Snakes and Ladders – a 2011 AFL Season Preview

If you were anything like me as a child, snakes and ladders was a staple of your board game-playing ways (at least until consoles such as the original Atari or Nintendo came along – then all bets were off). Nonetheless, snakes and ladders was a game that was phenomenally simple to understand and yet capable of producing high tension, dramatic comebacks and moments where defeat was stolen from the jaws of victory, causing you to storm out of your friend's house without saying goodbye to anyone. Okay, the last part is an exaggeration – such storm-offs were reserved for heartbreaking backyard cricket losses. But it was still a game where fortunes swung drastically as a matter of course.

In the same vein, fortunes swing drastically for at least a handful of AFL clubs every season. In the past decade, 33 sides have increased their win totals by at least four from the previous season, while 34 sides have seen their win totals decrease by at least four. Of the teams that improved, 28 won fewer than even games in the previous season, while six teams won eleven or more games. Of the teams that hit the skids, only six won fewer than eleven games in the previous season, while 27 teams won more than eleven games.

What does this tell us? Anyone who predicts that the 2011 ladder will shake out in a manner similar to 2010 will unequivocally be wrong. Three or four teams are likely to make a significant leap, while a similar number of other teams will find themselves on the decline. Just like in snakes and ladders. The difficulty is in predicting who will find themselves on a ladder, and who will come across a snake.

However, before we reach that point, there is one additional wrinkle to consider in 2011 – the inaugural season for the Gold Coast Suns. Let's start with the Suns, as how they are assessed has flow-on consequences for the fortunes of other teams.

15. Gold Coast

2011 outlook – 5 wins:

At the pointy end of the list, things look pretty bright with the signing of Gary Ablett Jnr and some talented teammates such as Michael Rischitelli, Jared Brennan and Jarrod Harbrow, as well as Nathan Bock and Campbell Brown adding some starch to the Suns’ backline. But after that, things become more concerning. Only twelve players on the Gold Coast list have played AFL football before. It therefore follows that when the Gold Coast kicks off their season in Round 2 following a first round bye, at least ten debutantes will take the field (as an aside, the AFL has done them no favours whatsoever with a first round bye, allowing other teams to shake off some cobwebs in the opening week before the Suns join the party). Whilst some of these debutantes will have gained experience in the VFL during 2010, it is worth remembering that the Suns only won five matches in that competition last year. Ultimately, we can probably expect the Suns to follow a similar path to extremely young and inexperienced squads such as the Melbourne and Richmond sides of recent years – exciting at their best, but prone to patches of poor form and potential suspect towards the end of the season. I’m predicting five wins for the Suns and a place near the cellar in 2011, with further improvement in each subsequent year and a finals debut in either 2013 or 2014.

The retention of a 22-match (24 rounds once byes are taken into account) season means that there are now 187 home and away matches, compared to 176 such games in 2010. Having predicted that the Gold Coast will win five of their 22 matches, that means their opponents would increase their collective win tally by six from 2010 (if you consider a draw to be equal to half of a win). It also means that the balance between 'snakes' and 'ladders' would become slightly skewed, with the prospect of more 'ladder' teams than 'snake' teams in 2011. Some predictions on this front:

1. Four teams will have a 'ladder' season and increase their win tally by at least four, with only three of these teams having won less than 11 games in 2010.
2. Three teams will have a 'snake' season and increase their loss tally by at least four, with only two of these teams having won 11 or more games in 2010.

So the question now becomes, which teams are most likely to fall into these categories?

1. Collingwood

2010 record: 17-4-1

Record against top-8 teams: 9-3 (played five teams twice)

Record against bottom-8 teams: 8-1-1 (played two teams twice)

Record in games decided by less than ten points: 2-2-1

2011 outlook – 18 wins: I can’t see them improving to 21 wins this season. With that said, their performance in the second half of 2010 (only draws against Melbourne and then St Kilda in the first grand final, along with a 3-point loss to Hawthorn in Round 22 stopped them running the slate after Round 10) should see them continue to be the benchmark of the competition in 2011. Expect the return of Chris Tarrant to add further depth to their backline. 

2. Hawthorn

2010 record: 12-9-1

Record against top-8 teams: 5-5-1 (played four teams twice)

Record against bottom-8 teams: 7-4 (played three teams twice)

Record in games decided by less than ten points: 4-4-1

2011 outlook – 17 wins: An injury-ravaged Hawthorn stumbled out of the gates to a 1-6 start in 2010. In the remainder of the home and away season, they won 11 games, drew with St Kilda and only lost on three occasions (to Geelong by only two points, at Port Adelaide by only eight points and at Sydney). They finished the year with the fourth best record of all against top-8 sides, and but for the poor start to the season could have ousted the Bulldogs from a top-4 spot. Some continuity in the ruck position would certainly help their cause, making Max Bailey an important cog in their 2011 campaign.

