Racing’s Kiss of Death – January 12

Filed in Horse Racing, The Sting's Racing Selections by on January 10, 2013

As Snow Cover saluted the judge first late last Saturday afternoon, a thought occurred: I really should have put the old reverse jinx on this column back in 2011 – my wallet would certainly have appreciated it. Still, it’s better late than never I suppose. With that in mind, the kisses of death for this weekend cover the January 12 meetings at Flemington and the Gold Coast (Magic Millions day).

Results for January 5 selections

Tips which were either scratched, outside the prescribed track conditions or too short in price

Scratched – nil

Track outside prescribed range – nil

Odds too short (less than $6 SP) – Hypurr

Tips where the SP was in the $6-$9.50 range (1 unit bets)

Caulfield – Follonica ($7.50 SP) – unplaced

January 5 results:   1 selection, no winners

2013 results:  1 selection, 1 unit bet, no winners, no placings, SP return of 0.00 units, BOB return of 0.00 units

Tips where the SP was in the $10+ range (0.5 unit bets)

Caulfield – Snow Cover ($15.00 SP, $16.80 BOB) – Won

January 5 results:  1 selection, 0.5 units bet, 1 winner, SP return of $7.50, BOB return of $8.40

2013 results:  1 selection, 0.5 units bet, 1 winner, no placings, SP return of $7.50, BOB return of $8.40

Overall Results

January 5:  2 selections, 1.5 units bet, 1 winner, no placings, SP return of $7.50, BOB return of $8.40

2013:  2 selection, 1.5 units bet, 1 winner, no placings, SP return of $7.50, BOB return of $8.40

 

Saturday January 12

Flemington (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 5 No. 2 Over Quota

  • Forgive his last start at Flemington when he was three-wide facing the breeze for much of the race. His run prior to that (finishing just two lengths behind Future Solution when spotting that galloper six kilos) indicate that he’s fit enough to win.
  • His 1600-metre record is excellent – seven wins and five placings from 20 starts, compared to two wins and 10 placings from 29 starts at all other distances. He also has one win from two starts over the Flemington mile.
  • Four runs back, he carried 59.5 kilos over this trip when a close second to the promising Callanish in the Listed Seymour Cup.
  • After the claim he gets in with 58 kilos (his lightest weight in six runs this campaign) and from barrier four should get an easier run in transit.

Race 6 No. 6 By The Way

  • His get back, run-on style is much better suited to Flemington than it is to Caulfield, where he motored home late in his previous run when fifth (beaten only 1.8 lengths by Undeniably) in the Listed Christmas Stakes.
  • That was his first run in almost two months – while technically it was not a long enough break to define his as first-up in that run and second-up here, it is worth noting that his true second-up record is four wins and a second from just seven races.
  • His record over the 1400 metres at Flemington is very good – a win and two seconds from four starts, including a second to Fawkner during the Spring Carnival.

 

Gold Coast (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 3 No. 1 Capital Commander

  • In a race where a number of the more-fancied runners are coming out of very restricted grade, I’m going for one of the only two horses in the field who has not been given the limit weight.
  • Her last three runs have all been very good, including a narrow second placing in the Listed Nivison Handicap in the spring and a last-start second to Samui Lad when taking on the boys at Rosehill off a four-week break.
  • Her only previous start at the Gold Coast was at this meeting last year, where she was a convincing winner.

Race 7 No. 3 Startsmeup

  • After winning at Group 3 level when resuming from a spell, his last two efforts have been undone by a lack of speed up front – with Thefifthhole engaged here, that should not be a problem this time around.
  • He meets Biggles 2.5 kilos better off for having been beaten 1.8 lengths by that galloper last start in the Listed Goldmarket Handicap.
  • While he is yet to win a race at the Gold Coast, he has a pair of second placings (including one in this race last year) from as many starts over the track and trip.

Making The Nut is very pleased to have Luxbet on board as a sponsor of the site again in 2013.

Luxbet offer a wide variety of bet types when it comes to thoroughbred racing. In particular, for something as simple as a win-only bet on any given race, there are a number of different odds options that can be taken. For reasons I’ve previously articulated in some detail, their ‘Best of Best’ odds option is my personal favourite. You can certainly do a lot better than the SP when you’re betting with Luxbet.

Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo

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