May 26 Golf Tips
The cream of the golfing crop split over two continents this week – a perfect excuse to preview both the HP Byron Nelson Championship on the UPGA Tour and the BMW PGA Championship on the European Tour.
To recap, similar principles to those which apply for “Sting’s racing selections” will be in place here – bets will only be recommended for a top-5 finish in the tournament of that week where the price offered is $6 or better, with odds offered by Centrebet being used in the analysis.
Results for May 19 selections
Jason Day (Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial): T-31.
Year to date selection results:17 selections, one refund, no winning collects.
HP Byron Nelson Championship
The TPC Four Seasons Las Colinas plays host to the Byron Nelson Championship, and if the wind plays a significant factor (as it did last year), scoring will be extremely difficult. The Las Colinas course places a premium on finding the fairway and then finding the green, as it proved to be one of the more difficult courses on tour in 2010 in both respects. One thing to note however – accuracy off the tee can be traded against distance to some extent (leaving shorter approach shots from the rough), leaving greens in regulation and bogey avoidance as the two most pertinent statistics to check this week.
Unfortunately, the main candidates have come up short in the markets, with Dustin Johnson and Nick Watney heading the field at odds of $4.50 to finish in the top-5. KJ Choi ($5.00) is the best form of anyone on tour right now, but has six start at this event for zero top-25 finishes. Jason Day ($5.00) is the defending champion but comes here off a slightly disappointing performance at Colonial (lesson number 947 in why you should never break your gambling rules in order to force a bet). Matt Kuchar ($6.00) started the year in blistering form but has tapered off a little of late, missing the top-15 in each of his past four starts – he also has a less than flattering record at this event.
In the final analysis, I cannot recommend a bet here (cue the remaining three readers of this column breathing a sigh of relief that they get to hang onto their cash until next week).
BMW PGA Championship
The Wentworth Golf Club once again hosts the BMW PGA Championship. Many a golf fan may better remember Wentworth from its days as host of the World Golf Match Play Championship, an event that attracted a small but elite field from one year to the next. Unlike many British courses, Wentworth is more of a ‘park land’ course rather than a links course – the tree-lined fairways give it a feel more commonly attributed to courses on the US Tour. Nonetheless, the elements play a critical role. Benign weather will lead to low scores (such as in 2009, where Paul Casey posted 17-under en route to victory), while less favourable weather adds much to the degree of difficulty (Simon Khan returns as defending champion after a score of 6-under was sufficient in 2010).
A crack field has assembled for the 2011 version, but as the championship has historically been one that favoured strong ball-strikers, I am going to side with Charl Schwartzel. Currently second in the ‘Race To Dubai’ standings, the reigning US Masters champion has been in strong form since, recording an 11th place finish in the Malaysian Open, a tie for 26th at The Players Championship and a quarter final appearance last week at the Volvo Match Play Championship. His recent record at this event is also solid – a 17th place finish last year preceded by a tie for sixth in 2009. He is a long and relatively straight hitter and good with the flat stick in hand – an ideal recipe for Wentworth. At $6.00 to finish in the top-5 this week, he will be carrying both my cash and the current ‘kiss of death’ that seems to be associated with this column.
Thanks to Scott Halleran/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