3. St Kilda 

2010 record: 15-6-1 (2010 ‘snake’ team, after winning 20 games in 2009)

Record against top-8 teams: 6-2-1 (played two teams twice)

Record against bottom-8 teams: 9-4 (played five teams twice)

Record in games decided by less than ten points: 2-0-1

2011 outlook – 15 wins: The Saints bring back a very similar looking list to the one which came so close to premiership glory last year – a side which restricted eight teams to less than 60 points and 13 teams to less than 70 points during the 2010 home and away season. The off-season nude photo scandal is unlikely to have any bearing on the on-field performance of the team. The fallout from the recent suspension of four players for indiscretions in New Zealand is more contentious – does the club fall apart at the seams, or galvanise itself like the Canterbury Bulldogs did in winning the 2004 NRL premiership? I’m tipping that the club galvanises. If there’s a small point of caution with the Saints it’s this: despite something of a dip in form in 2007, the Saints last missed the finals in 2002. Much as with Geelong, that wheel must eventually turn, and thus the premiership window for the Saints may soon be closing. This may play on the minds of Saints players come finals time.

4. Sydney 

2010 record: 13-9 (2010 ‘ladder’ team, after winning eight games in 2009)

Record against top-8 teams: 4-7 (played four teams twice)

Record against bottom-8 teams: 9-2 (played three teams twice)

Record in games decided by less than ten points: 2-3

2011 outlook – 14 wins: The Swans lost four straight matches last year when injuries to Shane Mumford and Mark Seaby left them without a ruckmen for that period, and were 13-5 for the remainder of the home and away season. New head coach John Longmire was previously an assistant to Paul Roos and thus the transition to a new coach should be a smooth one. And as Ross Lyon has proven at St Kilda, it’s unwise to doubt the ability of coaches who worked under Paul Roos.

5. Geelong

2010 record: 17-5

Record against top-8 teams: 7-4 (played four teams twice)

Record against bottom-8 teams: 10-1 (played three teams twice)

Record in games decided by less than ten points: 2-1

2011 outlook – 13 wins: The Cats have won 17 or more games in each of the past four home and away seasons – in the modern era of equalisation via the salary cap and the draft, such a run is likely to come to a halt sooner rather than later. The loss of Gary Ablett is substantial, and will mean that the remainder of the midfield can be tagged more closely in 2011. The loss of Mark Thompson will be less damaging but potentially still significant, as new coach Chris Scott may take a while to place his own stamp on the club. Expect the Cats to slide a little from the giddy heights of 2007 through to 2010.

6. Adelaide

2010 record: 9-13 (2010 ‘snake’ team, after winning 14 games in 2009)

Record against top-8 teams: 3-8 (played three teams twice)

Record against bottom-8 teams: 6-5 (played four teams twice)

Record in games decided by less than ten points: 1-3

2011 outlook – 13 wins: The Adelaide 2010 season highlighted how important it is to be true to yourself. Early in 2010, Neil Craig promised to change the style of play adopted by the Crows. They promptly stumbled to a 3-9 start, conceding an average of 97 points per game. Over the last ten rounds however, they reverted to their true defence-oriented style, conceding an average of 71 points per game. The result was six wins over this period, as well as a 3-point loss to Collingwood and an 8-point loss to the Bulldogs. As St Kilda has proven in recent years, a very successful club can still be built around a stifling defensive unit. Consider 2010 as an aberration for the Crows, who should bounce back this year.

7. Melbourne

2010 record: 8-13-1 (2010 ‘ladder’ team, after winning four games in 2009)

Record against top-8 teams: 1-8-1 (played two teams twice)

Record against bottom-8 teams: 7-5 (played five teams twice)

Record in games decided by less than ten points: 1-2-1

2011 outlook – 13 wins: The 2010 Demons side carried all of the hallmarks of a young  side that was a year away from being good: significant progression from the previous year; a patchwork season where they were exciting and dynamic for weeks at a time, yet also stumbled with 3-week losing streaks (Rounds 3-5 and 20-22) and a 5-week stretch from Rounds 10 to 14 where they only had a draw to show for it; and an ability to mix it with the best sides but not deliver the knockout blow (see the draw and 1-point losses to Collingwood, as well as the 4-point loss to the Bulldogs). This is a season for the Dees that could be best described by Yazz, a one hit wonder from the late 1980s – the only way is up.

8. Carlton

2010 record: 11-11

Record against top-8 teams: 2-8 (played three teams twice)

Record against bottom-8 teams: 9-3 (played four teams twice)

Record in games decided by less than ten points: 0-2

2011 outlook – 12 wins: I get the feeling that the Blues are still two years away from being a premiership contender – while their on-ball brigade is ready for the big time, their three ruckmen (Matthew Kreuzer, Shaun Hampson and Robert Warnock) are each under 24 years old with between 30 and 60 games at AFL level apiece under their belt, whilst the most likely key forward (Lachie Henderson) is 21 years old and has played 34 games at the top level. Given that Chris Judd will only turn 30 during the 2013 finals series, Blues fans should feel optimistic about the future.

