February 5 Racing Selections

Filed in Horse Racing, The Sting's Racing Selections by on February 3, 2011

Before we get to selections for the February 5 meetings at Caulfield, Rosehill, Doomben and Morphetville, a quick recap of both the rules and the promising results arising from the January 29 selections to get things started.

Rules

(1) Selections will generally be posted on the Friday for a Saturday meeting (though on occasions tips may not be posted until race day).

(2) Selections will be accompanied by a ‘track rating range’ for which the tip will be considered valid.

(3) Results will be based on a win-only bet at the bookmakers’ starting price (SP), and will be split into two groups– those where the SP is $6 or greater (Group 1), and those where the SP is $5.50 or less (Group 2).

Results for January 29

Invalid tips (due to scratchings and/ or track ratings that were outside the prescribed range)

Nil

Tips where the SP was $5.50 or less

Sandown Hillside – Abitofado ($3.90 SP) – unplaced

Randwick – All Legal ($4.00) – won

Randwick – Tierqualo ($5.50) – second

Doomben – Ollie Vollie ($2.80) – won

Doomben – Funtantes ($5.00) – unplaced

Morphetville Parks – Outlandish Lad ($3.60) – third

Overall Results: Six selections, two winners, SP return of $6.80, profit on turnover (POT) = 13%

Tips where the SP was $6 or greater

Sandown Hillside – Simply Put ($8.50 SP) – won

Overall Results: One selections, one winner, SP return of $8.50, profit on turnover (POT) = 750%

 

And with that, we move on to the selections for this Saturday:

Saturday February 5

Caulfield (tips based on a track rating range of good 3 to dead 6)

Race 5 No. 2 Fashion Black

She was a last start flop when racing over 2000 metres for the second time in her career, almost certainly proving that she can’t handle such a trip, and therefore drops back to the 1700 metres today. Remove those two flops at 2000 metres as well as her three first-up runs from a spell and you’re left with four wins in five starts, including wins at her second and third last runs over 1630 and 1700 metres. I expect her to bounce back.

Race 6 No. 6 Winter King

In the spring he finished second (beaten only 1.3 lengths) to Black Caviar in the Group 2 Schillaci Stakes at WFA at this track and distance. He resumed this preparation with a third placing behind Pinwheel in the Canterbury Classic, a race that Blackfriars came out of and subsequently won the Australia Stakes at Moonee Valley. That’s the form line I want to be following in what shapes up to be a terrific race between some quality sprinters.

Race 7 No. 6 Zauberin

Ordinarily a horse attempting to win a 2000 metre race second-up would worry me, but Russell Cameron has a knack for bringing stayers to hand quickly. A first-up winner over 1600 metres, Zauberin had country cups form through My Bentley and last start winner Red Buttons in the spring, and meets My Bentley four kilos better at the weights than in last year’s Bendigo Cup.

Race 8 No. 4 Pins On Ice

Her last start run was a complete ‘forgive’ performance – she had 57 kg and drew barrier 15, over-racing before tiring in the straight. She’s had a brief freshen up and this time has 54 kg and barrier six. Two starts back she beat Lady Gaga at this 1400 metre trip and also has form through the promising Aloha at this track and distance.

Rosehill (tips based on a track rating range of good 3 to dead 6)

Race 4 No. 1 Ironstein

Now facing his fourth run back from a spell after rising is distance from 1400 to 1900 metres last start, expect the additional race fitness to serve Ironstein well in this race. During the winter of 2010 he won the Listed Caloundra Cup and was third in the Listed Grafton Cup and should be able to race handy to the speed from barrier 4 before figuring prominently in the finish.

Doomben (tips based on a track rating range of good 3 to dead 6)

Race 7 No. 6 Red Sphere

This race is likely to come down to a battle of tactics between the three main contenders (Red Sphere, Fifteen Carat and Steel Lips). I expect Red Sphere to be the closest of the three to the leaders in a race devoid of any obvious speed and therefore lean his way. His last start second placing behind The Jackal was excellent and his record of two wins and two placing from four starts and the track and distance also warrants respect.

Morphetville (tips based on a track rating range of good 3 to dead 6)

Race 7 No. 2 Midnight Mustang

In a race that lacks depth beyond the likely favourite Rock The Moment and the injury-plagued Midnight Mustang, I’m leaning toward the latter on the back of his record at the track and distance – two starts for two wins. He should also take some benefit from his first-up run in Melbourne, where he finished 3.4 lengths behind the very good sprinter First Command – there are no horses of his calibre lining up in this race.

Race 8 No. 11 Kert

The likely favourite in this race (Foxham) hasn’t raced for eight weeks (usually a bad sign for an 1800 metre event) and won his last two starts in RB86 and RB82 races respectively. Meanwhile, Ket ran second to Tears I Cry (who subsequently won at Flemington) and then ran second to Cabeza (who is aiming for a third straight win in Race 7 at Caulfield today) in a slightly better RB89 race two weeks ago. He’s likely to have greater ‘race fitness’ than the expected favourite and has been racing against slightly better quality opposition, and will almost certainly be at far more generous odds.

Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo

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Comments (2)

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  1. Cliff Bingham says:

    Caulfield abandoned due to heavy rain and state of the track. Midnight Mustang also scratched from 7th at Morphetville.

    • Cliff Bingham says:

      Only 3 starters after scratchings and abandoned meetings:

      Ironstein ($5.00 SP) – third

      Red Sphere ($3.10 SP) – unplaced

      Kert ($6.50 SP) – third