October 15 Racing Selections
Tips for this weekend cover the October 15 meetings at Caulfield (featuring the Group 1 Caulfield Cup and Randwick.
Results for October 8 meetings
Invalid tips (due to scratchings and/ or track ratings that were outside the prescribed range)
Nil
Tips where the SP was $5.50 or less
Caulfield – King’s Rose ($4.80 SP) – second
Rosehill – Shannara ($5.00) – unplaced
October 8 Results: Two selections, no winners
Overall Results: 89 selections, 17 winners, SP return of $63.15, SP POT = -29%, Luxbet BOB return of $73.60, BOB POT = -17%
Tips where the SP was $6 or greater
Caulfield – My Scotsgrey ($14.00 SP) – unplaced
Caulfield – Sincero ($6.00) – unplaced
Caulfield – Dubleanny ($10.00) – unplaced
October 8 Results: Three selections, no winners
Overall Results: 87 selections, nine winners, SP return of $72.50, SP POT = -17%, Luxbet BOB return of $84.50, BOB POT = -3%
All tips
Overall Results: 176 selections, 26 winners, SP return of $135.65, SP POT = -23%, Luxbet BOB return of $158.10, BOB POT = -10%
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Rules
(1) A ‘track rating range’ for which the tip will be considered valid will accompany selections.
(2) Results refer to a win-only bet at the bookmakers’ starting price (SP) or Luxbet’s ‘Best of Best’ (BOB) price divided into two groups– those where the SP is $5.50 or less (Group 1), and those where the SP is $6 or greater (Group 2).
Saturday October 15
Caulfield (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 6 No. 14 Varenna Miss
A winner of the Group 2 QTC Cup against the boys in Brisbane over the winter, she ran on quite nicely when finishing fifth first-up from a spell in the Group 2 Gilgai Stakes a fortnight ago. She possesses a strong record at Caulfield (two wins and a second from four starts) and has recorded a win and a second from two previous second-up runs. With barrier five and the minimum weight of 54.5 kilos, I think she can get a cosy run in behind the leaders and prove too strong in the final stages.
Race 8 No. 1 Mighty High
With the weights for this race raised by 2.5 kilos (in order to have a topweight of 57 kilos), essentially the scales have been compressed somewhat, with only 4.5 kilos separating the toppie from the minimum. With that in mind, I have settled on saddlecloth number one. If we’ve learnt anything over recent years, it’s that overseas raiders often derive significant benefit from the first run or two on Australian soil, thus I expect this Hong King-based galloper to be cheery ripe for this race. His first-up effort with 61.5 kilos was excellent and his run in the Group 1 Caulfield Stakes was better than it appeared, as he was shuffled back midway through a race dominated by on-pace runners. Three starts back he won a Group 1 over this distance in Hong Kong with Darren Beadman on board and I think he can repeat the dose here.
Randwick (tips based on a track rating range of dead 4 to slow 7)
Race 7 No. 1 Kanzan
This Peter Snowden-trained mare put in a better effort than it appeared when first-up in the Group 3 Golden Pendant, where she was trapped three and four wide for much of the journey before finishing seventh. She has an excellent second-up record of three wins and two placings from five starts. Last preparation, she was a winner at both Listed and Group 3 level, so her class is not in dispute. Barrier three will assist her, as will the SWP nature of this race, which sees her get in with 55.5 kilos, only 2.5 kilos above the lightest-weighted horses.
Race 8 No. 8 Metallurgical
This galloper certainly came on in leaps and bounds last preparation and I expect him to continue with that strong form first-up this time around. After defeating promising sprinters Mondean and Irish Dream in consecutive runs at Class 6 level, he was narrowly beaten three times at Listed and Group 3 level by Gundy Son, Pinwheel and Essington. From barrier three and carrying only the 53-kilo limit, he should be motoring home late in the race, aided by a likely hot tempo set by Zaratone, Phenomenal Lass and Winter King.
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Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
