October 20 Racing Selections

Tips for this Saturday cover the meetings at Caulfield (featuring the Group 1 Caulfield Cup) and Randwick. This will also be the last such column for at least a month (courtesy of an overseas trip) and potentially the finale for Sting’s Racing Selections more broadly. There comes a point where you have enough data/ evidence to suggest that certain tipping columns simply aren’t ever going to turn a long-run profit – I think we’re at that point with these tips.

Final report card for 2011 and revised rules for 2012 tips

Results for October 6 selections

Tips which were either scratched, outside the prescribed track conditions or too short in price

Scratched – nil

Track outside prescribed range – nil

Odds too short (less than $6 SP) – nil

Tips where the SP was in the $6-$9.50 range (1 unit bets)

Flemington – December Draw ($6.00 SP) – unplaced

Randwick – Shoot Out ($9.00) – unplaced

October 6 results:   2 selections, no winners, 1 third

2012 results:  70 selections, 70 units bet, 6 winners, 24 seconds/  thirds, SP return of 45.50 units (POT = -38%), BOB return of 48.90 units (POT = -33%)

Tips where the SP was in the $10+ range (0.5 unit bets)

Flemington – That’s The One ($10.00 SP) – unplaced

Randwick – Permit ($14.00) – unplaced

October 6 results:  2 selections, no winners

2012 results:  25 selections, 12.5 units bet, 2 winners, 2 thirds, SP return of 11.00 units (POT = -12%), BOB return of 11.95 units (POT = -4%)

Overall Results

October 6:  4 selections, 3 units bet, no winners, 1 third

2012:  98 selections, 85.5 units bet, 8 winners, 26 seconds/  thirds, SP return of 56.50 units (POT = -34%), BOB return of 60.85 units (POT = -29%)

 

Saturday October 20

Caulfield (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 7 No. 1 Prairie Star

• We’ve seen it with so many European stayers in the past 12 to 24 months – a stayer with solid form over there is exceptionally hard to beat here.
• His last three starts have included placings at both Group 2 and Group 3 level at Longchamp.
• His overall record stands at four wins and five placings from 12 starts, with two of his three unplaced runs coming at either Group 1 or Group 2 level.
• He has won from 1200 to 2200 metres and been placed up to 3100 metres, so the 2000-metre journey of this race poses no problem.
• While he has been weighted up to his best with 59 kilos, barrier four will enable him to have an easier run in transit.

Race 8 No. 10 My Quest For Peace

• He won his last two starts at Goodwood (in Group 3 and Listed company respectively) before coming here, the latter when carrying 62.5 kilos.
• Lightly raced to date, he has five wins and three placings from 11 starts, including three wins and a placing from seven starts over 2400 metres (as well as a fourth-placing at Group 1 WFA level four starts back). When you line up that form with the overseas record of favourite Glencadam Gold, it looks rather impressive.
• He has five wins and a third from seven starts on tracks rated as good.
• With barrier two and only 53.5 kilos, he looks the best-placed of the overseas raiders to carry on the recent tradition of lightly-weighted types taking home the big staying prizes.

Race 10 No. 3 Mrs Onassis

• She has come back in great order this preparation with a Listed win first-up, a second to Tiger Tees at Group 3 level second-up and a third at Group 3 level over 1200 metres last start.
• The drop back to 1100 metres is in her favour – she has five wins and two placings from nine starts at the trip, compared to one win and one placing from six starts at all other distances.
• From barrier two, she should be able to roll forward (potentially to the lead) and be very hard to catch.

 

Randwick (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 7 No. 12 Dances On Stars

• I like three-year-olds with Group form and some upside in races such as this, where the form lines of other horses are well exposed and where they’ve probably reached their ‘plateau point’.
• This colt won at Group 3 level (defeating Agueda and Ichihara) when last resuming, before placing twice at Group 2 level during the Brisbane winter carnival behind Sizzling.
• His best form to date has come over 1100 metres (a win, a second and a fourth from three starts) and he won a trial at Rosehill two weeks ago in preparation for this.

 

Making The Nut is very pleased to have Luxbet on board as a sponsor of the site again in 2012.

Luxbet offer a wide variety of bet types when it comes to thoroughbred racing. In particular, for something as simple as a win-only bet on any given race, there are a number of different odds options that can be taken. For reasons I’ve previously articulated in some detail, their ‘Best of Best’ odds option is my personal favourite. You can certainly do a lot better than the SP when you’re betting with Luxbet.

Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo