December 17 Racing Selections

Filed in Horse Racing, The Sting's Racing Selections by on December 15, 2011

Tips for this weekend cover the December 17 meetings at Flemington and Warwick Farm. This will be the final tips column of 2011, with a report card (of sorts) coming next week and the column resuming on Saturday January 7.

 

Results for December 10 meetings

Invalid tips (due to scratchings and/ or track ratings that were outside the prescribed range)

Nil

Tips where the SP was $5.50 or less

Flemington – Catapulted ($4.60 SP) – second

Rosehill – Leichtenstein ($5.00) – second

Doomben – Excellantes ($5.50) – second

Morphettville – Tabulated ($3.50) – second

December 10 Results: Four selections, no winners

Overall Results: 109 selections, 19 winners, SP return of $70.25, SP POT = -36%, Luxbet BOB return of $81.80, BOB POT = -25%

Tips where the SP was $6 or greater

Nil

December 10 Results: No selections, no winners

Overall Results: 108 selections, 11 winners, SP return of $92.50, SP POT = -14%, Luxbet BOB return of $106.40, BOB POT = -1%

All tips

Overall Results: 217 selections, 30 winners, SP return of $162.75, SP POT = -25%, Luxbet BOB return of $188.20, BOB POT = -13%

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Rules (as per January 29  introductory column)

(1) A ‘track rating range’ for which the tip will be considered valid will accompany selections.

(2) Results refer to a win-only bet at the bookmakers’ starting price (SP) or Luxbet’s ‘Best of Best’ (BOB) price divided into two groups– those where the SP is $5.50 or less (which are NOT recommended bets), and those where the SP is $6 or greater (which constitute recommended bets).

 

Saturday December 17

Flemington (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 7 No. 1 Orbit Express

He was very unlucky last start behind Alpha Proxima at Caulfield and prior to that ran an excellent third to Under The Eiffel in the Group 3 Sandown Stakes. He has three wins and four placings from ten starts over the 1400 metres at Flemington and with 57.5 kilos after the claim is reasonably treated for a horse who has won over $630,000. The critical thing to my mind though is the likely speed in the race from the likes of Jungle Ruler, Produced and Alpha Proxima – this should give the run-on horses (such as Orbit Express) every chance to overpower the leaders in the straight.

 

Warwick Farm (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 6 No. 10 Fibrillation

In recent times the Villiers Stakes honour roll has frequently featured horses down in the weights and therefore this mare is right in contention. I thought he second-up run in the Festival Stakes was excellent, travelling three and four-wide the entire journey and still finishing strongly for fifth place in an on-pace dominated race. A former winner over 1800 metres and fourth placegetter in the Group 1 AJC Oaks, the step up to 1600 metres should prove beneficial. She also ran a very strong third at her only previous Warwick Farm run when first-up over 1400 metres in this preparation, and I think she can run on strongly and go two better this time around.

Race 8 No. 11 Jackpot Queen

This three year-old filly from the Matthew Dale stables already has three metropolitan wins over the 1000 metre scamper, albeit all of them in against her fellow two year-olds last season. Indeed, her only unplaced run from six starts at this trip was at Caulfield in July where she drew gate 15 and was four wide for much of the race. With barrier three and only 51.5 kilos this time around, she should get a much better run in transit. Whilst she meets the older horses for the first time, the fact remains that he $218,000-odd of prizemoney earned to date from nine starts is only surpassed in this field by the top three runners – they have had 17, 37 and 21 starts respectively and have to concede her between five and a half and nine kilos at the weights. I think she might be untapped and too classy for this BM80 field.

 

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Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo

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