Racing’s Kiss of Death – May 11
This week’s selections cover the May 11 meetings at Caulfield, Rosehill, Eagle Farm (featuring the Group 1 BTC Cup) and Morphettville (featuring the Group 1 Goodwood Handicap). Much as with last week’s column (and quite possibly next week’s as well) time is currently at a premium, therefore this column will include the tips but only some very abbreviated spiels justifying each one.
Results for May 4 selections
Tips which were either scratched, outside the prescribed track conditions or too short in price
Scratched – nil
Track outside prescribed range – nil
Odds too short (less than $6 SP) – Vittoria, Monton
Tips where the SP was in the $6-$9.50 range (1 unit bets)
Flemington – Felidea ($6.00 SP, $7.20 BOB) – Won
Hawkesbury – Quidnuc ($7.00) – unplaced
Gold Coast – Petty Cury ($9.00) – unplaced
Gold Coast – Famous Seamus ($7.00 SP, $7.00 BOB) – Won
May 4 results: 4 selections, 2 winners, no placings, SP return of 13.00 units, BOB return of 14.20 units
2013 results: 27 selections, 27 units bet, 6 winners, 8 placings, SP return of 41.00 units (52% PoT), BOB return of 47.20 units (25% PoT)
2011-2013 results: 164 selections, 164 units bet, 21 winners, 48 placings, SP return of 155.00 units (-5% PoT), BOB return of 174.10 units (6% PoT)
Tips where the SP was in the $10+ range (0.5 unit bets)
Nil
May 4 results: no selections
2013 results: 12 selections, 6 units bet, 3 winners (1 dead heat), no placings, SP return of 16.00 units (167% PoT), BOB return of 18.70 units (212% PoT)
2011-2013 results: 81 selections, 40.5 units bet, 7 winners, 8 placings, SP return of 38.00 units (-6% PoT), BOB return of 44.85 units (11% PoT)
Overall Results
May 4: no selections
2013: 39 selections, 33 units bet, 9 winners (1 dead heat), 8 placings, SP return of 57.00 units (73% PoT), BOB return of 65.90 units (100% PoT)
2011-2013: 245 selections, 204.5 units bet, 28 winners, 56 placings, SP return of 193.00 units (-6% PoT), BOB return of 218.95 units (7% PoT)
Saturday May 11
Caulfield (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 5 No. 2 Pago Rock
- 5 fresh runs for 4-0-0 (only miss was at Group 3 level), 1 from 1 at the trip, drawn the pole, well in weight-wise after the claim.
Race 8 No. 1 Serene Star
- A real winner (8 from 15 overall), loves Caulfield (4 starts for 3-1-0), meet Vibrant Rouge 3.5 kilos better off for beating her last start.
Rosehill (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 7 No. 9 Renewed Vitality
- Best Bets informs me that he’s had 7 starts below Listed/ Group level for a 3-3-1 record, 3 starts at the track/ trip for 1-2-0, 4 starts back beaten only 2 lengths by Red Tracer at WFA (spotting her 2 kilos) – what price would she be with 52.5 kilos in this race?
Eagle Farm (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 1 No. 4 Griffon
- 9 starts first or second-up for 4-0-3 (7 starts for 1-1-1thereafter), won at this track/ trip at Listed level last time he was fresh.
Race 6 No. 8 Margins
- Last run was his first go at 2100 metres and he won well (only 1.3 seconds off track record), form through Transporter 2 starts ago was franked in the Hollindale Stakes, drawn better than a number of his key rivals.
Morphettville (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 4 No. 4 Tabulated
- Always improves significantly after 2 runs back (13 starts for 0-2-1 when first or second-up, 22 starts for 9-4-1 thereafter), 2 starts at track/ trip for 1-1-0, won four races last prep (starting with her third-up run).
Race 7 No. 2 Platelet
- Loves the trip (7 starts for 4-1-0, compared to 11 starts for 2-4-5 at all other distances), improves with racing (6 starts for 1-2-2 first or second-up, 12 starts for 5-3-3 thereafter), drawn to get the gun run, Moment Of Change may be a risk as favourite (seems like an afterthought race for him – why wouldn’t he be in Brisbane or spelling?), it’ll break my heart if she wins at good odds and I didn’t back her.
Thanks to Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
