Anz Championship – Rd 6 Picks

As the ANZ Championship rolls into Round Six and the second week of four this season where some teams face a double header (in this case, the Fever and Swifts have drawn the short straws), the wheat and chaff have been separated to a reasonable degree. Depending on how you feel about the prospects of the Thunderbirds and Steel making a strong run in the second half of the season, the finals picture is already down to a race in five (Firebirds, Magic, Mystics, Vixens and Swifts) or a race in seven. While greater parity between teams would doubtless help the competition, the success rate of Ms Netball’s recommended bets thus far requires no tinkering – here’s hoping it continues all season long.

Results of Ms Netball tips to date

Head to head winners: Ten selections, nine winners (90% strike rate)

Recommended bets: Five selections, four winners, return of $7.60, Profit on Turnover (POT) = 52%

To recap, for the purposes of this weekly column, we will only recommend a bet where the opinion of bookmakers and the opinion of Ms Netball differ by at least 3.5 goals.

With that, we are going to bypass my usual preamble and hand it directly over to Ms Netball for her views on Round Six of the ANZ Championship:

Round Six Tips (please note: all times are the local time for the home side)

Thursday March 17, 7:10 PM West Coast Fever v NSW Swifts

Fever: 1-4 (eighth on ladder), 0-2 home

Swifts: 3-2 (fifth on ladder), 0-1 away

Bookmakers’ line*: TBC

Ms Netball says:Keen to improve on their fiasco against the Vixens last week, the Fever will be determined to stick with the Swifts for this match.  I expect to see more cohesion and intelligence from the Fever this week.  In their matches against other Australian teams the Fever have been beaten by 20 + goals but lost to the Swifts by only four goals a fortnight ago after leading for much of the game, so they know they can take it to the Swifts if they play sensible netball.  On the other hand, the Swifts seemed to have found more with their defensive end working more cohesively and their movement in attack also improving. Coach Julie Fitzgerald is likely to go to use her bench heavily as the Swifts have three games in six days and therefore the management of player fatigue will play a big part in their performance. Swifts by 12.

Recommended bet: TBC. Back the Swifts if -8.5 or less, back the Fever if +15.5 or more.

 

Saturday March 19, 12:50 PM West Coast Fever v Southern Steel

Fever: 1-4 (eighth on ladder), 0-2 home

Steel: 2-3 (seventh on ladder), 1-3 away

Bookmakers’ line*: TBC

Ms Netball says:New Zealand teams have not fared well in Australia and while the Steel looked much better last week against the Pulse, and their mid court benefitting from Natasha Chokljat's return from injury, I think the Fever might just take this one.  If the Fever go back to basics and treasure possession (an area where they have been lacking in recent weeks) I think they can beat the Steel in a close match. Fever by 3.

Recommended bet: None – with the Fever coming off less than a 48-hour back-up, this is not a confident tip.

 

Sunday March 20, 2:20 PM NSW Swiftsv Queensland Firebirds

Swifts: 3-2 (fifth on ladder), 3-1 at home

Firebirds: 5-0 (first on ladder), 2-0 away

Bookmakers’ line*: TBC

Ms Netball says:I should declare that I am a Swifts supporter and incorrectly tipped them in their Round 2 encounter with the Firebirds in which they lost by three goals.  The Firebirds are playing with great confidence and will be hard to beat. The Swifts may well be showing signs of fatigue with this being their third match within a week, but despite all of this I am again tipping them, because I think they have shown recent improvement and have shown tremendous grit in winning their last  couple of matches.  I think this ability to overcome adversity (and a rousing home court crowd) might just help them to overcome the Firebirds in the return bout. Swifts by 2.

Recommended bet: None – with the Swifts also coming off a quick back-up and travelling cross-country between matches, this is not a confident tip.

 

Sunday March 20, 6:20 PM Central Pulse v Canterbury Tactix

Pulse: 0-5 (ninth on ladder), 0-3 at home

Tactix :0-3 (tenth on ladder), 0-2 away

Bookmakers’ line*: TBC

Ms Netball says:Matches between cellar-dwellers are always difficult to tip aren’t they? The Tactix have shown improvement with each week while the Pulse continue to be very inconsistent.  Expect a close match but I think the Tactix will take the points. Tactix by 3.

Recommended bet: TBC. Back the Tactix if not giving away goals, back the Pulse if +6.5 or more.

 

Monday March 21, 7:10 PM Adelaide Thunderbirds v Northern Mystics

Thunderbirds: 2-4 (sixth on ladder), 1-2 at home

Mystics: 4-1 (third on ladder), 2-0 away

Bookmakers’ line*: TBC

Ms Netball says:As noted above, New Zealand teams have not fared well in Australia. As a collective group they have been horrendous, to be brutally honest. The Mystics were able to pass last week’s litmus test against the Magic in a thriller and they face another litmus test this week – if they can’t cross the ditch and take care of business against one of the weaker Australian sides, that would not bode well for potential finals matches against better Australian sides. A young Thunderbirds’ defence will probably struggle against experience of Latu and Tutaia in goals for the Mystics.  The Thunderbirds coach is prepared to think outside the box and make radical player changes that can sometimes pay off – last week saw gun shooter Borrego start in defence and we may see something similar this week. Last week Erin Bell starred for the Thunderbirds and another big match from her will be required from her if they are to stick with the Mystics.  I’m expecting the Mystics to live up to the hype in a close match.Mystics by 2.

Recommended bet: TBC. With such a close game in the offing, you will need a plus to back either side. Back the Mystics if +1.5 or more, back the Thunderbirds if +5.5 or more.

 

Monday March 21, 7:40 PM Waikato/BOP Magic v Melbourne Vixens

Magic: 4-1 (second on ladder), 1-1 at home

Vixens: 3-1 (fourth on ladder), 2-1 away

Bookmakers’ line*:TBC

Ms Netball says: Probably the game of the round. The return of Julie Corletto gives the Vixens a very strong defence and good movement through midcourt – their transition from defence to attack was almost flawless last week. In contrast the Magic have struggled in bring the ball into their goal circle.  The Magic are yet to find the right timing between Van Dyk and Naoupu in the goal circle, albeit that their confidence and understanding in working together is growing each week. Nonetheless, the Magic look like a work-in-progress whereas the Vixens look more like the finished article, and I think that will prove to be the difference. Vixens by 4.

Recommended bet:TBC. Back the Vixens if not giving away goals, back the Magic if +7.5 or more.

Thanks to Phil Walter/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo

* Once again, bookmakers had not yet published lines for these games at the time of publication of this article. We will endeavour to add these lines (and note any consequential recommended bets) as they become available via the comments section each week.