November 12 Racing Selections
Tips for this weekend cover the November 12 meetings at Sandown Hillside (featuring the Group 2 Sandown Guineas and Zipping Classic). Before we get to that, an apology for some spotty record keeping over the Melbourne Cup carnival, where I spent too much time partying and not enough time making sure that the result added up correctly. They failed to do so for a couple of consecutive tips columns, but we are back on track now – a few consecutive days of sobriety will do that for you.
Results for November 5 meetings
Invalid tips (due to scratchings and/ or track ratings that were outside the prescribed range)
Nil
Tips where the SP was $5.50 or less
Nil
November 5 Results: No selections
Overall Results: 98 selections, 18 winners, SP return of $63.15, SP POT = -32%, Luxbet BOB return of $73.60, BOB POT = -21%
Tips where the SP was $6 or greater
Flemington – Shenzou Steeds ($6.50 SP) – unplaced
Flemington – Chartreux ($14.00) – unplaced
Flemington – Avienus ($9.00) – unplaced
November 5 Results: Three selections, no winners
Overall Results: 99 selections, ten winners, SP return of $79.50, SP POT = -20%, Luxbet BOB return of $92.00, BOB POT = -7%
All tips
Overall Results: 197 selections, 28 winners, SP return of $146.65, SP POT = -26%, Luxbet BOB return of $170.00, BOB POT = -14%
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Rules
(1) A ‘track rating range’ for which the tip will be considered valid will accompany selections.
(2) Results refer to a win-only bet at the bookmakers’ starting price (SP) or Luxbet’s ‘Best of Best’ (BOB) price divided into two groups– those where the SP is $5.50 or less (Group 1), and those where the SP is $6 or greater (Group 2).
Saturday November 12
Sandown Hillside (tips based on a track rating range of dead 4 to slow 7)
Race 4 No. 1 Doubtful Jack
With the WFA scale, the recent rains in Melbourne and the history of Heffernan Stakes winners racing on or very near the pace, this race breaks quite nicely for the Peter Moody galloper. His last start during the Melbourne Cup carnival was a complete ‘forgive’ run where the swoopers prevailed and prior to that he won the race for second behind Black Caviar in the Group 2 Schweppes Stakes. He has won his only previous start at the track and is a winner of nine out of 18 races or tracks rated dead or worse. From barrier one in a race bereft of strong speed I think he can jump, lead and win.
Race 8 No. 1 Ginga Dude
I’m always partial to catching the horses down in class late in the Spring carnival and here is a perfect example. This Kiwi gelding drops back from Group 1 company, having run sixth in the Mackinnon Stakes behind Glass Harmonium. Prior to that he ran fifth at Group 2 level in the Waterford Crystal Mile – the Group 3 class of this race should prove no problem for the former Coongy Handicap winner. He has carried big weights well in the past (including a win with 60 kilos at Moonee Valley four starts back), is a winner up to 2200 metres and has won eight of 23 starts on rain affected going. With he and Platinum Passion the only two likely leaders, I think he can prove too classy and too tough for them today.
Race 9 No. 5 Miss Bindi
After finally getting out to the more suitable 1400-metre trip last start I thought she ran on very nicely behind Sophie’s Spirit in the Group 3 Maybe Mahal Stakes. Importantly, she meets the winner of that race 3.5 kilos better off today and is very adept on wet tracks, winning three of her six starts to date on slow or heavy ground. Unlike a number of horses in this race she has won up to a mile and therefore should run out a strong 1500 metres. From barrier one, provided she can get clear running room in the straight, I think she can be too strong in the closing stages.
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Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
