Racing’s Kiss of Death – November 2

This week’s selections cover the November 3 meetings at Flemington, with four Group 1 races headlined by the VRC Derby.

Results for October 19 selections

Tips which were either scratched, outside the prescribed track conditions or too short in price

Scratched – nil

Track outside prescribed range – nil

Odds too short (less than $6 SP) – Belltone, Scream Machine

Tips where the SP was in the $6-$9.50 range (1 unit bets)

Caulfield – Conservatorium ($6.50 SP) – unplaced

October 19 results:  1 selection, 1 unit bet, no winners, no placings

2013 results:  72 selections, 72 units bet, 14 winners, 19 placings, SP return of 107.00 units (49% PoT), BOB return of 117.80 units (64% PoT)

2011-2013 results:  209 selections, 209 units bet, 29 winners, 58 placings, SP return of 221.00 units (6% PoT), BOB return of 244.70 units (17% PoT)

Tips where the SP was in the $10+ range (0.5 unit bets)

Caulfield – Ready To Rip ($10.00 SP) – third

Caulfield – Julienas ($18.00) – unplaced

Randwick – Midsummer Sun ($20.00) – unplaced

October 19 results:   3 selections, 1.5 units bet, no winners, 1 placing

2013 results:  38 selections, 19 units bet, 4 winners (1 dead heat), 4 placings, SP return of 24.00 units (17% PoT), BOB return of 27.75 units (35% PoT)

2011-2013 results:  110 selections, 55 units bet, 8 winners, 12 placings, SP return of 46.00 units (-16% PoT), BOB return of 53.90 units (-2% PoT)

Overall Results

October 19 results:   4 selections, 2.5 units bet, no winners, 1 placing

2013:  113 selections, 92.5 units bet, 18 winners (1 dead heat), 23 placings, SP return of 131.00 units (42% PoT), BOB return of 145.55 units (57% PoT)

2011-2013: 319 selections, 264 units bet, 37 winners, 71 placings, SP return of 267.00 units (1% PoT), BOB return of 298.60 units (13% PoT)

Saturday November 2

Flemington (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 3 No. 2 Kellini  

Only 3 kilos above the limit despite winning this race last year before running 4^thin the Melbourne Cup, beaten only 2.7 lengths in the Caulfield Cup last start, improves with a few runs back from a spell (17 starts for 7-1-2 where third-up or later), 2 wins from 2 starts at the trip.

Race 5 No. 3 Side Glance  

Cox Plate form is often the best reference for this race (he is the only horse backing up from that race), tends to improve with a run under his belt (8 starts for 1-0-2 first-up, 21 starts for 6-4-5 thereafter), beaten only 4 lengths in the Cox Plate after over-racing fresh, his international form is superior to Jet Away’s.

Race 7 No. 6 Bonaria

Loves the Flemington mile (2 wins from 2 attempts), first 2 runs back this prep were much better than her usual fresh runs, total forgive run in the Group 1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes against the boys at Caulfield, meets Zonza 3 kilos better for being beaten 1.2 lengths at Listed level at Caulfield last start, drawn well.

Race 8 No. 14 Lonhspresso

6 starts for 3-2-1 in her career, 3 starts for as many wins when you subtract her first-up runs, 3 starts for as many wins at 1200 metres, ran on well with 59 kilos after copping a check when first-up over 1100 metres, drops to the 53-kilo limit here, wide gate for straight races may give her more options for finding some cover in running.

Race 9 No. 4 Launay

Forgive his last 2 efforts (found to be lame after the Group 2 PB Lawrence Stakes, then coming off a 7-week break and carrying 60 kilos behind Molto Bene last start), previous form all very good, loves the 1400 at Flemington (7 starts for 4 wins), meets British General 3 kilos better for beating him at this track/ trip 5 starts ago, those 2 gallopers should sit near the lead in a race devoid of obvious speed.

 

Thanks to Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo