March 3 Racing Selections
Tips for this weekend cover the March 3 meetings at Flemington (featuring the Group 1 Australian Guineas) and Eagle Farm.
Final report card for 2011 and revised rules for 2012 tips
Results for February 25 selections
Tips which were either scratched, outside the prescribed track conditions or too short in price
Scratched – nil
Odds too short (less than $6 SP) – nil
Tips where the SP was in the $6-$9.50 range (1 unit bets)
I’m Discreet ($7.00 SP) – second
No Evidence Needed ($9.00 SP, $9.50 BOB) – Won
Balmont ($8.00) – unplaced
February 25 results: 3 selections, 3 units bet, one winner, SP return of $9.00, BOB return of $9.50
2012 results: 15 selections, 15 units bet, one winner, SP return of $9.00 (POT = -40%), BOB return of $9.50 (POT = -37%)
Tips where the SP was in the $10+ range (0.5 unit bets)
Satin Shoes ($21.00 SP) – unplaced
February 25 results: 1 selection, no winners
2012 results: 5 selections, 2.5 units bet, no winners
Overall Results
February 25: 4 selections, 3.5 units bet, one winner, SP return of $9.00, BOB return of $9.50
2012: 20 selections, 17.5 units bet, one winner, SP return of $9.00 (POT = -49%), BOB return of $9.50 (POT = -46%)
Saturday March 3
Flemington (tips based on a track rating range of dead 4 to slow 7)
Race 5 No. 7 Niblick
In some sense he’s a pretty easy horse to figure out. You want to catch him fresh – two wins and two seconds from four first-up runs. You want him to be over 1400 metres – three wins and a second from five attempts. Ideally, you’d like him to be running at the wide open expanses of Flemington – three wins and a second from six starts. Tomorrow, you’ll have all three of those criteria met, along with a nice draw in barrier three. Need I say any more?
Race 7 No. 5 We’re Gonna Rock
A talented if occasionally wayward juvenile, the Mark Kavanagh-trained galloper has since been gelded and will hopefully return quickly to the form that saw him run second to More Joyous in a Group 1 Toorak Handicap. He has only had two goes over 1000 metres (including one down the straight) in his career and won them both, while his only first-up failure was at Group 1 WFA level last year in the Futurity Stakes. If he’s back to his best (and that’s still a significant if), I think he’ll be far too good.
Race 8 No. 3 Booklet
Taking a form line through I’m Discreet (who is on the 7-day back-up after I tipped her last week) makes this mare’s prospects in the race look quite strong. She beat I’m Discreet home when a strong second to Lady Lynette in the Group 2 Blazer Stakes over this track/ trip last October and did so again when finishing down the track in the Group 2 Tristarc Stakes at Caulfield. The run in the Tristarc was her only disappointing effort in a campaign which commenced with a late dash to nail Irish Dream on the line first-up, reinforcing her capabilities when fresh. The SWP nature of this race also gets her well at the weights relative to all bar perhaps the topweight Raspberries. Look for her to be swooping late.
Eagle Farm (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 6 No. 3 Haizum
He is really well at the weights with 54 kilos when you consider that he gave Carry To Fortune six kilos three starts back (meets her at level weights this time) and gave four kilos to Seek And Find two starts back (while Carry To Fortune, What Happenedhenry and Just Been Lucky have all received weight from that same galloper in recent times). He is something of a 1000-metre specialist, with 11 wins and five placings from 24 starts at the distance. Performing well fresh presents no problem either, with four wins from nine starts either first or second-up. Here is another one to look for motoring home late.
Race 8 No. 5 Steel Zip
I love the weight turnaround against Lucky Luna – he meets the last start winner 4.5 kilos better off here for being beaten only a length last start. I love the form lines right through his preparation to date – Adebisi, Listen Son, My Destiny, Spirit Of Boom, Ready to Rip et al. I love the fact that in a race where the tempo looks likely to be only moderate, he can use a good draw in barrier six to race handy to the speed. And I love the fact that he might sneak out to what are often referred to as ‘good each-way odds’. Have I sold you on him yet?
Making The Nut is very pleased to have Luxbet on board as a sponsor of the site again in 2012.
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Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
