Racing’s Kiss of Death – October 12
This week’s selections cover the October 12 meetings at Caulfield (featuring the Group 1 Caulfield Guineas, Toorak Handicap and Caulfield Stakes), Randwick (featuring the Group 1 Spring Champion Stakes) and Doomben.
Results for October 5 selections
Tips which were either scratched, outside the prescribed track conditions or too short in price
Scratched – nil
Track outside prescribed range – nil
Odds too short (less than $6 SP) – Moudre, Streama
Tips where the SP was in the $6-$9.50 range (1 unit bets)
Flemington – Platelet ($8.50 SP) – Won
October 5 results: 1 selection, 1 unit bet, 1 winner, no placings, SP return of 8.50 units, BOB return of 8.70 units
2013 results: 67 selections, 67 units bet, 14 winners, 18 placings, SP return of 107.00 units (60% PoT), BOB return of 117.80 units (76% PoT)
2011-2013 results: 204 selections, 204 units bet, 29 winners, 58 placings, SP return of 221.00 units (8% PoT), BOB return of 244.70 units (20% PoT)
Tips where the SP was in the $10+ range (0.5 unit bets)
Flemington – Jet Away ($21.00 SP) – unplaced
Randwick – Pinwheel ($15.00 SP) – unplaced
October 5 results: 2 selections, 1 unit bet, no winners, no placings
2013 results: 37 selections, 18.5 units bet, 4 winners (1 dead heat), 3 placings, SP return of 24.00 units (30% PoT), BOB return of 27.75 units (50% PoT)
2011-2013 results: 106 selections, 53 units bet, 8 winners, 11 placings, SP return of 46.00 units (-13% PoT), BOB return of 53.90 units (2% PoT)
Overall Results
October 5 results: 3 selections, 2 units bet, 1 winner, no placings, SP return of 8.50 units, BOB return of 8.70 units
2013: 104 selections, 85.5 units bet, 18 winners (1 dead heat), 21 placings, SP return of 131.00 units (53% PoT), BOB return of 145.55 units (70% PoT)
2011-2013: 310 selections, 257 units bet, 37 winners, 69 placings, SP return of 267.00 units (4% PoT), BOB return of 298.60 units (16% PoT)
Saturday October 12
Caulfield (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 7 No. 6 Floria
Races best fresh (8 starts for 2-3-0 when first or second-up, 19 starts for 1-2-4 thereafter), her Sydney autumn form was excellent (placed behind Red Tracer twice and Skyerush once all at Group level, plus a fourth placing behind Speediness at Listed level).
Race 9 No. 7 Budriguez
His runs this prep have been poor but he always takes a little while to hit his peak (14 starts for 2-3-1 when first or second-up, 19 starts for 10-2-1 thereafter), outstanding record at the mile with 6 wins from 7 starts (including a Group 2 dead heat with Puissance De Lune when only getting 1 kilo from that galloper), won his only previous start at the track/ trip, 50-1 is way over the odds.
Race 10 No. 6 Éclair Bing Bang
14 of last 21 Caulfield Guineas winners have drawn barriers 1 to 4, this year those gallopers were the first 4 home in the Guineas Prelude and this horse won it, his only beaten career run to date was a close third down the straight at Flemington.
Randwick (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 8 No. 3 Cathay Lady
Always improves after a run back (5 starts for 0-1-2 when first-up, 19 starts for 7-5-3 thereafter), loves the mile (8 starts for 4-1-1, compared to 16 starts for 3-5-4 at all other trips), her third behind Skyerush and Floria at Group 2 level in the autumn reads as very strong form for this.
Doomben (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 7 No. 1 Facile Tigre
5 of his last 6 runs have come in Group 1 company (twice placed in an Oakleigh Plate when first-up!), drops significantly in class to a standard open handicap and gets in with just 57.5 kilos after the claim (by comparison, he carried 59 kilos when last seen at Listed level), speed should be strong enough to suit his get back/ run on style.
Thanks to Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
