March 24 Golf Tips

Bay Hill and the Arnold Palmer Invitational host the final leg of the ‘Florida Swing’ on the USPGA Tour, as players start to sharpen their games before the first Major of the year at Augusta in a fortnight’s time.

To recap, similar principles to those which apply for “Sting’s racing selections” will be in place here – bets will only be recommended for a top-5 finish in the tournament of that week where the price offered is $6 or better, with odds offered by Centrebet being used in the analysis.

Results for March 17 selections

Retief Goosen (Transitions Championship): T-28.

Year to date selection results:12 selections, one refund, no winning collects.

Arnold Palmer Invitational

The Bay Hill course is set up in such a way that its designer, the legendary seven-time Major winner Arnold Palmer, would have been well suited to in his heyday. It’s a long (over 7,400 yards, or closing in on 6,800 metres) par-72 course, having reverted back to a par-72 format in 2009 after three straight years as a par-70 course which offered little in the way of birdie opportunities. Ever the aggressor on the course, Palmer wanted viewers to see more in the way of birdie and eagle opportunities, and the conversion back to a par-72 course last year certainly helped in that regard. That said, the average score last year was around 0.9 strokes over par at 72.892 – outside the majors, this was the third highest among par-72 courses in 2010. While the fairways are not overly tight, an entirely reasonable stance given the length of the course, said length leads to many approach shots being played from further back in the fairway than typical, which impacts upon the percentage of greens hit in regulation.

To summarise, you should be looking for a long bomber who hits a high percentage of greens in regulation. You know, someone like the man who is leading the Tour in both driving distance (at 313.5 yards per drive) and greens in regulation (at 75.1 per cent) – an old favourite of this column after just three months, Bubba Watson.

Watson already has a win and a WGC matchplay semi-final appearance on his 2011 resume to go with a win, two second placings (include the USPGA Championship) and a third placing in 2010. He finished T-28 last week at the Transitions Championship on a course that put a far greater premium on grinding out pars, which is not his forte – on a course more conducive to his strengths, the$7.50 with Centrebet to finish in the top-5 appeals to me.

Thanks to Andy Lyons/Getty Images North America for use of the photo