’ side in 2012).
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Granted, they received what turned out to be a ‘soft’ draw in 2011 and failed to take advantage of it. But they toiled for most of the season without their leader Jonathan Brown and late in the piece gave Collingwood and West Coast real scares in Rounds 20 and 21 respectively. The loss of Mitch Clark hurts, but Leuenberger has proved himself to be a very promising ruckman. And even though Brown seemingly continues to love face-on-knee contact, he is unlikely to be absent for as long in 2012.
However as a stats nerd, here is the trend I can’t resist: since 2011, there have been nine teams record less than six wins with a percentage greater than 75 (2002 Saints, 2003 Demons, 2004 Bulldogs, 2005 Blues, 2005 Magpies, 2005 Hawks, 2006 Bombers, 2007 Demons, 2010 Eagles). Only one failed to improve to at least nine wins the following season, and three of them comfortably made the finals.
I don’t think the Lions are well enough advanced to see September, but a much improved showing is well within their reach. 2012 outlook – 9 wins (‘ladder’ side in 2012).
ADELAIDE
2011 record:7-15 (14th place)
Home and away season – average points for/ against:79.2 points for, 99.7 points against (79.4 per cent)
Home and away season – record against top-8 teams: 3-8 (played three teams twice)
Home and away season – record against bottom-8 teams: 4-7 (played three teams twice)
Home and away season – record in games decided by two goals or less: 2-3
Teams played twice in 2012:Port Adelaide, GWS, Geelong, Fremantle, Gold Coast (combined 2011 record of 34-54)
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The Crows have got one of the better draws this year and on the strength on that alone you have to give them a chance. They’ve under-achieved for the last few years given the talent on their list and their new coach, Brenton Sanderson who has had a massive role in the Cats recent successes, could be just the tonic. From what we’ve seen in the pre-season they look fitter and faster than they were last year. Possibly because Sando has put everyone on notice and the competition for spots seems to be pretty hot.
They do lack a key defender having lost Bock and Davis in consecutive years to the expansion clubs, but Rutten is as good a fullback as any and young Talia is showing signs he could step up this year. Thompson Vince and Van Berlo are a pretty handy start in the guts and now that Dangerfield seems to have upgraded his engine, they have a real sense of explosiveness at the contest.
They will also welcome back Porplyzia from the depths of injury hell. He is as classy as they come, can play tall and also win the ball in close. With Tippett and Walker added to the mix they now have three genuine 50-goal-a-year forward options. If Porps can stay fit then the Crows can play finals. 2012 outlook – 12 wins (‘ladder’ side in 2012).
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After two below-par seasons by Adelaide standards, Neil Craig was shown the door. In comes Brenton Sanderson to take over what is a fairly young list (only seven players who have played over 100 senior games and a further eight with between 50-100 games to their name).
One of the critical things that a finals ‘sleeper’ has to be able to do is start the season with a rush. Have a look at the Crows’ draw in the first five weeks – Suns away, Bulldogs at home, Hawks away, Giants at home, Power at home. While the Hawks may be a bridge too far, couldn’t they easily be 4-1 after five weeks and keeping pace with the elite teams?
Overall, they have one of the easiest draws on the board and have a great chance to go 6-0 in their matches against the Power, Giants and Suns. It’s not a stretch to suggest that they could then win at least five or six of their other 16 games and push for a spot in the finals. 2012 outlook – 11 wins (‘ladder’ side in 2012).
MELBOURNE
2011 record:8-13-1 (13th place)
Home and away season – average points for/ against:89.7 points for, 105.2 points against (85.3 per cent)
Home and away season – record against top-8 teams: 1-9-1 (played three teams twice)
Home and away season – record against bottom-8 teams:7-4 (played three teams twice)
Home and away season – record in games decided by two goals or less:1-2-1
Teams played twice in 2012:Brisbane, Richmond, St Kilda, GWS, Fremantle (combined 2011 record of 33-53-2)
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They’ve been on the verge of a break out season for a while now and they just can’t seem to crack it. Hopefully for the Melbourne faithful a new coach will get them up but unfortunately Mr Neeld can’t do it all himself. I feel the real reason for their stilted progression has been that their top line players just aren’t of the same calibre as the rest of the field.
Frawley is their best player in my eyes and is one of the elite CHB’s in the AFL. Mitch Clark will give them a strong option up forward, but the support cast is lacking, with Dunn and Bate not coming on as the Dees would have hoped. Watts is a work in progress but should probably be allowed to progress in the twos. Apparently they can’t justify leaving out their number one draft pick. Moloney has shown what he is capable of with some truly amazing performances including a 19 clearance special last year but he needs consistency. Trengrove will get there but isn’t at the top yet. Green is a mid-sized forward and often looks lost when on the ball. Davey has shit the bed over the last few years and fails to regularly justify his spot in the team. The list goes on.
I’d like to see Melbourne do well, but with the competition evening out, I fear they will be one team that won’t cut the mustard this year. 2012 outlook – 8 wins.
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Everything I hear about Mark Neeld makes him sound exactly like the sort of coach the Demons need right now – just a real no-nonsense, tough, uncompromising bugger who cares not for potential and only for results on the field. I also really like the signing of Mitch Clark, who should make Mark Jamar’s life in the ruck much easier at the absolute least.
Yet there remain two niggling issues in the back of my mind with the Dees: (1) the lingering question marks at board level, especially now that Jim Stynes has (rightfully) taken a back seat to look after his health – they will miss his galvanising spirit; and (2) their draw in the first 11 weeks, where they play every 2011 finalist, including interstate trips to play West Coast and Sydney. They could be 3-8 or possibly even 2-9 at the halfway mark without losing a game they started as favourite in.
I see Melbourne finishing the year fast as Neeld exerts greater influence and ‘reprograms’ many of his troops, but they’re likely to be too far off the pace at the midway mark to sneak into the finals. 2012 outlook – 10 wins.
Photo by Morne de Klerk/Getty Images AsiaPac
