February 16 Golf Selections

Filed in Other by on February 16, 2011

After Miguel Angel Jimenez failed to bring me closer to financial independence for a second consecutive week, we leave the European Tour behind temporarily (at least for gambling purposes – there’s still an event this week) and move to the Northern Trust Open (USPGA Tour) as a number of the world’s best golfers use this tournament as a final tune-up for the World Golf Championships (WGC) Matchplay event in Arizona next week. To recap, similar principles to those which apply for “Sting’s racing selections” will be in place here – bets will only be recommended for a top-5 finish in the tournament of that week (as predicting tournament winners carries with it a perilously low strike rate) where the price offered is $6 or better, with odds offered by Centrebet being used in the analysis.

Results for February 10 selections

Miguel Angel Jimenez (Dubai Desert Classic): T-40

Year to date selection results:Three selections, no collects.

Northern Trust Open

This week the USPGA Tour stays in California but heads south from the Monterey Peninsula to Southern California and the Riviera Country Club, a classic design which was the site of the 1995 USPGA Championship that was taken out by Australian Steve Elkington. The field for this week is a strong one, with more than half of the world’s top 50 players teeing it up this week before reconvening in Arizona next week for some matchplay action. Wet conditions are expected to extend from the opening round on Thursday through to the weekend, although conditions may improve by the final round on Sunday. With the forecast rain expected to make an already lengthy par-71 course (around 7,300 yards, or almost 6,700 metres) play even longer, the focus will gravitate towards those who can hit long, high and handsome shots. According to PGATOUR.COM fantasy columnist Rob Bolton, greens in regulation and birdies or betters on par-4s are top priorities, as Riviera ranked fifth overall in both stats a year ago.

On the back of all of these things, I’m going to overlook a potential minor injury niggle and select World number six Paul Casey. His last start was a missed cut at Qatar two weeks back, but as flagged last week, that was a weird tournament where World number one Lee Westwood missed the cut and World number two Martin Kaymer made the cut right on the number. At his prior start, Casey won the Volvo Golf Champions tournament on the European Tour. During the 2010 USPGA Tour season, Casey had three top-3 finishes and seven top-10 finishes from 17 starts, finishing in the top quarter of players on tour for both driving distance and greens in regulation, the top 20 for birdie average and third overall in scoring average. His only start in this event in the last five years was in 2008, where he finished tied for 22nd.

There is one key word of caution on Casey – he wrote the following on his Twitter page on Monday: "Waiting for the chiropractor. Popped something in my neck over the weekend. Going to get it all sorted before flying to LA." While his attitude towards the injury seems pretty nonchalant, it's still worth nothing and therefore you should approach any wager on Casey with a touch of caution. Nonetheless, the $6.60 on offer is sufficiently generous for me to step in.

Finally, a reminder that Making The Nut will be bringing you a full-fledged preview of the WGC Matchplay early next week, including recommended odds for all first round matches, bracket winners and the overall tournament winner, as well as player ratings for all 64 combatants that can be used to price up matches in later rounds

Thanks to Ross Kinnaird/Getty Images Europe for use of the photo

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