Racing’s Kiss of Death – May 25

This week’s selections cover the May 25 meetings at Caulfield, Randwick and Doomben (featuring the Group 1 Doomben 10,000). Again, I’m going to stick with abbreviated spiels until (inevitably) a run of losers is struck.

Results for May 18 selections

Tips which were either scratched, outside the prescribed track conditions or too short in price

Scratched – nil

Track outside prescribed range – nil

Odds too short (less than $6 SP) – Riva De Lago

Tips where the SP was in the $6-$9.50 range (1 unit bets)

Scone – Plucky Belle ($7.00 SP) – unplaced

Doomben – Belltone ($9.00 SP, $11.10 BOB) – Won

May 18 results:   2 selections, 1 winner, no placings, SP return of 9.00 units, BOB return of 11.10 units

2013 results:  33 selections, 33 units bet, 9 winners, 9 placings, SP return of 67.50 units (105% PoT), BOB return of 75.90 units (130% PoT)

2011-2013 results: 170 selections, 170 units bet, 24 winners, 49 placings, SP return of 181.50 units (7% PoT), BOB return of 202.80 units (19% PoT)

Tips where the SP was in the $10+ range (0.5 unit bets)

Flemington – Johannapine ($14.00 SP) – unplaced

May 18 results:   1 selection, 0.5 units bet, no winners, no placings

2013 results: 14 selections, 7 units bet, 3 winners (1 dead heat), no placings, SP return of 16.00 units (129% PoT), BOB return of 18.70 units (167% PoT)

2011-2013 results: 83 selections, 41.5 units bet, 7 winners, 8 placings, SP return of 38.00 units (-8% PoT), BOB return of 44.85 units (8% PoT)

Overall Results

May 18:  3 selections, 2.5 units bet, 1 winner, no placings, SP return of 9.00 units, BOB return of 11.10 units

2013:  47 selections, 40 units bet, 12 winners (1 dead heat), 9 placings, SP return of 83.50 units (109% PoT), BOB return of 94.60 units (137% PoT)

2011-2013: 253 selections, 211.5 units bet, 31 winners, 57 placings, SP return of 219.50 units (4% PoT), BOB return of 247.65 units (17% PoT)

Saturday May 25

Caulfield (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 6 No. 12 Any Dream Will Do

• Excellent fresh record (6 starts first or second-up for 3-1-1), 5 starts for 3-0-1 on tracks rated dead or better, never run over 1000 metres before but has 9 starts for 4-2-1 at distances of less than 1400 metres, gets in two kilos under the limit after the claim.

Randwick (tips based on a track rating range of slow 6 to heavy 10)

Race 7 No. 8 Brian’s Honour

• A genuine wet-tracker (9 starts for 4-0-1 on slow or worse, compared to 15 starts for 1-5-0 on dead or better), total forgive run first-up (sat 3 wide with no cover on a dry track), won twice at BM89 level in Victoria last campaign so a BM80 race here presents no problem class wise.

Race 8 No. 11 Destiny’s Kiss

• Another genuine wet-tracker (9 starts for 4-1-0 on slow or heavy tracks), vastly improved after a couple of runs back (6 starts for 0-2-0 when first or second-up, 12 starts for 6-1-1 thereafter), second-up run was strong when a fast-finishing fourth (beaten less than two lengths), only three previous runs at this trip were either first or second-up so forgive that.

Doomben (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 4 No. 11 Classics

• Excellent record when fresh (8 starts for 4-2-0 when first or second-up, 6 starts for 1-0-0 thereafter), excellent record at the trip (6 starts for 3-1-0), drawn well in barrier four, gets three kilos off the hot favourite Arinosa.

Race 6 No. 2 Excellantes

• Did a very good job second-up over 1000 metres when edged out, better suited over 1100-1110 metres (5 previous starts for 3-1-0, compared to 23 starts for 4-7-2 at all other distances), drops 2.5 kilos in the weights, drawn to get the gun run in behind likely leaders Karuta Queen and Audacious Spirit.

Race 8 No. 1 Rangirangdoo

• Speed should be on the from the start with Buffering, Rain Affair, Your Song and Steps In Time running, so looking for a horse who can be strong at the end of a very tough 1350m (i.e. looking for a horse proven over further). He beat Epaulette home first-up in All-Aged Stakes, ran narrow second in Group 1 George Main over 1600 metres when last second-up, improves after a run back (7 starts for 1-1-1 first-up, 26 starts for 9-9-1 thereafter), arguably the only horse in the field who is a proven Group 1 WFA miler.

Race 9 No. 3 Precedence

• Did enough when running fifth over 2000 metres third-up carrying 60 kilos in open company, drops to 57.5 kilos here (only giving 3.5 kilos to the favourite Midsummer Sun, who won an RB89 race last starts), last campaign ran in the top-10 in the Melbourne Cup and then third at Group 2 WFA level over 2400 metres at Sandown.

 

Thanks to Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo