Racing’s 2014 Kiss of Death – May 24

This week’s selections cover the May 24 meetings at Flemington and Doomben (featuring the Group 1 Doomben Cup). Special shout out to River Lad, who ended the losing streak of this column after 43 straight losers (and 34 losing units).

Results for May 17 selections

Tips which were either scratched, outside the prescribed track conditions or too short in price

Scratched – nil

Track outside prescribed range – nil

Odds too short (less than $6 SP) – Pin Your Hopes

Tips where the SP was in the $6-$9.50 range (1 unit bets)

Scone – Aeronautical ($7.00 SP) – unplaced

Doomben – She Can Skate ($7.50) – unplaced

Doomben – River Lad ($9.50 SP, $9.50 BOB) – Won

May 17 results:  3 selections, 3 units bet, 1 winner, no placings, SP return of 9.50 units, BOB return of 9.50 units

2014:  48 selections, 48 units bet, 4 winners, 10 placings, SP return of 30.50 units (-36% PoT), BOB return of 30.50 units (-36% PoT)

2011-2014:  268 selections, 268 units bet, 33 winners, 73 placings, SP return of 251.50 units (-6% PoT), BOB return of 275.20 units (3% PoT)

Tips where the SP was in the $10+ range (0.5 unit bets)

Caulfield – Halle Rocks ($11.00 SP) – second

May 17 results:  1 selection, 0.5 units bet, no winners, 1 placing

2014:  29 selections, 14.5 units bet, 2 winners, 2 placings, SP return of 12.00 units (-17% PoT), BOB return of 13.60 units (-6% PoT)

2011-2014:  147 selections, 73.5 units bet, 11 winners, 14 placings, SP return of 64.00 units (-13% PoT), BOB return of 73.90 units (1% PoT)

Overall Results

May 17:  4 selections, 3.5 units bet, 1 winner, 1 placing, SP return of 9.50 units, BOB return of 9.50 units

2014:  77 selections, 62.5 units bet, 6 winners, 12 placings, SP return of 42.50 units (-32% PoT), BOB return of 44.10 units (-29% PoT)

2011-2014: 415 selections, 341.5 units bet, 44 winners, 87 placings, SP return of 315.50 units (-8% PoT), BOB return of 349.10 units (2% PoT)

Saturday May 24

Flemington (tips based on a track rating range good 2 to dead 5)

Race 4 No. 1 Tuscan Fire  

Hit the line very nicely second-up when third to Pin Your Hopes over a mile, much better suited over 2000 metres, outclassed last prep in multiple Group 1 races but finishing less than 5 lengths off the winner at Group 1 WFA level when third-up last time in bodes very well for a standard open handicap race, won 3 of 8 here including 3 starts at the track/ trip for 1-1-0 (unplaced run was at Group 1 level).

Race 7 No. 12 Gig 

Loves Flemington (8 starts for 3-1-2, including 3 starts for 1-1-1 at the track/ trip), her form this prep reads – beaten less than 2 lengths in a Group 1 WFA sprint, beaten a lip at this track/ distance when carrying 60 kilos, 2nd at this distance in a Group 3 at Caulfield, 6th in a Group 1 WFA sprint for the mares, 3rd in a Group 3 SWP race over a mile – great form for an open handicap where she gets in on the limit.


Doomben (tips based on a track rating range godo 2 to dead 5)

Race 3 No. 10 Bymonashee

Goes best fresh (12 starts for 4-4-1 first or second-up, 17 starts for 2-3-1 thereafter), 8 starts at the distance for 4-3-0 (21 starts for 2-4-2 at all other trips), 4 starts for 2-2-0 at the track/ trip, should get strong speed to suit, last prep he won first-up, was beaten 0.3 lengths by River lad second-up, 0.5 lengths by Tiger Tees in this grade third-up and 0.4 lengths over the longer 1350-metre journey before a spell.

Race 4 No. 1 Historian

WFA scale suits him here (would be giving the entire field 5 kilos or more if this were a handicap race), won at Group 1 WFA level in New Zealand four starts back, second to Silent Achiever at Group 1 WFA level in New Zealand two starts back, has won twice over the mile before.

Race 9 No. 3 Zennista

Forgive her last start 6th placing here where she had to lug 59 kilos third-up in a race that panned out for the swoopers, drops 3.5 kilos for this race (meeting most that beat her last between 2 and 3.5 kilos better at the weights), meets Precedence better at the weights for running 3rd to him in this race last year, should roll forward in a race where the speed looks less obvious than last time.


Thanks to Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo

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