Racing’s Kiss Of Death – February 9

Filed in Horse Racing, The Sting's Racing Selections by on February 7, 2013

This week’s selections cover the February 9 meetings at Caulfield and Warwick Farm.

Results for February 2 selections

Tips which were either scratched, outside the prescribed track conditions or too short in price

Scratched – nil

Track outside prescribed range – I’m Cool

Odds too short (less than $6 SP) – The New Boy, White Universe

Tips where the SP was in the $6-$9.50 range (1 unit bets)

Morphettville – My Ex Mate ($6.00 SP) – third

February 2 results:   1 selection, 1 unit bet, no winners, 1 placing

2013 results:  3 selections, 3 units bet, no winners, 1 placing, SP return of 0.00 units, BOB return of 0.00 units

Tips where the SP was in the $10+ range (0.5 unit bets)

Nil

February 2 results:  no selections, no winners, no placings

2013 results:  4 selections, 2 units bet, 1 winner, no placings, SP return of $7.50, BOB return of $8.40

Overall Results

February 2:  1 selection, 1 unit bet, no winners, no placings

2013:  7 selections, 5 units bet, 1 winner, 1 placing, SP return of $7.50, BOB return of $8.40

 

Saturday February 9

Caulfield (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 1 No. 1 Whisper Downs

  • His last three starts (all at Caulfield) have been excellent, resulting in two wins and a last-start third behind Keep Cool (who has recent form through Tuscan Fire).
  • He has three wins and a placing from six starts overall at Caulfield, including two wins and a placing from four starts at the track/ distance.
  • He needs a stronger pace than was the case last time (where they dawdled around in 2:05.69 for the 2000 metres, compared to 2:02.83 at the previous start where he won). If he gets the quicker tempo, he can win again.

Race 8 No. 4 Good Ba Ba

  • At his best, he was one of the world’s best milers, and his two runs in Australia thus far (over an unsuitably short journeys of 1200 and 1000 metres respectively, finishing fourth on each occasion) have been terrific.
  • He has 11 wins and five placings from 28 starts over 1600 metres, compared to five wins and four placings from 20 starts at all other distances.
  • Go back five starts (albeit also more than two years) and was beaten only 2.3 lengths in a Group 1 over this distance in Hong Kong, suggesting that his 56-kilo impost here is far from punitive.

Race 9 No. 2 Bonnie Mac

  • She drops back from a Group 2 WFA race against the boys (where she just missed the placings) into a Group 3 Mares’ race where she is only two kilos above the limit weight.
  • She has five wins from 10 career starts. The five unplaced runs are comprised of: (1) her debut run; (2) two Group races over 1400 metres during the Brisbane carnival; and (3) her last two runs in Group company against the boys.
  • Her last run against mares over 1200 metres was five starts ago, where she comfortably won a Listed SWP race at Morphettville last May.
  • From barrier three she should be able to settle anywhere in running and prove hard to hold out.

Warwick Farm (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 6 No. 4 Centennial Park

  • This galloper has well defined tendencies that lend themselves to betting on him in this race and then leaving him out for the rest of his preparation.
  • He has three wins and four seconds from 10 starts when first-up, compared to four wins and five placings from 33 starts thereafter.
  • He has three wins and three seconds from eight starts over 1200 metres, compared to four wins and six placings from 35 starts over all other distances.
  • While his overall Warwick Farm record is poor, his only start over 1200 metres here was first-up last preparation in the Group 3 WFA Missile Stakes, where he ran second to Pinwheel in 1:09.74. Compare this to the favourite Happy Galaxy, whose career-best time over the distance is 1:10.11.

Race 7 No. 5 Punch Your Weight

  • This race contains a lot of gallopers who have already found their correct level, so I’m speculating on one who may yet have plenty of upside.
  • His only two career runs to date were in Ireland back in August 2012, with both resulting in sold victories. These wins were in respectable races too, as evidenced by his $79,000 in prizemoney earned and his 56-kilo weighting (two kilos above the limit) for this race.
  • He trialled at Randwick last week and after settling at the rear of the field, worked home reasonably well over the concluding stages.

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Thanks to Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo

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