November 26 Racing Selections
Tips for this weekend cover the November 26 meetings at Sandown Hillside, Eagle Farm and Morphettville Parks.
Results for November 19 meetings
Invalid tips (due to scratchings and/ or track ratings that were outside the prescribed range)
Nil
Tips where the SP was $5.50 or less
Ascot – He’s Remarkable ($5.50) – second
Ascot – Rarefied ($5.00) – second
Moonee Valley – Fabulist ($5.00 SP) – unplaced
Warwick Farm – Title ($5.00) – unplaced
November 19 Results: Four selections, no winners
Overall Results: 102 selections, 18 winners, SP return of $63.15, SP POT = -34%, Luxbet BOB return of $73.60, BOB POT = -24%
Tips where the SP was $6 or greater
Warwick Farm – Off And Laughing ($12.00 SP) – unplaced
Warwick Farm – Chateau Fort ($13.00) – unplaced
November 19 Results: Two selections, no winners
Overall Results: 104 selections, ten winners, SP return of $79.50, SP POT = -24%, Luxbet BOB return of $92.00, BOB POT = -12%
All tips
Overall Results: 206 selections, 28 winners, SP return of $146.65, SP POT = -29%, Luxbet BOB return of $170.00, BOB POT = -17%
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Rules
(1) A ‘track rating range’ for which the tip will be considered valid will accompany selections.
(2) Results refer to a win-only bet at the bookmakers’ starting price (SP) or Luxbet’s ‘Best of Best’ (BOB) price divided into two groups– those where the SP is $5.50 or less (Group 1), and those where the SP is $6 or greater (Group 2).
Saturday November 26
Sandown Hillside (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 4 No. 2 Musical Hit
He has really emerged as a good, honest stayer this campaign after a ten-month layoff, with a win at Flemington two starts ago followed by a sixth placing in the Listed Ballarat Cup. Dropping back to a BM95 race here whilst only going up by a kilo in the weights sees him to advantage. His only run over 2400 metres was a third placing at this track in heavy going last November, but with his last two runs being over 2000 and 2200 metres respectively I see no problems with him getting the extra trip.
Race 5 No. 5 Snitza
His two runs back this campaign (both over 1600 metres and carrying more weight than he will this time) have been very sound when you consider that he has only one placing from five starts first or second up, but four wins and two placings from 11 starts when further into a preparation. In his last campaign he won at distances up to 2400 metres so the 1800 of this event should prove no obstacle. The biggest selling point for me though was his win at Caulfield back in July, where he carried 57.5 kilos in an open three year-old race and won by almost four lengths. A repeat of that run would see him winning here.
Eagle Farm (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 2 No. 7 Steel Zip
With no shortage of speed engaged in this race I think that things bode well for the run-on types, and he is potentially the best of them. Don’t be alarmed by five straight unplaced runs before he went for a spell – all were Listed or Group races, whereas this is a BM90 race. He was beaten less than two lengths by Military Rose in the Group 3 Gold Coast Guineas and less than three lengths at both Group 3 and Listed level subsequent to that. Prior to stepping up in class his record stood at three wins and four placings from just eight starts, including a win at Eagle Farm and a second at his only 1000-metre attempt.
Race 7 No. 4 Listen Son
After a complete forgive run at Flemington on VRC Derby day he returns home to a much more suitable event. Last preparation he was terrific in better quality races without winning – including a second to Woorim in the Group 3 BTC Sprint, fourth to Varenna Miss in the Group 2 QTC Cup and sixth to Sincero in the Group 1 Stradbroke Handicap. He has two wins and two seconds from five starts at the distance, along with five wins and five seconds from 13 starts at the track. With barrier one and carrying only 55.5 kilos, I think he will take some holding out.
Race 8 No. 7 Skating On Ice
A mare with the potential to be quite a promising sprinter, she was never on the track when running fifth in her first run of the campaign but atoned with a last start win over this distance at Doomben. That took her record over the distance to four wins and three placings from eight starts (including a third to Military Rose in the Group 3 Gold Coast Guineas). She takes on the boys today but with only 54.5 kilos and drawn nicely for Glen Colless in barrier six, I think she’s up to the task.
Morphettville Parks (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 6 No. 7 Grand Ginger
Prior to his last start flop (where he went to Flemington on VRC Oaks day and was found well out of his depth) he won two on the trot in Adelaide, and thus returning home for a much more suitable race can see him bounce back to form. He has two wins from three starts at the distance (the only failure being a trip to Caulfield in April) and three starts ago won his only start to date at this venue over 1400 metres. The blinkers come off this time and I expect that will help him to settle in runing and find the line strongly.
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Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
