Racing’s Kiss of Death – December 14

This week’s selections cover the December 14 meetings at Flemington and Randwick.

Results for December 7 selections

Tips which were either scratched, outside the prescribed track conditions or too short in price

Scratched – nil

Track outside prescribed range – nil

Odds too short (less than $6 SP) – nil

Tips where the SP was in the $6-$9.50 range (1 unit bets)

Caulfield – Miss Middleton ($6.00 SP) – third

Caulfield – Solsay ($7.00) – second

December 7 results:  2 selections, 2 units bet, no winners, 2 placings

2013 results:  80 selections, 80 units bet, 14 winners, 22 placings, SP return of 107.00 units (34% PoT), BOB return of 117.80 units (47% PoT)

2011-2013 results:  217 selections, 217 units bet, 29 winners, 62 placings, SP return of 221.00 units (2% PoT), BOB return of 244.70 units (13% PoT)

Tips where the SP was in the $10+ range (0.5 unit bets)

Nil

December 7 results:  no selections

2013 results:  46 selections, 23 units bet, 5 winners (1 dead heat), 4 placings, SP return of 30.00 units (30% PoT), BOB return of 34.15 units (48% PoT)

2011-2013 results:  115 selections, 57.5 units bet, 9 winners, 12 placings, SP return of 52.00 units (-10% PoT), BOB return of 60.30 units (5% PoT)

Overall Results

December 7 results:  2 selections, 2 units bet, no winners, 2 placings

2013:  126 selections, 103 units bet, 19 winners (1 dead heat), 26 placings, SP return of 137.00 units (33% PoT), BOB return of 151.95 units (48% PoT)

2011-2013: 332 selections, 274.5 units bet, 38 winners, 74 placings, SP return of 273.00 units (-1% PoT), BOB return of 305.00 units (11% PoT)

Saturday December 14

Flemington (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 4 No. 1 Outlandish Lad

Excellent two starts ago at this track/ trip when 4^thto Smokin’ Joey (when then ran 2^ndin a Group 1) at Group 3 level, solid third to Lord Wimble (the quinella there have run 1-2 again since) last start over a mile but prefer him back to the 1400m here, gets in only 3 kilos over the limit after the claim.

Race 7 No. 1 Whisper Downs

Forgive last start flop on a heavy track in Ballarat Cup (his record on slow or heavy tracks is terrible), 14 starts for 5-2-3 over the 2000 metres including 3 starts for 2-1-0 at the track/ trip, his run in the Kyneton Cup 2 starts back suggests he’s up to full fitness this prep, meets Constant Force 5 kilos better from that race, only 3 kilos over the limit against a lot of horses who have been running in restricted grade.

Randwick (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 6 No. 14 Absalon

Fun facts about the Villiers Stakes: 7 of last 9 winners have won their previous start (he’s the only last-start winner in the 2013 field), six of last 8 winners have started double figure odds (he’s around the $21 mark). Started his career with 2 wins from 17 races but since then has won 3 out of 4, including both goes at this trip and a last start win at Listed level in Brisbane.

 

Thanks to Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo