Dream On

“This is outrageous. My mind is spinning. I need this shit to be locked tight. With women and work to deal with, I need this, man!” – GjayBee, January 27, 2011 (DreamTeamTalk.com)

Can you identify with this feeling? The insecurity and paranoia that come with finalising your Dream Team list can chew away at you from the inside out, leaving you feeling even more anxious than usual as the first lockout of the season closes fast.

Sleep can be hard to come by as you trade and tinker ‘til all hours of the morning, a scenario exacerbated by the fleeting and incomplete nature of pre-season coverage in the mainstream media.

Who’s injured and who’s being rested? Will ‘he’ get the chance to roam off half-back, picking up cheap touches, or find himself in a forward stopping role unlikely to result in big DT scores…? Can a draftee really be expected to make a big impact first year out?

So, you lurk in chat rooms and on message boards, combing the ‘net for an angle you haven’t already considered. Who should you trust? Your instinct or that of a bloke behind a keyboard at the other end of the continent?

How will the bye impact on your selections? Have you chosen enough ‘dual-position players’ to allow you to shuffle the deck to cover absences? Do you spend every penny of your budget or keep some stashed for the proverbial rainy day?

Questions, questions, questions… and I’m sorry to say I’ve got very few of the answers at this stage.

I’ve now got what amounts to my final cut, but even it is subject to change come next Wednesday and the announcement of squads for Round 1 (which starts next Thursday night with the Carlton vs. Richmond blockbuster).

Whether it proves to my detriment or not, I’ve ignored suggestions of potential strategies (e.g. guns/rookies or mid-price across the board) and am currently playing by feel.

Trying to evaluate what players may or may not do during the next 24 weeks amounts to nothing more than crystal ball gazing, but I’ve gone in with a few rules to keep myself honest.

Players in my Round 1 combination are players I’m confident will get a start in their side's best 22 (or best 21, given the AFL’s substitute rule in 2011). They’re not all likely to play every week, but they don’t have to be, either.

Part of any Dream Teamer’s plan should be to capitalise on rookies and other players who are underpriced.

If this is a result of a long-term injury ruining 2010, you may consider it dangerous. If they’re underpriced as a result of limited opportunity in 2010, you’d want to be pretty sure things have changed in their favour over the summer – a change of club can often lead to increased game time, but even this can be risky (e.g. former Collingwood ruckman Josh Fraser (approx. $230,000) or Bulldogs recruit Pat Veszpremi (approx. $205,000).

With Gold Coast’s entry into the AFL this year, there’s no end of well-priced ‘no-names’ who should be on your radar. David Swallow most-certainly fits this category, while the likes of Matera, Bennell and Harris will also grace plenty of Dream Teams.

There looks to be value in Pies’ recruit Andrew Krakouer (approx. $140,000) as he’ll undoubtedly play from Round 1 and I like the looks of Chris Knights (approx. $220,000) and Drew Petrie (approx. $210,000) who are both coming off injury-plagued seasons and have the wherewithal to bring quality scores to the table.

A quandary that has beset me the past couple of weeks is what to do with West Coast Eagles midfielder Daniel Kerr, an elite midfielder with a sub-$200,000 price-tag.

Having ripped his hammy away from the bone last year, as well as suffering under a heavy tag and the occasional brain explosion, Kerr’s stocks have dropped from dizzying heights a couple of years back.

As a result he is super-duper cheap going into 2011. There looks to be an upside here, but it’s not exactly a safe play. Take Kerr and he plays a solid month, his price soars and you can trade-up (or you can sit on him and watch the points roll in as long as he’s contributing anything near his best).

Take Kerr and he continues to stagnate and you not only have to burn a trade, you’re looking at a lottery as to who to pick next – priced at under $200,000, you’re only getting a shot at a low/mid-range player as his substitute.

I’ve opted against picking Kerr for now, but he’s such a low price that he’s definitely staying on the radar during the first few weeks in case I need to make a shuffle or two.

As for other little rules I’ve made myself, a definite ‘no-no’ is picking any more than two players on the same line from the one club. This has been strictly enforced and applies particularly where two ‘gun’ players are being considered.

For example, you’re leaving yourself exposed if you’ve got Joel Selwood and Jimmy Bartel in your midfield when the Cats come to their first bye. Ditto for Swan and Pendlebury. Franklin and Rioli. Goddard and Gilbert.

Confused yet? If not, maybe a little consideration of the importance of dual-position players (DPPs) will do the trick!

Got a Goddard or a Gibbs in your backline? How about Chapman or Pavlich up front? Well, if you do, you can sit safe in the knowledge that you’ve got midfield cover there if ever you need it.

Just keep a likely type, be they rookie or otherwise, on the bench and when you shuffle the deck you’re still likely to get 22 scoring players every week. And that alone will be vital to your chances of winning on a weekly basis.

Feel like I’ve been stating the obvious here? Well, I guess I have. None of this will be news for anyone who’s planning to have a real crack at Dream Team glory this year. You'll have read the countless advice columns and poured over the pre-season Footy Record for an inkling as to decisions that will serve you best.

I'm not about to name my whole squad on this forum – I don't profess to being an expert, more an honest 'tryer', and don't want to be held accountable if you follow me down the gurgler.

So go study your own form, scour injury lists and juggle the million-and-one permutations that go into selecting your squad of 33.

Have fun. I’ll see you in dream land.

 

Thanks to Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images AsiaPac for his picture of Dream Team superstar Dane Swan.