Racing’s Kiss of Death – April 6

Filed in Horse Racing, The Sting's Racing Selections by on April 4, 2013

This week’s selections cover the April 6 meetings at Moonee Valley, Rosehill (featuring four Group 1 races – the Golden Slipper, the BMW, the Queen of the Turf and the George Ryder Stakes) and Doomben.

Results for March 30 selections

Tips which were either scratched, outside the prescribed track conditions or too short in price

Scratched – nil

Track outside prescribed range – nil

Odds too short (less than $6 SP) – African Pulse, Under The Eiffel

Tips where the SP was in the $6-$9.50 range (1 unit bets)

Caulfield – Folding Gear ($6.00 SP) – second

Rosehill – Permit ($6.50) – second

Rosehill – Epingle ($8.50) – second

Rosehill – Lightinthenite ($9.00) – unplaced

March 30 results:   4 selections, 4 units bet, no winners, 3 placings

2013 results:  16 selections, 16 units bet, 3 winners, 6 placings, SP return of 21.00 units (31% PoT), BOB return of 25.00 units (56% PoT)

2011-2013 results: 153 selections, 153 units bet, 18 winners, 46 placings, SP return of 135.00 units (-12% PoT), BOB return of 151.90 units (-1% PoT)

Tips where the SP was in the $10+ range (0.5 unit bets)

Nil

March 30 results:  No selections

2013 results: 10 selections, 5 units bet, 3 winners (1 dead heat), no placings, SP return of 16.00 units (220% PoT), BOB return of 18.70 units (274% PoT)

2011-2013 results: 79 selections, 39.5 units bet, 7 winners, 8 placings, SP return of 51.00 units (29% PoT), BOB return of 59.05 units (49% PoT)

Overall Results

March 30:  4 selections, 4 units bet, no winners, 3 placings

2013:  26 selections, 21 units bet, 6 winners (1 dead heat), 6 placings, SP return of 37.00 units (76% PoT), BOB return of 43.70 units (108% PoT)

2011-2013: 232 selections, 192.5 units bet, 25 winners, 54 placings, SP return of 186.00 units (-3% PoT), BOB return of 210.95 units (10% PoT)

 

Saturday April 6

Moonee Valley (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 7 No. 4 Secret Liaison

  • She is in excellent form for a race such as this. A Listed winner against the boys four starts back, she then beat the boys at RB95 level off an eight-week freshen, then ran second in a strong mares race and most recently sixth at Group 2 level.
  • While her history at Moonee Valley is limited, her excellent record on dead tracks (five wins and three seconds from 12 starts) suggests that the bit of cushion in the StrathAyr surface will suit.
  • The biggest selling point for mine though is that she drops back from Group 2 level, while Muhaajir (the likely favourite) is coming from an RB78 race. Even after she has to concede him three kilos at the weights, I think the extra class will prevail.

Race 8 No. 5 Speediness

  • He has spent much of his recent racing career running reasonable (albeit unplaced) races at Group and subsequently Listed level, and he finally drops back to a more suitable event.
  • He has two wins and a placing from six starts at 1200 metres, and is also strong on soft tracks (three wins and two placings from seven starts), so Moonee Valley should suit.
  • The speed in this race looks very strong on paper, so he should be able to slot across from barrier 12 towards the tail of the field and not be hemmed in when trying to make a late charge at the leaders.

Rosehill (tips based on a track rating range of dead 4 to slow 7)

Race 1 No. 5 Lunyair

  • His last two efforts have been very good, winning at Warwick Farm and then running second to Julienas (who then backed up the following week and won again).
  • He now has two wins and two Listed placings (plus a fourth at Listed level in France) from seven starst when second-up or further into a preparation.
  • He has a win and two placings from four starts at the trip.
  • Most importantly, he gets four kilos off the favourite Lights Of Heaevn (or a six kilo swing from the weights they would carry in a WFA event).

Race 9 No. 14 Say No More

  • She is a dual Group 1 winner in New Zealand over the course of her last four starts.
  • Her first fresh run in Australia was in Brisbane last September, where she laboured under the 61-kilo impost. With only 54 kilos here, that will not be a problem.
  • She has six wins and three seconds from 12 career starts, including a win and a second over this trip and a previous fresh win.
  • From a good barrier and with a likely strong speed, she’ll get her chance to finish over the top of them.

Doomben (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 7 No. 2 War Ends

  • His last start win (over the potential favourite here in Skating On Ice) highlight that he is a much better galloper with some racing under his belt – he has only one win and two placings from 12 runs when first or second-up, but six wins and six placings from 22 runs thereafter.
  • He loves Doomben – two wins and a placing from three previous starts, including a win and a placing from two attempts at the track/ trip.
  • He is well in drawn in gate four to go forward (and perhaps even lead again) in a race with little by way of early speed.

 

Thanks to Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo

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