May 14 Racing Selections
The Queensland winter racing scene well and truly hits full tilt this weekend with the arrival of the champion sprinter Black Caviar to the Sunshine State. While I can’t really tip her to you at the $1.14 quote on offer, that won’t prevent an analysis of other Saturday May 14 races at Caulfield, Scone and Doomben.
Results for May 7 and 8
Invalid tips (due to scratchings and/ or track ratings that were outside the prescribed range)
Nil
Tips where the SP was $5.50 or less
Flemington – No Jurisdiction ($5.00 SP) – unplaced
May 7 and 8 Results: One selections, no winners
Overall Results: 45 selections, eleven winners, SP return of $41.80, profit on turnover (POT) = -7%
Tips where the SP was $6 or greater
Gold Coast – Rightfully Yours ($8.00 SP) – unplaced
Gold Coast – Scenic Shot ($8.00) – third
Morphetville – Majestic Music ($7.50) – second
Morphetville – Response ($12.00) – unplaced
May 7 and 8 Results: Four selection, no winners
Overall Results: 32 selections, five winners, SP return of $42.00, profit on turnover (POT) = 31%
All tips
Overall Results: 77 selections, 16 winners, SP return of $83.80, profit on turnover (POT) = 9%
Rules
(1) A ‘track rating range’ for which the tip will be considered valid will accompany selections.
(2) Results refer to a win-only bet at the bookmakers’ starting price (SP) divided into two groups– those where the SP is $5.50 or less (Group 1), and those where the SP is $6 or greater (Group 2).
Here are the selections for this Saturday:
Saturday May 14
Caulfield (tips based on a track rating range of dead 4 to slow 7)
Race 6 No. 4 Elumino
I really like this Peter Moody-trained mare when she’s fresh – she has an overall record of six wins and four placings from 15 starts, but this improves to five wins and a second from just seven starts when either first or second up from a spell. She is unbeaten in two attempts at the track and distance, and last preparation was in excellent form, capped by a win down the Flemington straight in a race where the very handy sprinter Grand Duels ran third. I thinks she’ll give a big sight.
Scone (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 7 No. 1 Palacio De Cristal
Finally, a (likely) dry track for her! Her recent form appears a little subpar on paper, but she simply does not handle rain-affected tracks well and really needs firm footing in order to show her best. At her best and with a solid tempo likely, the dual winner at Group level will simply be too good for these mares.
Race 8 No. 4 Tromso
Another horse who really needs the track to be no worse than dead – his overall record stands at four wins and six placings from 16 starts, but three of those runs have been well down the track on the heavy going. His last start was one of those occasions, finishing among the tailenders behind Atomic Force in Group 1 Galaxy Handicap in the heavy. At the start prior, he split Atomic Force and Dorf Command at Rosehill first up. He has also won up to 1500 metres, so 1300-metre trip should pose no problems. On a drier track and from a handy draw in barrier six, I expect the real Tromso to stand up.
Doomben (tips based on a track rating range of dead 4 to slow 7)
Race 2 No. 4 Deer Valley
Another mare who I like when fresh from a spell, and the strong expected speed will suit her down to ground. She has already posted two wins from three trips to Doomben (including a one-for-one record at track and distance), and her last win was in very strong company, defeating Burdekin Blues and Temple Of Boom. Going back to her three-year-old days, she also boasts a win over Melito – heady company indeed.
Race 5 No. 4 Femina Fashion
Forget she went around last start when carting the field along in the Group 2 Hollindale Stakes before puncturing in the straight – the severe drop in class will benefit her and the 7-day back-up can be taken as a sign of no adverse effects from last Saturday's run at the Gold Coast. She defeated Royal Reign at the start prior, with that mare winning her last start to frank the form line. She has a win and a second placing from two attempts at the distance, as well as a win and a second placing from two attempts at the trip.
Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
