April 16 Racing Selections

Racing tips this week will cover the April 16 meetings at Flemington, Randwick (Doncaster Day), Doomben and Morphetville.

Results for April 9

Invalid tips (due to scratchings and/ or track ratings that were outside the prescribed range)

Caulfield – Returntosender (scratched)

Tips where the SP was $5.50 or less

Randwick – Graceful Anna ($4.80 SP) – unplaced

Caulfield – I’m Imposing ($3.50) – unplaced

Morphetville Parks – Budriguez ($3.60) – Won

April 9 Results: Three selections, one winner, SP return of $3.60

Overall Results: 33 selections, eight winners, SP return of $31.40, profit on turnover (POT) = -5%

Tips where the SP was $6 or greater

Randwick – Once Were Wild ($8.00 SP) – Won

Randwick – Hidden Wonder ($15.00) – second

April 9 Results: Two selections, one winner, SP return of $8.00

Overall Results: 24 selections, five winners, SP return of $42.00, profit on turnover (POT) = 75%

All tips

Overall Results: 57 selections, 13 winners, SP return of $73.40, profit on turnover (POT) = 29%

Rules

(1) A ‘track rating range’ for which the tip will be considered valid will accompany selections.

(2) Results refer to a win-only bet at the bookmakers’ starting price (SP) divided into two groups– those where the SP is $5.50 or less (Group 1), and those where the SP is $6 or greater (Group 2).

Here are the selections for this Saturday:

Saturday April 16

Flemington (tips based on a track rating range of dead 4 to slow 7)

Race 5 No. 1 Amaethon  

He has been knocking on the door of another win lately with strong runs behind talented horses such as Launay, Zedi Knight and Pinwheel. Third-up from a spell he should be ready to roll fitness wise and with 57 kgs after the claim, he is reasonably well in at the weights. From barrier two he should roll forward and be fighting out the finish.

Race 6 No. 13 Ma Shang

While not a prolific visitor to the winner’s stall his recent form is excellent – a second to promising stayer Base over 1800 metres at Sandown was followed by a win in the Stony Creek Cup and a fourth behind Base and another promising stayer in Anudjawun at this track and distance. But it is the 51 kgs impost after the apprentice claim that makes him such an appealing prospect in this race – he is weighted to be very competitive in a race where pre-post markets have him quoted at around the $10 mark.

Randwick (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 5 No. 10 New Day Rising

Another of Gai’s up and coming stayers, whose record on tracks rated dead or better stands at two and four placings from just seven starts. Narrowly edged out last start when carrying 58.5 kgs and in the start prior ran second to Syreon, who subsequently won the Group 3 Queen’s Cup. I fancy that tomorrow is the day to go one better.

Race 7 No. 7 Love Conquers All

Part of me hopes that More Joyous is simply too good for them – she is a champion and that would make the best story for racing. However, the punter in me keeps coming back to Love Conquers All meeting the great mare 6.5 kgs better for running second to her in the Canterbury Stakes. Throw in his gallant second when nosed out by Rangirangdoo in the George Ryder Stakes (historically a fantastic indicator as to the best Doncaster hopes) and I think he can get the better of her under handicap conditions.

Race 8 No. 8 King Pulse

With the likes of Avenue, Solar Charged, Sister Madly, Keen Commander and Swift Alliance engaged here, they will go like stink for the first 800 to 1000 metres, hence I’m looking towards the late swoopers. The lightly raced King Pulse fits the bill. He has been unplaced in his two runs this preparation but both were in Group 1 races behind Black Caviar, and his previous run to that was a fourth placing in the 2010 Newmarket Handicap behind Wanted. With only 51.5 kgs and barrier one, he’ll be carrying my cash.

Doomben (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 5 No. 4 Femina Fashion

She returns to Brisbane (and drops significantly in class) after an unsuccessful trip to Sydney for two races at Listed level. Prior to that she had won two 1800 metres events (including the Magic Millions stayers race) in January and from barrier one, should be able to jump to the front, set the tempo and be too strong for a field of honest but limited middle-distance conveyances.

Race 6 No. 4 Faster Son

He has won six of his ten starts to date and his last three unplaced performances were all forgivable – a sixth (beaten less than three lengths) in the Group 3 Rubiton Stakes at Caulfield, a finish towards the tail of the field in the Group 1 Oakleigh Plate and a run on an unsuitable heavy track at the Gold Coast. A drier track and lesser quality opposition should see him returning to his winning ways.

Morphetville (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 6 No. 1 Catapulted

Forgive his unplaced run in the Group 1 Oakleigh Plate where was the victim of a less than spectacular ride and focus on the following statistics. On good and dead tracks, his overall record is ten wins and three seconds from just 17 starts. He has five wins and two placings from eight starts at Morphetville, including two wins from three starts over 1100 metres at this track. He won the Group 2 QTC Cup last winter and prior to the Oakleigh Plate was the winner of the Group 3 Rubiton Stakes. His class should prevail here.

Race 7 No. 1 Lady Lynette

A solid third when dropping to the 1400 metre journey and taking on the boys at her last start and frightfully unlucky second in mares grade over 1600 metres at the start prior, she returns to 1600 metres and mares grade tomorrow and should be the testing material. She has three wins and four placings from eight starts over 1600 metres, is well suited by the set weights and penalties nature of this race and while she makes her Morphetville debut, from barrier five should get the gun run and be too good in the finish.

Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo