December 3 Racing Selections

Tips for this weekend cover the December 3 meetings at Caulfield and Rosehill (featuring the Listed Festival Stakes).  

 

Results for November 26 meetings

Invalid tips (due to scratchings and/ or track ratings that were outside the prescribed range)

Track rating outside the prescribed range – Sandown Hillside – Musical Hit and Snitza

Tips where the SP was $5.50 or less

Eagle Farm – Skating On Ice ($3.10 SP, $3.80 BOB) – Won

Morphettville Parks – Grand Ginger ($4.40) – unplaced

November 26 Results: Two selections, one winner, SP return of $3.10, BOB return of $3.80

Overall Results: 104 selections, 19 winners, SP return of $70.25, SP POT = -32%, Luxbet BOB return of $81.80, BOB POT = -21%

Tips where the SP was $6 or greater

Eagle Farm – Steel Zip ($6.00 SP) – second

Eagle Farm – Listen Son ($13.00 SP, $14.40 BOB) – Won

November 26 Results: Two selections, one winner, SP return of $13.00, BOB return of $14.40

Overall Results: 106 selections, 11 winners, SP return of $92.50, SP POT = -13%, Luxbet BOB return of $106.40, BOB POT = +0.4%

All tips

Overall Results: 210 selections, 30 winners, SP return of $162.75, SP POT = -23%, Luxbet BOB return of $188.20, BOB POT = -10%

 

Score a $100 Free Bet from Luxbet!

Rules (as per January 29  introductory column)

(1) A ‘track rating range’ for which the tip will be considered valid will accompany selections.

(2) Results refer to a win-only bet at the bookmakers’ starting price (SP) or Luxbet’s ‘Best of Best’ (BOB) price divided into two groups– those where the SP is $5.50 or less (which are NOT recommended bets), and those where the SP is $6 or greater (which constitute recommended bets).

 

Saturday December 3

Caulfield (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 6 No. 1 Catapulted

I’ve been a fan of this Mark Kavanagh-trained sprinter for quite some time now, and his last start fifth (beaten just over a length) to Sister Madly in the Group 2 Salinger Stakes suggests that his best form is within sight. His overall record is excellent: ten wins and five seconds from 24 starts, including three wins at this distance and one (at Group level) over the distance at Caulfield. Indeed, you only have to go back five starts to see that he was 58-kilo top weight and favourite for the Group 1 Oakleigh Plate in the autumn, so the 60 kilo impost is quite fair for an open handicap.

Race 7 No. 7 Zeftabaa

This mare was excellent (and a shade unlucky) when running second to Let’s Be Happy at Moonee Valley, with the winner coming out and franking the form line with another win at Sandown Hillside last week. Prior to that second placing, this mare was an unlucky sixth behind Inablitz at Geelong and second to Born To Rock (defeating Inablitz comfortably) at Moonee Valley. She has three wins and four seconds from ten runs at the trip and won her only attempt thus far at the Caulfield 1200-metre journey. In a race without much obvious speed I think she can cross and position herself near the leaders and then prove hard to hold out in the straight.

Race 8 No. 11 Under The Hat 

I have a great deal of respect for the top two in this race, but when they carry 56 (after the claim) and 58 kilos respectively compared to 51.5 (after the claim), I have to go with the lighter weighted horse. He resumes here after a strong autumn campaign that saw him win twice in restricted grade and narrowly lose to December Draw in open company at Flemington over 1600 metres when only receiving 1.5 kilos from the subsequent Group 1 winner. He has won two of his three first-up runs to date in a career that has so far yielded four wins and three placings from just ten starts, including two wins over this trip.

 

Rosehill (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 6 No. 7 Fibrillation

Runner up in the Group 1 Stormqueen Classic and fourth in the Group 1 AJC Oaks as a three year-old in the autumn, I was impressed by the way this mare hit the line when third to Kontiki Park in her first run of the preparation. She also boasts a win over the boys, defeating the open age males (including subsequent Metropolitan Handicap winner The Verminator) in an 1800-metre race when slugged with 56 kilos as a three year-old filly. Much like Under The Hat in Melbourne, she might be untapped and on the up. Now seems like a good time to be jumping on board.

 

 

Score a $100 Free Bet from Luxbet!

Just a reminder that Making The Nut is very pleased to have had Luxbet recently come on board as a sponsor of the site.

Luxbet is offering a free $100 bet (literally a bet to nothing) if you sign up to their website either via the banner below or text links above. Just sign up and win (or not lose, as the case may be) on your free bet! Such patronage will alsohelp this site to grow in stature over time.

Luxbet offer a wide variety of bet types when it comes to thoroughbred racing. In particular, for something as simple as a win-only bet on any given race, there are a number of different odds options that can be taken. For reasons I’ve previously articulated in some detail, their ‘Best of Best’ odds option is my personal favourite. You can certainly do a lot better than the SP when you’re betting with Luxbet.

 

Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo