NFL Preview: NFC South

Filed in NFL by on September 8, 2011

Leading up to the NFL season kickoff, Nick Tedeschi and Cliff Bingham will break down each division and offer recommended bets with the last offering being a look at the playoff picture and overall Super Bowl wagers. It is a must for every fan.

PART 1: AFC EAST

PART 2: AFC WEST

PART 3: AFC NORTH

PART 4: AFC SOUTH

PART 5: NFC EAST

PART 6: NFC WEST

PART 7: NFC NORTH

PART 8: NFC SOUTH

Nick Tedeschi

The NFC South played some pretty strong football in 2010 with, of course, the exception of the 2-14 Carolina Panthers.

Let’s dispense with them now. They are terrible and not getting any better anytime soon. Cam Newton has bust written all over him and Ron Rivera is no John Fox. The running game will improve with the return of DeAngelo Williams to health but only Greg Olsen’s acquisition excites. They will improve but I would be surprised with any more than four wins.

The Atlanta Falcons won the division last year but I am forecasting a major downturn for them where they fall from 13 wins to nine. There are plenty of red flags with the Falcons this year: a +14 turnover ratio, a string of close wins, 1st in games lost by offensive players, 6th in games lost be defensive players, a disappointing playoff loss at home to Green Bay.

Matt Ryan is a nice quarterback. The addition of Julio Jones should take the heat off Roddy White. Ray Edwards and John Abraham look a mean one-two punch on the defensive line. The Falcons are a disciplined outfit who rarely give away penalties.

But the signs are there for a big downturn and they are a good bet to be low on this year.

I am also low on Tampa Bay, who I have winning 7-8 games. The Bucs have a lot of questionable characters on their team and overachieved last year despite some nasty injuries but last year appeared to good to be true. Josh Freeman has upside but he won’t have the same touchdown/interception ratio and I have no faith in their running game. I’ll be taking Tampa Bay on plenty this year.

I love the Saints to take the division and go all the way to their second Super Bowl in three years. For mine, they are clearly the best team in the NFC and possibly the NFL.

They are highly acclaimed for their offense and rightfully so. Drew Brees is one of the best quarterbacks in the game. He has a string of quality receivers who have only been added to this year with rookie tight end Jimmy Graham. The running game will be around this year after it was stymied by injury after injury. Darren Sproles is an upgrade on Reggie Bush while Mark Ingram has upside but Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory are the powerful runners who will ease the pressure on Brees, who should help improve the Saints’ turnover ratio.

It is the defence though where the Saints look dangerous. Gregg Williams loves the big blitz and it has been effective over the last two years as the Saints’ defence continues to improve. The acquisition of outstanding nose tackle Abruyao Franklin is a key pick up that should see New Orleans improve off the ball.

With my favourite coach in the NFL at the helm in Sean Payton, the Saints are going places this year.

Recommended Bets

·         3 units on New Orleans to win NFC South at $2.20 (IAS)

·         2.5 units on New Orleans Over 10.5 wins at $1.83 (Sportingbet)

·         2.5 units on Atlanta Under 10.5 wins at $1.67 (IAS)

Cliff Bingham

Last year they went a collective 7-9 against the AFC North, slaughtered the insipid NFC West 13-3 and went 4-4 against the rest of the NFC. Therefore despite having three teams post ten or more victories last year, they only tied for fourth in my divisional power rankings. This year they get the AFC South (predicting 9-7) and the NFC North (predicting 7-9), so without the NFC West helping to inflate their numbers, I say the NFC South will slide from 36 wins up to 32 this season. This overall dip is going to become important in a moment.

Here is the third (and final) piece of Bill Simmons-derived wisdom: Almost every season, a team who had a first round playoff bye the season before drops by at least four or five wins to miss the playoffs entirely. Minnesota dropped by six wins to do it last year; Tennessee by five wins and Carolina by four wins in 2009; Green Bay by seven wins in 2008; Baltimore by eight wins and Chicago by six wins in 2007, and so it goes. Much as with the ‘sleeper’ and the team who vaults into a first round playoff bye, this trend repeats itself, despite what Split Enz would have you believe…. no wonder the Finn Brothers disbanded Split Enz and formed Crowded House.

I never really contemplated the Patriots or Steelers for this role – the Belichick/ Brady and Tomlin/ Roethlisberger combinations are just too strong to take on. The Bears looked severely tempting for a while, but they would have to drop from 11-5 to maybe 6-10 despite receiving an easier schedule this season. It seems like a stretch.

So that leaves the Falcons. I’m predicting the NFC South will collectively drop by four wins this year, and Carolina are almost certainly going to move up by at least a win or two from their 2-14 mark of last season. So now we’re splitting perhaps a six-win reduction between three sides. I don’t see the Payton/ Brees combination in New Orleans taking a significant hit. The Buccaneers were too solid last year to drop to a 5-11 season or thereabouts.

Atlanta could definitely go 8-8 though. They won six of eight games where the margin was a touchdown or less. Against the NFC West and Carolina (twice) they went 6-0 with a points differential of plus 111 – against everyone else, 7-3 with a tellingly small points differential of just plus 15. They got smacked by Philadelphia in the regular season and Green Bay (at home, no less) in the playoffs, two of the best teams in the NFC last season. The NFC South hasn’t had a repeat divisional champion since the NFL expanded to eight divisions almost a decade ago. There are some definite ‘overachieved last year and now have the weight of unrealistically high expectations red flags’ in play here. I think they are this season’s fall guy.

This should leave New Orleans to (narrowly) assume the mantle of NFC South champions once again. While they’ve lost the occasionally dynamic Reggie Bush to Miami, it has become clear over the past couple of seasons that he is far from an every down style of back in any event. Moreover, with Pierre Thomas set to return from injury and both Chris Ivory and new signing Darren Sproles n supporting roles, the Saints’ ground game should be just fine. Ultimately though, this team revolves around head coach Sean Payton and quarterback Drew Brees. Since they arrived, the Saints have won 49 of 80 regular season games and not posted less than 379 points ‘for’ in any regular season. If their defensive unit remains solid, they’ll see playoff action.

Tampa Bay were to my mind the surprise packet of 2010, albeit that you could argue a case for Kansas City as well. In just their second season as a duo, head coach Raheem Morris and quarterback Josh Freeman lifted the team substantially, Freeman throwing for 25 TDs and only six interceptions. Had injuries not ravaged the latter part of their season (leading to a narrow win over Washington and a loss to Detroit), they may well have seen playoff action last year. This year I think they’ll sneak in.

Carolina will be marginally better in 2011 – a new coach in Ron Rivera and a new quarterback in Cam Newton should give the Panthers some renewed verve and enthusiasm. Nonetheless their roster remains quite thin on talent and thus four wins would be a reasonable outcome for a season where some growing pains are likely.

Predicted finish: New Orleans 10-6, Tampa Bay 10-6 (wild card), Atlanta 8-8, Carolina 4-12

Recommended Bets

·         1 unit on New Orleans to win the NFC South at $2.20

·         0.5 units on Tampa Bay to win the NFC South at $5.25

·         1 unit on Tampa Bay to win more than 8.5 games at $2.25

·         2 units on Atlanta to win less than 10.5 games at $1.73

$100 FREE BET!

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