July 9 Racing Selections
Tips for this weekend cover the July 9 meetings at Flemington, Eagle Farm and Morphetville Parks. With my current run of ‘outs’ on horses priced $6 or greater now at 28 such selections since Once Were Wild won on April 9, surely the three month anniversary of this winner will signal a change of luck? Right? Please agree with me….. thank you.
Results for July 2
Invalid tips (due to scratchings and/ or track ratings that were outside the prescribed range)
Nil
Tips where the SP was $5.50 or less
Moonee Valley – Rue Maple ($3.60 SP) – second
Morphetville – Brad Star ($3.60) – unplaced
July 2 Results: Two selections, no winners
Overall Results: 60 selections, 13 winners, SP return of $50.40, profit on turnover (POT) = -16%
Tips where the SP was $6 or greater
Moonee Valley – Fashion Black ($14.00 SP) – unplaced
Rosehill – Sniper’s Bullet ($14.00) – unplaced
Sunshine Coast – Listen Son ($10.00) – unplaced
July 2 Results: Three selections, no winners
Overall Results: 51 selections, five winners, SP return of $42.00, profit on turnover (POT) = -18%
All tips
Overall Results: 111 selections, 18 winners, SP return of $92.40, profit on turnover (POT) = -17%
Rules
(1) A ‘track rating range’ for which the tip will be considered valid will accompany selections.
(2) Results refer to a win-only bet at the bookmakers’ starting price (SP) divided into two groups– those where the SP is $5.50 or less (Group 1), and those where the SP is $6 or greater (Group 2).
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Saturday July 9
Flemington (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 7 No. 3 Perturbo
Something of a straight track specialist, I love his recent form lines. He was comfortable last start winner over 1000 metres at this track. Prior to that, he was edged out by the quality sprinter Dubleanny at this track and trip and ran fourth to Black Caviar (say no more) in the Group 1 William Reid Handicap. With Second Effort and Beyond Pardon likely to set a solid tempo up front, expect him to powering home late in the piece.
Eagle Farm (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 4 No. 6 Zippy Lou
This mare is one of a number of horses in this race dropping in class from previous starts over the Brisbane winter carnival – she finished well down the track in the Group 1 Tattersall’s Tiara last start and prior to that was beaten three lengths in the Listed Gai Waterhouse Classic at Ipswich. She is also untested at 1500 metres, with her longest win to date coming over the 1350- metre trip. So why tip her? Well, apart from her excellent overall record (seven wins and three placings from just 14 starts), to my mind the most compelling argument is the lack of pace in the race. She should be able to roll forward and get a comfortable, perhaps even soft, lead in running. And with only 53 kgs on her back after the claim, she may take some running down.
Morphetville Parks (tips based on a track rating range of dead 4 to slow 7)
Race 7 No. 8 Lexcen
The big thing is his favour here is the pull in the weights over some of the fancied runners (he will carry 52.5 kgs after the claim, compared to 58.5 kgs for Candle and 57.5 kgs for Sheedy). Moreover, his middling overall record improves substantially when you consider his runs over the 1400-metre journey – two wins from three such attempts, including two from two at this track and trip. He does need strong speed in his races in order to unleash a powerful finishing burst, but with a few speedy types engaged here, I expect him to get it. Look for him to be flashing home late.
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