Racing’s 2014 Kiss of Death

This week’s selections cover the April 5 meetings at Rosehill (featuring the Group 1 Golden Slipper and Group 1 The BMW) and Flemington.

Results for March 29 selections

Tips which were either scratched, outside the prescribed track conditions or too short in price

Scratched – nil

Track outside prescribed range – nil

Odds too short (less than $6 SP) – Single Style

Tips where the SP was in the $6-$9.50 range (1 unit bets)

Rosehill – El Roca ($7.00 SP) – third

Rosehill – Epingle ($6.50) – third

March 29 results:  2 selections, 2 units bet, no winners,2 placings

2014:  31 selections, 31 units bet, 3 winners, 7 placings, SP return of 21.00 units (-32% PoT), BOB return of 21.00 units (-32% PoT)

2011-2014:  251 selections, 251 units bet, 32 winners, 70 placings, SP return of 242.00 units (-4% PoT), BOB return of 265.70 units (6% PoT)

Tips where the SP was in the $10+ range (0.5 unit bets)

Rosehill – Temple Of Boom ($11.00 SP) – unplaced

March 29 results:  1 selections, 0.5 units bet, no winners,no placings

2014:  17 selections, 8.5 units bet, 2 winners, no placings, SP return of 12.00 units (41% PoT), BOB return of 13.60 units (60% PoT)

2011-2014:  135 selections, 67.5 units bet, 11 winners, 12 placings, SP return of 64.00 units (-5% PoT), BOB return of 73.90 units (9% PoT)

Overall Results

March 29:  3 selections, 2.5 units bet, no winners, 2 placings

2014:  48 selections, 39.5 units bet, 5 winners, 7 placings, SP return of 33.00 units (-16% PoT), BOB return of 34.60 units (-12% PoT)

2011-2014: 386 selections, 318.5 units bet, 43 winners, 82 placings, SP return of 306.00 units (-4% PoT), BOB return of 339.60 units (7% PoT)

Saturday April 5

Rosehill (tips based on a track rating range dead 4 to heavy 10)

Race 2 No. 1 Moriarty

Weighted to win here – only 1.5 kilos above all of the males in a Group 3 SWP race after racing in Group 1 WFA company (last 3 starts at Group 1 WFA level – 3rd beaten 0.9 lengths in the Mackinnon, 4th beaten 2.6 lengths in the Chipping Norton and 6th beaten 3.7 lengths in the Ranvet), 5 starts at the track/ trip for 2-1-0.

Race 3 No. 2 Hot Snitzel

He races best fresh (7 starts for 3-1-0 first-up, 18 starts for 3-3-2 thereafter), at this trip (12 starts for 4-2-1 over 1200m, 13 starts for 2-2-1 at other distances), and on tracks rated slow or worse (5 starts for 3-0-0, compared to 20 starts for 3-4-2 on good or dead. Last start before a spell he ran 2nd to Lankan Rupee at level weights.

Race 9 No. 15 Almighty Charge

Forgive his Newcastle Newmarket effort when caught 3 wide with no cover, his 4 starts prior yeilded 2 wins, a 2nd to Turbulent Jet and a photo second to Ecuador, handles all going and drawn well to race handy to the speed.

Flemington(tips based on a track rating range good 2 to slow 7)

Race 3 No. 4 Kazanluk

Hasn’t seen anything like an RB84 race for a while – last prep she was beaten 2.8 lengths by Fire Up Fifi in a Group 2 first-up, then beaten 4.6 lengths behind Catkins in a Group 3 (had no luck that day) and beaten 2 lengths Girl Gone Rockin’ in a Group 2. Won over 1300 and 1600 metres as a 3yo, so she has the zip to win over 1400.

Race 6 No. 11 Spillway

Very nice late run on when first-up in the Bendigo Mile, 3 starts over this trip for 2-0-1, soolid European Group 2/3 form over 2200-2400 metre range is very good for a race like this, bad gates not as big a problem from the 2000m start at Flemington.

Race 7 No. 2 Zamorar

Finally back to this preferred trip (3 starts for 2-1-0) off a 7-week freshen, last time he ran down the Flemington straight he gave Pago Rock 2.5 kilos and was beaten in a photo, only 1.5 kilos over the limit after the claim.

Race 8 No. 1 Dany The Fox

Back to his best last start with an easy win in this grade, last prep he ran 2nd in a Listed race and was then beaten less than 3 lengths in consecutive races at Group 1 level, in reasonably at the weights after the claim.

Comments (2)

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  1. Cliff Bingham says:

    Additional bet with Spillway coming out of Flemington Race 6:

    Flemington Race 6 No. 8 Ancient King

    Not quite as good as Spillway’s run but still solid to the line when he was also first-up in the Bendigo Mile, 5 starts on good-rated tracks for 3-1-1, similarly solid European Group 2/ Listed form over 2100-2200 metre range is very good for a race like this, drawn gate 5.

  2. Cliff Bingham says:

    Quick correction to yesterday’s column (now fixed above): Hot Snitzel is horse number 2 in race 3, not horse number 1.