Racing’s Kiss of Death – April 12

Filed in Horse Racing, The Sting's Racing Selections by on April 11, 2013

This week’s selections cover the April 13 meetings at Flemington, Radnwick (featuring threeGroup 1 races – the Sires Produce Stakes, the Australian Derby and the TJ Smith Stakes, featuring Black Caviar) and Morphettville.

Results for April 6 selections

Tips which were either scratched, outside the prescribed track conditions or too short in price

Scratched – nil

Track outside prescribed range – nil

Odds too short (less than $6 SP) – Secret Liaison

Tips where the SP was in the $6-$9.50 range (1 unit bets)

Rosehill – Lunayir ($6.50 SP) – unplaced

Doomben – War Ends ($7.00) – second

April 6 results:   2 selections, 2 units bet, no winners, 1 placing

2013 results:  18 selections, 18 units bet, 3 winners, 7 placings, SP return of 21.00 units (17% PoT), BOB return of 25.00 units (39% PoT)

2011-2013 results: 155 selections, 153 units bet, 18 winners, 47 placings, SP return of 135.00 units (-13% PoT), BOB return of 151.90 units (-2% PoT)

Tips where the SP was in the $10+ range (0.5 unit bets)

Moonee Valley– Speediness ($12.00 SP) – unplaced

Rosehill – Say No More ($11.00) – unplaced

April 6 results:   2 selections, 1 unit bet, no winners, no placings

2013 results: 12 selections, 6 units bet, 3 winners (1 dead heat), no placings, SP return of 16.00 units (167% PoT), BOB return of 18.70 units (212% PoT)

2011-2013 results: 81 selections, 40.5 units bet, 7 winners, 8 placings, SP return of 51.00 units (26% PoT), BOB return of 59.05 units (46% PoT)

Overall Results

April 6:  4 selections, 3 units bet, no winners, 1 placing

2013:  30 selections, 24 units bet, 6 winners (1 dead heat), 7 placings, SP return of 37.00 units (54% PoT), BOB return of 43.70 units (82% PoT)

2011-2013: 236 selections, 195.5 units bet, 25 winners, 55 placings, SP return of 186.00 units (-5% PoT), BOB return of 210.95 units (8% PoT)

Saturday April 13

Flemington (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 5 No. 5 Bonaria

  • Her last two races have also been her first two attempts over 1600 metres, resulting in a Group 3 win over Spirit Song at this track, before an unlucky fourth behind the same galloper (with multiple Group winner Lights Of Heaven finishing second) at Group 2 level at Moonee Valley.
  • She is a horse who improves after a couple of runs back – one win and two placings from eight starts when first or second-up, three wins and five placings from 13 runs thereafter.
  • The speed in this race should be quite solid, suiting her ‘get back, run on’ style.

Race 6 No. 9 Goldoni

  • The two runs of this Irish import in Australia have been very solid and he now gets out to a distance range over which he had success in the UK.
  • His record in the 2000-2500 metre range includes two wins (one at Listed level) and a couple of Listed placings, so to get into a race such as this with only half a kilo over the limit is a generous handicapping assessment.
  • From barrrier six, he should have a comfortable run in transit and be ready to challenge in the home straight.

Randwick (tips based on a track rating range of dead 4 to slow 7)

Race 6 No. 4 Havana Rey

  • Proved last start that he’s not just a Warwick Farm specialist by winning a Group 2 at Rosehill over a number of competitors in this field.
  • Loves the 1600-metre journey, with five wins and a second from eight starts.
  • Has a poor fresh record but really comes into his own after a few runs – he has seven wins and two placings from 13 starts when third-up or further into a preparation.
  • Has drawn badly in barrier 16, but the 1600-metre starting point at Randwick offers plenty of time to cross (and most likely lead) before the first corner.

Race 8 No. 9 Detours

  • She has an outstanding fresh record, with three wins and a second from four first-up runs, including a Group 3 win by two lengths over the likes of Soft Sand when resuming last time at Caulfield.
  • She also loves the 1200-metre journey – four wins from six starts, compared to no wins and four placings from seven starts at all other distances.
  • Her only previous run at Randwick resulted in a fifth placing, but it was at the end of her preparation and over an unsuitable long 1400-metre journey.
  • Barrier 13 appears awkward, but the speed should be strong and allow her to slide across and get some cover worse than midfield before unleashing a powerful late sprint.

Morphettville (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 7 No. 11 Platelet

  • Her overall record is excellent – five wins and nine placings from 16 starts, including five wins and six placings from 13 starts when second-up or further into a preparation.
  • Last preparation, she won at Listed WFA level, easily defeating Zamorar.  Zamorar was narrowly beaten by Riziz in his start prior to that. That form line can be extended through Avoid Lightning (who Riziz beat last start) and Loveyamadly (who narrowly beat Avoid Lightning two starts back when in receipt of 3.5 kilos).
  • Later in the same preparation, she ran second (beaten only half a length) by Bel Sprinter at Group 3 WFA level, then ran fifth (beaten only 1.5 lengths) by Buffering at Group 2 WFA level. Those are outstanding form lines for a race such as this.
  • From barrier four, she should be well placed to stalk the early speed and obtain a clear run in the home straight.

 

Thanks to Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo

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