February 3 Golf Selections
Welcome to what will hopefully be a semi-regular piece where golf bets for the upcoming USPGA tour and/ or European tour event are recommended. Similar principles to those which apply for “Sting’s racing selections” will be in place here – bets will only be recommended for a top-5 finish in the tournament of that week (as predicting tournament winners carries with it a perilously low strike rate) where the price offered is $6 or better. Fortunately, thanks to the good people at Centrebet, such pre-post odds are typically available from Tuesday evening through to the commencement of the tournament. We kick things off with selections for the Phoenix Open (USPGA Tour) and the Qatar Masters (European Tour).
Phoenix Open
The annual pilgrimage to the TPC at Scottsdale for this tournament is famous for two things in particular: (1) the final day of tournament play often coinciding with the Super Bowl; and (2) the stadium-like atmosphere at the par-3 16th hole, where raucous fans are far from shy about expressing their appreciation for a great approach shot or disdain when the green is missed or a short putt fails to find the hole. It is also a course where good scoring tends to prevail – barring unfavourable weather, it can be expected that the winning score will be well into double digits to the better of par, and thus birdies and aggressive play will be the order of the day. This brings me rather neatly to Bubba Watson. In wining at Torrey Pines last week, he led the field at the in both distance off the tee and greens hit, missing just four greens in regulation (GIR) over the final 36 holes. Despite vaulting to number 18 on the world rankings, Centrebet are willing to offer $8.50 about Watson finishing in the top-5 this week. Why so? The theory goes that he is a loose cannon and unlikely to show consistency from one week to the next. That theory is outdated – check out his record on the PGA Tour prior to 2010 and how it contrasts with the past 13 months:
USPGA Tour record up to the end of 2009– 108 starts, no wins, four top-3 finishes (ranked 102ndin the world as at December 2009).
USPGA Tour record in 2010 and 2011– 25 starts, two wins, five top-3 finishes (ranked 18th in the world right now).
Watson’s career has turned the corner, only bookmakers haven’t adjusted their markets as yet, which means that now is the right time to strike. Go Bubba.
Qatar Masters
There is a significant contrast in styles between the TPC at Scottsdale and the Doha Golf Club in Qatar. Nonetheless, for depth of elite players I think that the European Tour gets the nod this week. The Doha course is far from lengthy by modern standards and despite the fact that it has essentially been built on desert land, water comes into play on a significant number of holes, making this course a test of precision more so than power. This makes it a nice fit for 46-year old Miguel Angel Jimenez, a man who continues to defy both his age and the health issues generally associated with frequent smoking of cigars and remain a force to be reckoned with on the world scene (currently ranked 23rd in the world). After winning three times on the European Tour in 2010, he has kept the momentum going with a last start second at Volvo Golf Champions after an eleventh at the Abu Dhabi Championship. In the 2010 Qatar Masters, Jimenez finished a disappointing 66th. However, this can be considered an aberration when analysing Jimenez’s performances in the Middle East – he won the Dubai Desert Classic the subsequent week and in 2009 finished T-5 in Qatar and T-7 in Dubai. The precision over power aspect of the Doha course also provides a nice fit – in 2010 Jimenez was ranked 130th in driving distance but 22nd in fairways hit and perhaps more importantly, third in putts per GIR. If Jimenez (also known as “The Mechanic”) can get the flat stick going in Qatar, those who took the odds of $6.60 about a top-5 finish may find themselves off to a profitable start to 2011.
