October 29 Racing Selections

Tips for this weekend cover the October 29 meetings at Flemington (featuring the Group 1 Victoria Derby and Group 1 Mackinnon Stakes) and Rosehill. Can the 19-race losing streak of recommended bets (i.e. those at an SP of $6 or greater) be broken this week? Only time will tell.

 

Results for October 22 meetings

Invalid tips (due to scratchings and/ or track ratings that were outside the prescribed range)

Nil

Tips where the SP was $5.50 or less

Moonee Valley – Lady Lynette ($5.00 SP) – third

Eagle Farm – Celtic Dancer ($4.80) – unplaced

October 22 Results: Two selections, no winners

Overall Results: 93 selections, 17 winners, SP return of $63.15, SP POT = -32%, Luxbet BOB return of $73.60, BOB POT = -21%

Tips where the SP was $6 or greater

Caulfield – Varenna Miss ($6.50 SP) – unplaced

Caulfield – Mighty High ($8.00) – unplaced

October 22 Results: Two selections, no winners

Overall Results: 89 selections, nine winners, SP return of $72.50, SP POT = -19%, Luxbet BOB return of $84.50, BOB POT = -5%

All tips

Overall Results: 180 selections, 26 winners, SP return of $135.65, SP POT = -25%, Luxbet BOB return of $158.10, BOB POT = -12%

 

 

Rules

(1) A ‘track rating range’ for which the tip will be considered valid will accompany selections.

(2) Results refer to a win-only bet at the bookmakers’ starting price (SP) or Luxbet’s ‘Best of Best’ (BOB) price divided into two groups– those where the SP is $5.50 or less (Group 1), and those where the SP is $6 or greater (Group 2).

 

Saturday October 29

Flemington (tips based on a track rating range of dead 4 to slow 7)

Race 5 No. 8 Glass Harmonium

A complete forgive run in the Cox Plate where he played up in the barriers (after having to wait in them without his blindfold when Jimmy Choux broke through the gates), bombed the start and that was that. Prior to that his form was excellent, culminating in a close second to December Draw in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes. In a race where he and Ginga Dude look the main speed, I think he can get an easy run in transit and atone for last week.

 

Race 8 No. 6 Sister Madly 

There's a temptation to work around the obvious here and look for better odds elsewhere in the field, but the cold hard reality is this: Curtana was easily beaten by Temple Of Boom in the Group 2 Gilgai Stakes and then ran alongside Mid Summer Music at Caulfield behind Sepoy when receiving weight from the three year-old. Meanwhile, Sistine Angel (only beaten 1.5 lengths by Temple Of Boom in the Gilgai) was then beaten 4 lengths by More Joyous and Sister Madly in the Group 2 Tristarc Stakes, putting Sister Madly at the top of the pile for me. Oh, and at her previous start she ran second to Sepoy when giving him 4.5 kilos. On weights and measures I simply can't find a way past her.

 

Race 9 No. 11 Launay 

This race has a few near the top of the weights who have drawn poorly and thus will almost certainly have to go back, so I'm leaning towards the better drawn, lighter weighted 'go forward' types. Launay ran a solid sixth when resuming the Group 3 Moonga Stakes behind Love Conquers All and when removing his first-up runs, his career record stands at five wins and thre placings from only 11 runs. He is unbeaten at Flemington, including two wins at the track and distance. Last preparation he ran an unlucky second to Testa My Patience (a Group winner at Moonee Valley last week) when giving that galloper 4.5 kilos, so class wise he is up to this level. I think he'll race handy to the speed and prove very hard to hold out.

 

Rosehill (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 5 No. 4 Tromso

A lot to like here. I like his first-up record of two wins and two seconds from five starts. I like his Rosehill record of three wins and three seconds from nine starts. I really like that he meets Atomic Force 10.5 kilos better for running second to him in the Listed Maurice McCarten Stakes in March in his previous first-up run. I like him drawing a good barrier (barrier one). If you can get $6 (a big if at the moment), I really like him as a bet here.

 

Race 6 No. 7 Gopana

A mare who often takes a couple of runs to hit full fitness and form, her last start fourth in the Listed Belle Of The Turf bheind Skyerush was most encouraging. She has three wins and three seconds from 13 career runs and with 54.5 kilso and barrier six is well in for a BM80 race. But to my mind the killer point is this: in two runs over this journey she has a win over The Verminator at Rosehil and a second to the same horse at Randwick. The Verminator won the Group 1 Metropolitan last start and is running in the Mackinnon today before potentially heading to the Melbourne Cup on Tuesday. It's not a bad form line for a BM80 race is it? I think it will be the critical factor.

 

Just a reminder that Making The Nut is very pleased to have had Luxbet recently come on board as a sponsor of the site.

Luxbet is offering a free $100 bet (literally a bet to nothing) if you sign up to their website either via the banner below or text links above. Just sign up and win (or not lose, as the case may be) on your free bet! Such patronage will also help this site to grow in stature over time.

Luxbet offer a wide variety of bet types when it comes to thoroughbred racing. In particular, for something as simple as a win-only bet on any given race, there are a number of different odds options that can be taken. For reasons I’ve previously articulated in some detail, their ‘Best of Best’ odds option is my personal favourite. You can certainly do a lot better than the SP when you’re betting with Luxbet.

 

Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo