ANZ Championships – Round 11 Tips

With only two wins separating the first and seventh-place teams and four rounds left to decide the 2012 finals picture, another pivotal round lies in store. In particular, the Thunderbirds-Firebirds and Magic-Pulse games could really considered ‘four point games’ given the congested state of the current ladder. No such question marks at Making The Nut’s netball gambling offices, where Three Feet Radio’s own Ben Carbonaro continues to make a killing. He’s back this week with his thoughts on Round 11.

 

Results for Round 10 tips

Round 10: 3.5 units bet, 2.5 winning units, return of 4.71 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = +35%

2012 total:  22.5 units bet, 17.5 winning units, return of 32.86 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = +46%

Our 2011 introductory discussion of how netball line betting works and what to expect from this column

For the purposes of this weekly column, we will only recommend a bet where Ben’s opinion differs from that of bookmakers by at least 3.5 goals.

Here are Ben’s thoughts on Round 11 of the 2012 ANZ Championships:

 

Round 11 Tips (please note: all times are the local time for the home side)

 

Sunday June 10, 11:40 AM Adelaide Thunderbirds v Queensland Firebirds  

Thunderbirds:  6-3 (third on ladder), 3-1 at home

Firebirds:  6-4 (fourth on ladder), 2-2 away

Bookmakers’ line:  TBC

Ben says:  The Thunderbirds had shocking a second half against the Vixens in Melbourne last week and lost, but the will be looking to rebound last week against a Queensland team that is in very good form at the moment. The form that the Firebirds are starting to show now suggests that they are a real sleeping giant and are firming as a genuine premiership chance, but at home I'm tipping the Thunderbirds by 5.

Recommended bet:   TBC

 

Sunday June 10, 2:20 PM West Coast Fever v NSW Swifts

Fever:  2-7 (ninth on ladder), 1-3 at home

Swifts:  6-3 (fifth on ladder), 1-3 away

Bookmakers’ line:   TBC

Ben says:  West Coast are fresh coming off a bye and despite the one-goal margin that separated these two teams back in round eight in Newcastle, the Swifts have been quietly going about their business after many tipped them to not have an impact this year with the departure of Cath Cox and the arrival of a new coach in Lisa Beehag. Prior to last week's five-goal loss in Brisbane, they had strung together six wins either side of the bye and will rebound against a competitive Fever team.  Swifts by 8

Recommended bet:    TBC

 

Sunday June 10, 7:20 PM Waikato/ BOP Magic v Central Pulse

Magic:  5-4 (sixth on ladder), 3-1 at home

Pulse:  5-5 (seventh on ladder), 2-3 away

Bookmakers’ line:    TBC

Ben says:  The Magic returned to action after a bye with a comfortable win over the Southern Steel and once again showed why they are now on the cusp of playing finals netball. They are on the verge of grabbing that best New Zealand-based team tag that the Northern Mystics have held for much of this season so far. The Pulse have won three games in a row and have proven the doubters wrong many times in 2012, but the Magic line-up full of international quality players will be too good. Magic by 10

Recommended bet:   TBC

 

Monday June 11, 7:40 PM Northern Mystics v Southern Steel  

Mystics:  7-2 (second on ladder), 3-1 at home

Steel:  2-7 (eighth on ladder), 1-3 away

Bookmakers’ line:   TBC

Ben says:  Northern are still the best performed New Zealand based team and while they had a bye last week, this shouldn't pose too many problems against a Steel team capable of pulling off surprise upsets against the top teams.   Mystics by 12

Recommended bet:   TBC

 

Bye:  Melbourne Vixens, Canterbury Tactix 

 

Thanks to Phil Walter/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo