March 10 Golf Selections

We stay in Florida this week for the second event of the 2011 World Golf Championships – the Cadillac Championship, with the TPC Blue Monster at Doral hosting the event. To recap, similar principles to those which apply for “Sting’s racing selections” will be in place here – bets will only be recommended for a top-5 finish in the tournament of that week where the price offered is $6 or better, with odds offered by Centrebet being used in the analysis.

Results for March 3 selections

Charl Schwartzel (Honda Classic): T-14

Year to date selection results: Ten selections, no collects.

World Golf Championships – Cadillac Championship

As noted above, the USPGA Tour heads to what used to affectionately be known as the ‘Blue  Monster’, before the TPC acquired the naming rights for the course and formalised this title. Despite the name and the prevalence of water on the vast majority of holes, Doral has proven to be a course that the best players in the world can score well. Of the four courses that form part of the ‘Florida Swing’ in this part of the season, this course has ranked easiest in relation to par. This is a course where the winner will post a low score, perhaps in the region of 15-under par, and where taking advantage of the par-5s is vital. Aggressive play will be in order this week, and thus players who rank highly in birdie average and greens in regulation should be at the forefront of your mind.

At the risk of turning this column into a Bubba Watson appreciation society, he fits the bill perfectly. He leads the tour in both driving distance and greens in regulation and ranks third in ball striking, seventh in birdie average (with 4.6 birdies per round) and fourth in ‘par breakers’ (birdies or better). He also enters this event following on from a semi-final appearance at the WGC Matchplay – I’m still bitter that his injury concerns convinced me not to take the $19 odds about him winning his bracket and making the semis. As noted in the February 3 golf tips column, the theory still goes that Watson is a loose cannon and unlikely to show consistency from one week to the next. That theory is outdated – check out his record on the PGA Tour prior to 2010 and the contrast with the past 15 months:

USPGA Tour record up to the end of 2009– 108 starts, no wins, four top-3 finishes (ranked 102^nd in the world as at December 2009).

USPGA Tour record in 2010 and 2011– 28 starts, two wins, five top-3 finishes and a WGC semi-final appearance (ranked 15^th in the world right now).

Centrebet are willing to offer $10.00 about Watson finishing in the top-5 this week – that will do quite nicely. As per the February 3 tips column: “Watson’s career has turned the corner, only bookmakers haven’t adjusted their markets as yet, which means that now is the right time to strike. Go Bubba.”

Thanks to Andy Lyons/Getty Images North America for use of the photo