Racing’s Kiss of Death – March 15 and 16

Filed in Horse Racing, The Sting's Racing Selections by on March 14, 2013

This week’s selections cover the March 15 meeting at Moonee Valley, as well as the March 16 meetings at Bendigo and Warwick Farm (featuring the Group 1 Randwick Guineas).

Results for March 9 selections

Tips which were either scratched, outside the prescribed track conditions or too short in price

Scratched – Toffler, Laser Hawk

Track outside prescribed range – Didntcostalot

Odds too short (less than $6 SP) – Spirit Song

Tips where the SP was in the $6-$9.50 range (1 unit bets)

Flemington – Mawingo ($7.50 SP) – unplaced

March 9 results:   1 selection, 1 unit bet, no winners, no placings

2013 results:  9 selections, 9 units bet, 1 winner, 3 placings, SP return of 9.00 units, BOB return of 9.00 units

Tips where the SP was in the $10+ range (0.5 unit bets)

Flemington – Budriguez ($12.00 SP, $13.20 BOB) – Won (dead heat – half dividend paid)

March 9 results:  1 selection, 0.5 units bet, 1 winner (dead heat), no placings, SP return of 3.00 units, BOB return of 3.30 units

2013 results: 9 selections, 4.5 units bet, 2 winners (1 dead heat), no placings, SP return of 10.50 units, BOB return of 11.70 units.

Overall Results

March 9:  2 selections, 1.5 units bet, 1 winner (dead heat), no placings, SP return of 3.00 units, BOB return of 3.30 units

2013:  18 selections, 13.5 units bet, 3 winners (1 dead heat), 3 placings, SP return of 19.50 units, BOB return of 20.70 units.

 

Friday March 15

Moonee Valley (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 7 No. 3 Freereturn

  • He put in a reasonable run when first-up in the Group 1 Oakleigh Plate (beaten 4.1 lengths, compared to a 3.8 length defeat in the Group 2 Caulfield Sprint over the same track and trip late last year).
  • He drops in class here and more importantly, returns to his favourite track, where he has four wins and a placing from five starts, including two wins and a placing from three starts over 1200 metres.
  • From barrier two he can stalk the speed (likely to be set by Loveyamadly and Zedi Knight) and have every chance in the home straight.

Saturday March 16

Bendigo (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 2 No. 1 Unchain My Heart

  • She has to lump a big weight (58 kilos) against the boys here, but the substantial drop in class from her last run should more than offset this.
  • Her last start effort to run fourth (behind Kutchinsky, Tuscan Fire and Dame Claire) in the Listed Roy Higgins Quality was excellent. Kutchinksy and Dame Claire both finished in the first four in the Adelaide Cup on Monday, so the form line is excellent.
  • While she has yet to win over 2400 metres, she has won at distances of up to 3000 metres, so the trip represents no problem.

Race 4 No. 4 Livigno

  • His record when fresh is very good – two wins and two placings from four races when either first or second-up.
  • Last preparation he ran second (beaten only 0.2 lengths) by subsequent Group 2 winner Sea Lord, then was seventh of 19 runners (beaten 3.5 lengths) in the Group 3 Bobby Lewis Quality. For an RB82 race, that is outstanding form!
  • Remove his two unplaced starts over an unsuitably long 1400 metres and his career stats read as five races for two wins, two placings and the aforementioned seventh at Group 3 level.  

Race 6 No. 3 Chateau Margaux

  • Her first ever preparation resulted in two runs for two fourth placings. However, since that time she raced on nine occasions for five wins and three placings.
  • Last preparation she resumed with a second placing on a heavy track before posting two wins as well as two placings at Group level.
  • Her record of a win and a second from four starts over 1400 metres is sound, and is even better when you remove her first ever campaign.

Race 7 No. 3 Jet Away

  • Last preparation in the UK, he won a Listed race when second-up, defeating Fiorente (at level weights), who subsequently won a Group 2 race and then ran second in the Melbourne Cup when carrying 53.5 kilos. In light of this, the 54.5 kilos allocated to Jet Away here seems like a luxury.
  • He was originally slated to run last week in the Group 2 Blamey Stakes, where he would have met Wall Street at level weights under the SWP nature of that race. Instead, they meet here with Wall Street having to give him 5.5 kilos.
  • While his shortest winning distance to date is 1800 metres, he does have an excellent fresh record (five wins and two seconds from eight starts when either first or second-up).

Warwick Farm (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 8 No. 6 Thy

  • She ran home reasonably well when resuming in the Group 3 Tressady Stakes at Flemington, finishing fifth (beaten only 1.4 lengths) in a race dominated by the on-pace runners.
  • She is certainly better suited over the 1600 metres, a trip over which she has a win and a second from two previous attempts.
  • She has had two previous runs the Sydney way of going, for a fourth to Mosheen and a third to Streama, both at Group 1 level. For a Listed mares race, these are very strong form lines.

Thanks to Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo

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