June 18 Racing Selections
With the highpoint of the Queensland winter carnival now behind us, attention turns to the Queensland provincial circuit for the next two Saturdays, starting with the Ipswich Cup meeting. Tips for this weekend cover the June 18 meetings at Ipswich and also Moonee Valley.
Results for June 11
Invalid tips (due to scratchings and/ or track ratings that were outside the prescribed range)
Randwick – Montana Flyer, Title (track rating outside prescribed rnage)
Tips where the SP was $5.50 or less
Flemington – Big Spirit ($4.00 SP) – unplaced
Eagle Farm – Willy Jimmy ($5.00) – Won
Eagle Farm – Love Conquers All ($5.00) – unplaced
June 11 Results: Three selections, one winner, SP return of $5.00
Overall Results: 55 selections, 12 winners, SP return of $46.80, profit on turnover (POT) = -15%
Tips where the SP was $6 or greater
Flemington – Titus Vinius ($6.00 SP) – unplaced
Eagle Farm – Beethog ($11.00) – unplaced
June 11 Results: Two selections, no winners
Overall Results: 43 selections, five winners, SP return of $42.00, profit on turnover (POT) = -2%
All tips
Overall Results: 98 selections, 17 winners, SP return of $88.80, profit on turnover (POT) = -9%
Rules
(1) A ‘track rating range’ for which the tip will be considered valid will accompany selections.
(2) Results refer to a win-only bet at the bookmakers’ starting price (SP) divided into two groups– those where the SP is $5.50 or less (Group 1), and those where the SP is $6 or greater (Group 2).
Saturday June 18
Moonee Valley (tips based on a track rating range of dead 4 to slow 7)
Race 5 No. 4 Riveted
Here is a horse well suited by both the rain –affected going and the distance (he has two wins and three placings from his five runs at the journey). A winner of the Casterton Cup over this distance two starts ago, he dropped back to 1700 metres last Saturday when running a solid fourth behind the promising Euphoric Realm. With only 53 kgs on his back after the claim and his likely role as leader in the run, I think he’ll take some running down on the short Moonee Valley home straight.
Race 6 No. 6 Rue Maple
She is a mare who is building up a very solid racing record, with four wins and five placings from just the 13 starts. Her record over the 1200 metres at Moonee Valley is even more impressive – two wins and a third from three attempts. She ran second to Mid Summer Music last start at Caufield, and she will meet that mare 6 kgs better at the weights this time around. Going back to her third last start, she was an unlucky second to a quality sprinting mare in Miss Octopussy. With the speed in this race likely to be strong and just 52.5 kgs on her back, expect her to be running on strongly late.
Race 8 No. 4 Beltrois
He should strip fitter after two runs back from a spell, both times behind Dubleanny – the form lines from the second of those runs has been franked since by Peturbo and Rocky Times. Going back to his spring 2010 campaign, he ran second to Doubtful Jack in the Group 3 Bobby Lewis Handicap, so is up to this race from a class perspective. He handles rain affected going and much as with Rue Maple in Race 6, can beexpected to be charging home late in the race.
Ipswich (tips based on a track rating range of dead 4 to slow 7)
Race 6 No. 3 Drenalin
He resumed three weeks ago with a close up fifth (beaten only 0.9 lengths) by Gundy Son in the Listed Chief De Beers Handicap, and has a record of two wins and a second from four second-up races. As noted when I tipped him in that race, he showed plenty of promise over the Queensland winter last year before heading to Melbourne in the spring and recording one win and two subpar performances. I maintain that he is better than his Melbourne results suggested. With a few speedsters who are a little suspect at the end of 1350 metres engaged here, I feel like he can camp just off the speed and power over the top of the leaders late in the race.
Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
