March 12 Racing Selections
Racing tips this week will cover the March 12 meetings at Flemington and Warwick Farm, as the meetings at Doomben and Morphetville Parks did not appeal from a betting perspective. Before we get to that, another reminder about the ways in which the punter can get a better deal than the Starting Price (SP) used for results presented here. Previously this column has touched on the potential benefits of analysing Saturday morning pre-post markets. Last Saturday highlighted the potential benefits of using top fluctuation markets, or at least betting during the course of these fluctuations (typically in the final 20 to 30 minutes before a race jumps). Jersey Lily opened in official markets at $5.00 and drifted out to odds of $6.50 before shortening back in to a starting price of $5.000 before saluting the judge. Those who took top fluctuation therefore received odds that were $1.50 better than the starting price listed below – just another little thing to keep in mind when trying to eek out small advantages over the bookmaking fraternity.
Results for March 5
Invalid tips (due to scratchings and/ or track ratings that were outside the prescribed range)
Warwick Farm Race 7 (she ran in Race 8 instead)– Avienus
Tips where the SP was $5.50 or less
Warwick Farm – Latin News ($5.00 SP) – unplaced
Warwick Farm – Jersey Lily ($5.00) – Won
Morphetville – Time Matters ($5.00) – second
March 5 Results: Three selections, one winner, SP return of $5.00
Overall Results: 20 selections, six winners, SP return of $23.40, profit on turnover (POT) = 17%
Tips where the SP was $6 or greater
Flemington – Dane Julia ($20.00 SP) – unplaced
March 5 Results: One selection, no winners
Overall Results: 14 selections, one winner, SP return of $8.50, profit on turnover (POT) = -39%
All tips
Overall Results: 34 selections, seven winners, SP return of $31.90, profit on turnover (POT) = -6%
Rules
(1) Selections will be accompanied by a ‘track rating range’ for which the tip will be considered valid.
(2) Results will be based on a win-only bet at the bookmakers’ starting price (SP), and will be split into two groups– those where the SP is $5.50 or less (Group 1), and those where the SP is $6 or greater (Group 2).
Here are the selections for this Saturday:
Saturday March 12
Flemington (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 7 No. 1 Shocking
You only need to know one key thing about Shocking – he is a Flemington horse. It is that simple. Away from Flemington, he has had 19 starts for two wins and seven placings. At Flemington he has had seven starts for four wins, a photo-finish second to Zipping in the 2010 Turnbull Stakes and unplaced runs in the 2010 Mackinnon Stakes (his final tune-up for a tilt at a second Melbourne Cup victory) and the Melbourne Cup itself (where he pulled up lame). In light of this, you can forgive his seemingly middling runs at Caulfield this preparation and assume improvement derived from increased race fitness, finally getting out to a suitable trip and most importantly, returning to his favoured track.
Race 8 No. 2 Lady Lynette
It’s tempting to tip the promising three year old filly Pinker Pinker here, but the SWP nature of this race sees her treated quite harshly with 55.5 kgs against the older mares, so I’m going for the proven commodity in Lady Lynette. Her overall records stands at 12 wins and 11 placings from 34 starts, but if you subtract her first and second up runs it improves to eight wins and eight placings from 20 starts. She is third up tomorrow after two wins in Tasmania to kick off her campaign, has recorded three wins and three placings from six starts at the 1600 metre trip and from barrier two should be able to push forward in a race devoid of great speed and prove hard to hold out at the finish.
Race 9 No. 7 Offenders
He broke a run of outs last start with a victory at this track and trip, taking his record over 1400 metres to three wins and four placings from eight starts and his record over the 1400 metres at Flemington to two wins and three placings from five starts. With the inside barrier and only 53.5 kgs to shoulder, he should be able to position himself just behind the likely leaders Danzylum and Red Flair in running and give himself every possible chance in the straight.
Warwick Farm (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 5 No. 5 Beijing Boy
Forgive his last run (where he pulled up with the thumps afterwards) and you’ve got a middle distance horse with a record of six wins and three seconds from only 12 starts in Australia, a win at his only run at Warwick Farm and a win at his only run over this journey. The last start aberration may simply mean that he gets out to generous odds for the first time in quite a while.
Race 8 No. 2 Trim
With 54.5 kgs and barrier one, she gets into this race quite favourably relative to the likely favourite Sister Madly, who will have to carry 59 kgs and cross from barrier 11. She should also have derived some additional race fitness from her first-up fifth placing (beaten two lengths) behind Kiss From A Rose in the Triscay Stakes, and has three wins (including one at Group 3 level) and four seconds from 11 starts over the 1200 metre journey. Both her and the likely favourite should push forward and be close to, or possibly setting, the early speed – I expect Trim to have a bit more petrol left in the tank in the latter stages.
Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
