April 12 Racing Selections

This week’s selections cover the April 12 meetings at Randwick (featuring the Group 1 Doncaster Handicap, Group 1 TJ Smith and Group 1 ATC Derby), Caulfield, Doomben and Morphetville.

Results for April 5 selections

Tips which were either scratched, outside the prescribed track conditions or too short in price

Scratched – Spillway, Zamorar

Track outside prescribed range – nil

Odds too short (less than $6 SP) – Moriarty, Hot Snitzel, Dany The Fox

Tips where the SP was in the $6-$9.50 range (1 unit bets)

Flemington – Kazanluk ($8.00 SP) – third

April 5 results:  1 selection, 1 unit bet, no winners,1 placing

2014:  32 selections, 32 units bet, 3 winners, 8 placings, SP return of 21.00 units (-34% PoT), BOB return of 21.00 units (-34% PoT)

2011-2014:  252 selections, 252 units bet, 32 winners, 71 placings, SP return of 242.00 units (-4% PoT), BOB return of 265.70 units (5% PoT)

Tips where the SP was in the $10+ range (0.5 unit bets)

Rosehill – Almighty Charge ($31.00 SP) – unplaced

Flemington – Ancient King ($18.00) – unplaced

April 5 results:  2 selections, 1 unit bet, no winners,no placings

2014:  19 selections, 9.5 units bet, 2 winners, no placings, SP return of 12.00 units (26% PoT), BOB return of 13.60 units (43% PoT)

2011-2014:  137 selections, 68.5 units bet, 11 winners, 12 placings, SP return of 64.00 units (-7% PoT), BOB return of 73.90 units (8% PoT)

Overall Results

April 5:  3 selections, 2 units bet, no winners, 1 placing

2014:  51 selections, 41.5 units bet, 5 winners, 8 placings, SP return of 33.00 units (-20% PoT), BOB return of 34.60 units (-17% PoT)

2011-2014: 389 selections, 320.5 units bet, 43 winners, 83 placings, SP return of 306.00 units (-5% PoT), BOB return of 339.60 units (6% PoT)

Saturday April 12

Randwick (tips based on a track rating range slow 6 to heavy 10)

Race 7 No. 1 Buffering

Forgive his first-up run (trainer Robert Heathcote said afterwards he wasn’t fully wound up), his 4 previous starts were all G1 WFA races over 1200m for 3 wins and a second, 6 starts on slow or heavy tracks for 3-1-0.

Race 8 No. 16 Dissident

Forgive his last start effort when he didn’t run out the 2000 metres in the Rosehill Guineas, beaten El Roca (who was terrific in the George Ryder Stakes – traditionally an outstanding form line) both times they’ve met over this distance, drops to 51.5 kilos for this race, 3yos have a great record in this race.

Caulfield (tips based on a track rating range dead 4 to heavy 10)

Race 6 No. 7 Nearest To Pin  

Improves sharply with racing (6 starts for 1-1-1 first and second-up, 10 starts for 5-2-1 thereafter), 9 starts for 4-2-1 at the trip, 3 starts for 3 wins on tracks rated slow or worse, gets in with just 52 kilos after the claim, drawn well in gate 2.

Race 7 No. 2 Lady Melksham  

Loves rain-affected going (7 starts for 1-0-0 on good tracks, 5 starts for 4-0-1 on tracks rated dead or worse), hasn’t won at 1100 metres but has a win over 955m and 4 wins over 1200m, so this trip should be fine, beaten only a length at Group 3 level 3 starts ago.

Doomben (tips based on a track rating range good 2 to dead 5)

Race 5 No. 4 Seeking More

Forgive his last start 4th on a heavy track, 7 starts at the track for 4-1-0, 3 starts at the trip for 2-0-0 (including 2 for 2 at the track/ trip), drawn well in gate 2, gets in under the limit after the claim.

Morphettville (tips based on a track rating range dead 4 to slow 7)

Race 3 No. 3 Out Of Coober

Another who improves sharply with racing (10 starts for 0-2-2 first and second-up, 16 starts for 5-0-1 thereafter), got home nicely when 5th behind Dany The Fox second-up, beaten only 4.2 lengths by Boban and 3.6 lengths by Smokin’ Joey at Group 3 level in the Melbourne spring (both races at this trip).

Thanks to Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo

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