March 16 Golf Selections

Filed in Other by on March 15, 2011

Week three of the four-week ‘Florida Swing’ on the USPGA Tour takes players to the Innisbrook Resort & Golf Club for the Transitions Championship. But not before I celebrate the first ‘collect’ of the season for this golf tips column…. what do you mean I’m not allowed to celebrate a refund because Bubba Watson was a late withdrawal??? Come on, just let me have this moment….

To recap, similar principles to those which apply for “Sting’s racing selections” will be in place here – bets will only be recommended for a top-5 finish in the tournament of that week where the price offered is $6 or better, with odds offered by Centrebet being used in the analysis.

Results for March 10 selections

Bubba Watson (Cadillac Championship): Did not start – bet refunded.

Year to date selection results: Eleven selections, one refund, no winning collects.

Transitions Championship

The Innisbrook course is slightly unusual in the sense in that it boasts five par-3s, along with four par-5s and nine par-4s to make an overall par of 71. Scoring well here has been difficult, with only three of the past six champions reaching 10-under or better and the average per round score in 2010 coming in at more than 71.7 (or around 0.7-over per round). Much as with the Honda Classic two weeks ago, pars are at a premium and therefore the focus should be squarely on players who have shown in the past that they can grind out par after par. It should therefore come as no surprise that the past two winners (Retief Goosen in 2009 and Jim Furyk last year) also have US Open trophies on their mantelpiece.

I think that Goosen can be a major contender for a second Transitions title. As noted above, he was the champion here in 2009 and made a strong defence of his title last year when finishing fifth. Among the myriad of statistics kept by the PGA Tour each year, there is one called ‘bogey avoidance’, which essentially tracks how often a player can make par or better. For the 2010 season, Goosen was the seventh best played on the tour in this category, making bogey or worse on only 13.4% of holes played. At $6.60 with Centrebet to finish in the top-5 for a third consecutive year, I think he is worth a wager.

Thanks to Stephen Dunn/Getty Images North America for use of the photo

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