July 23 Racing Selections and Midyear Report Card

Tips for this weekend cover the July 23 meetings at Flemington and Eagle Farm. However, before we get to the tips for this weekend, it is high time for a midyear report card. The news in not great I’m afraid – after a fast start that saw the profit/ loss sheet looking in excellent order around mid April, the decline has been a swift one. The cold hard figures make for some unhappy reading, albeit that some important lessons can be garnered from them.

 

Selection results by state

Victoria: 40 selections, six winners, SP return of $34.90, POT = -13%

New South Wales: 30 selections, five winners, SP return of $34.00, POT = +13%

Queensland: 30 selections, six winners, SP return of $21.80, POT = -27%

South Australia: 17 selections, two winners, SP return of $8.20, POT = -52%

Assessment: Probably not enough information as yet to derive whether results are clearly better in one state than in others, particular once you’ve allowed for the impact of picking more short-priced horses in some states than others. For example, the average SP of my winners in Queensland is just over $3.60, while the relevant average for New South Wales is $6.80. Therefore, I suspect the disparities in results by state are being driven more by the odds of each selection rather than any state being easier (or harder) to find winners in.

 

Selection results by Bookmakers’ Starting Price (SP)

SP of less than $4.00: 24 selections, seven winners, SP return of $23.00, POT = -4%

SP of $4.00 to $5.50: 40 selections, six winners, SP return of $27.40, POT = -32%

SP of $6.00 to $9.50: 32 selections, five winners, SP return of $37.50, POT = +17%

SP of $10.00 or greater: 21 selections, one winner, SP return of $11.00, POT = -48%

Assessment: The results for short priced selections are not surprising. As was noted in the very first of these columns back in January, my personal strike rate of backing winners does not shift as steeply as the bookmakers’ boards would suggest it should, meaning that I don’t find the right hotpots as often as otherwise expected, but do a decent job of finding horses at longer odds.

The results for the $6.00 to $9.50 range are heartening. The results for the $10.00 or longer group are highly sensitive to adding (or dare I say it, subtracting!) a single winner, so I am reluctant to draw conclusions about this group until at least 50 such tips have been made and the ‘sample size’ is a little more robust.

 

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This column has also noted on numerous previous occasions that many a corporate bookmaker offers an odds service (or indeed, services) where the available corporate price exceeds the SP. Any corporate bookie worth their license will offer you ‘top fluctuation’ (TF) in the period more than 30 minutes before the race jumps, while many offer a product along the lines of either best tote price or the better of best tote/ bookmaker SP.

However, to the best of my knowledge (and I stand to be corrected here), only Luxbet’s ‘Best of Best’ price offers punters the better of top fluctuation AND best tote within the one bet option. Consistent with your typical arrangements for top fluctuation bets, this market closes around 30 minutes before a race, with other markets offered by Luxbet continuing to be available until race time. While this means that any such ‘Best of Best’ wager must occur before any official bookmaker odds fluctuations come to hand, pre-post fixed odds markets (provided by Luxbet among others) usually provide a strong indication as to the likely on course fluctuations.

Let us revisit the SP results for 2011 tips to date, using both top fluctuation and Luxbet’s ‘Best of Best’ prices to assess the sorts of returns achievable using the same set of tips.

 

Selection results sorted by bookmakers’ starting price (SP) – using bookmakers’ top fluctuation (TF) and Luxbet’s ‘Best of Best’ (BOB) odds to determine returns and POT

SP of less than $4.00: 24 selections, TF return of $27.50, TF POT = +8%, BOB return of $27.50, BOB POT = +15%

SP of $4.00 to $5.50: 40 selections, TF return of $30.70, TF POT = -23%, BOB return of $32.00, BOB POT = -20%

SP of $6.00 to $9.50: 32 selections, TF return of $43.50, TF POT = +36%, BOB return of $43.60, BOB POT = +36%

SP of $10.00 or greater: 21 selections, TF return of $11.00, TF POT = -48%, BOB return of $14.00, BOB POT = -33%

Assessment: What a difference getting set for the best price makes! The dollars returned to punter’s pockets have increased (from the SP level) by almost 20 per cent for tips where the SP was less than $4.00, around 16 to 17 per cent for the next two groups and 27 per cent for the ‘long shots’ group. Admittedly, this last group is based on a solitary winner, but nonetheless I was delighted to get $14.00 about Zingaling rather than $11.00!

Do you know what the best part of highlighting these results is? I will continue to report SP results – promises are promises, after all. However, I can now also report results that (a) promote our new partner Luxbet and their excellent racing odds product and (b) look substantially more like my own results, where the short-priced horses are ignored and the horses at $6 or greater are backed using either the BOB product or occasionally a Saturday morning pre-post market.

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Results for July 16

Invalid tips (due to scratchings and/ or track ratings that were outside the prescribed range)

Rosehill – Sikka (scratched)

Tips where the SP was $5.50 or less

Eagle Farm – Warm Love ($3.60 SP) – third

Rosehill – Talapega ($5.50) – unplaced

Doomben – Win A Million ($2.00) – unplaced

July 16 Results: Three selections, no winners

Overall Results: 64 selections, 13 winners, SP return of $50.40, SP POT = -21%, Luxbet BOB return of $59.50, BOB POT = -7%

Tips where the SP was $6 or greater

Nil

July 16 Results: No selections, no winners

Overall Results: 53 selections, six winners, SP return of $48.50, SP POT = -8%, Luxbet BOB return of $57.60, BOB POT = +9%

All tips

Overall Results: 117 selections, 19 winners, SP return of $98.90, SP POT = -15%, Luxbet BOB return of $117.10, BOB POT = +0%

 

Rules

(1) A ‘track rating range’ for which the tip will be considered valid will accompany selections.

(2) Results refer to a win-only bet at the bookmakers’ starting price (SP) or Luxbet’s ‘Best of Best’ (BOB) price divided into two groups– those where the SP is $5.50 or less (Group 1), and those where the SP is $6 or greater (Group 2).

 

Saturday July 23

Flemington (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 3 No. 3 La Rocket

I am going to take on the progressive type (and likely favourite) Module with this Dale Sutto- trained conveyance. He had three runs back from a spell and should now be reaching full race fitness – indeed, his promising seventh-place finish in the Listed Winter Championship Final suggested his best form is rapidly approaching. Last spring he took on a number of races of far more quality than this one, so don’t be too thrown off by a recent record that looks underwhelming at first glance. With only 55 kgs (the lightest weight he has carried in some time) on his back after the claim, expect him to roll forward and take some holding out.

Race 7 No. 7 Testacana

It is tough to go past the Peter Moody stable these days. Especially when he produces a last start winner who now has six wins and five placings from just 14 starts, including a win carrying 58 kgs at his only start over this journey. With 53.5 kgs today, a good barrier draw (barrier six) and a distinct lack of competition for a spot near the front of the field in running, I expect that he and Carnero will fight out the finish, with the better draw/ proven 1600-metre record making me lean his way.

Race 8 No. 3 Two Hills

This mare returns to racing against her own gender after a solid fourth placing behind Beyond Pardon when taking on the boys last start at Moonee Valley. She has a win and two placings from four starts over the 1400-metre journey, with the aforementioned win coming at this track over the quality mare Avenius. Importantly, she tends to improve significantly with a couple of runs under her belt, posting two wins and a placing from 13 starts first or second up, but five wins and 12 placings from 21 starts later in her preparation. Third-up into this race, barrier three, D. Oliver on board and should put herself into the race easily enough – with even luck, she will take some beating.

 

Eagle Farm (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 7 No. 4 Mystical Grey

I was tossing up between this horse and Frozone, but Frozone’s last couple of efforts when carrying bigger weights have me a little wary, so will opt for the grey gelding who powered home to a strong victory two starts back with 59.5 kgs. Indeed, before his fifth-place finish behind Woorim in the Listed Glasshouse Handicap three weeks ago, this plucky grey had strung together four wins on end, including one at Listed level. He is also becoming something of an Eagle Farm specialist, with two wins and a second from just the three starts at the track. With the tempo likely to be a strong one, expect him to be powering home late in the race.

 

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For reasons this particular column has articulated in some detail, their ‘Best of Best’ odds option is my personal favourite. If you take nothing else away from this article, at least take away the knowledge that you can do a lot better than the SP when you’re betting with Luxbet.

 

Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo

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