9. Fremantle 

2010 record: 13-9 (2010 ‘ladder’ team, after winning six games in 2009)

Record against top-8 teams: 4-6 (played three teams twice)

Record against bottom-8 teams: 9-3 (played four teams twice)

Record in games decided by less than ten points: 3-1

2011 outlook – 11 wins: There is plenty to like about the newer brigade of Dockers – the likes of Michael Barlow, Anthony Morabito, Nathan Fyfe, Hayden Ballantyne and Matthew De Boer could form the nucleus of a very successful club over the next five years. However, Chris Tarrant’s departure and injury concerns for Barlow have left a large burden in the hands of Matthew Pavlich and Aaron Sandilands for 2011. Expect a minor drop-off this season and an improved performance in 2012, as the aforementioned younger players move past 50 games in the top flight and become more seasoned professionals.

10. Essendon

2010 record: 7-15

Record against top-8 teams: 5-9 (played six teams twice)

Record against bottom-8 teams: 2-6 (played one team twice)

Record in games decided by less than ten points: 2-2

2011 outlook – 11 wins: The 2010 Bombers’ season came unstuck for two primary reasons: a draw that proved to be the toughest in the competition (check out how many top-8 and bottom-8 sides they played twice) and a completely unacceptable record against bottom-8 sides. Essendon had the eighth best winning percentage against top-8 sides but the worst winning percentage against bottom-8 sides (including the supply of half of West Coast’s wins for the season), a sign of inconsistency and perhaps complacency from a side that had not earned the right to be at all complacent. Enter James Hird and Mark Thompson, the two most recent Essendon premiership captains and men who played their entire careers under Kevin Sheedy. Goodbye complacency. That and a more palatable draw is enough for me to suggest that they can rise to mid-table in 2011.

11. Western Bulldogs 

2010 record: 14-8

Record against top-8 teams: 4-6 (played three teams twice)

Record against bottom-8 teams: 10-2 (played four teams twice)

Record in games decided by less than ten points: 1-3

2011 outlook – 10 wins: My housemate Greg may have summed it up best when during a Friday night match involving the Bulldogs last year he suggested that “Just as the Dogs get the full-forward they’ve needed for years, everyone else caught up to their style of play”. The 2010 season was certainly less impressive than the 2008 and 2009 seasons – they were as close to seventh as they were to third (six premiership points away in either direction), failed to average 100 points ‘for’ during the home and away season and should have been dealt a ‘straight sets’ exit from the finals last year before Sydney clamped up in the second half of their semi-final clash. Suggesting that a side will decline is definitely harder to do than suggesting that a side will improve, but the Bulldogs look one of the teams most susceptible to a fall in 2011.

12. North Melbourne 

2010 record: 11-11

Record against top-8 teams: 3-9 (played four teams twice)

Record against bottom-8 teams: 8-2 (played three teams twice)

Record in games decided by less than ten points: 2-1

2011 outlook – 10 wins: Here’s another team with a relatively young list, Brent Harvey and Brady Rawlings aside. Jack Ziebell, Liam Anthony and Ryan Bastinac in particular look to be future stars, making Anthony’s injury problems throughout 2010, Ziebell’s broken leg last June and Bastinac’s projected three month layoff after recent knee surgery even more heartbreaking for North fans. Todd Goldstein seems a likely prospect as a ruckman, while the Kangaroos could certainly use a full season from Drew Petrie. Expect another year or two of development before they start to make a legitimate push for a top-4 spot.

13. Richmond

2010 record: 6-16

Record against top-8 teams: 2-10 (played four teams twice)

Record against bottom-8 teams: 4-6 (played three teams twice)

Record in games decided by less than ten points: 1-1

2011 outlook – 9 wins: After leaving the public wondering whether they would ever win another game during the first two months of the 2010 season, the young Tigers staged a mini-resurgence with six wins over the last 13 games. In some sense Richmond are mirroring the trajectory of Melbourne, albeit on a one or two year delay. The Demons had eight wins and a draw last year with some patches of very good footy interspersed with some inconsistency and wavering confidence levels – the Tigers may well follow suit this year.

14. Port Adelaide

2010 record: 10-12

Record against top-8 teams: 2-8 (played two teams twice)

Record against bottom-8 teams: 8-4 (played five teams twice)

Record in games decided by less than ten points: 4-1

2011 outlook – 6 wins: Port Adelaide were flattered by their record last year – they played the most bottom-8 teams twice of anyone in the competition and still had a percentage that was comparable to the teams who won seven or less games. In fact they only avoided a 7-15 record of their own via 1-point and 3-point wins against West Coast and a 3-point win against Essendon, at one stage losing nine consecutive games – seven of those by 26 points or more. And yet a very similar list is being trotted out again this year. Expect Port to be among the also-rans in 2011.

16. Brisbane

2010 record: 7-15 (2010 ‘snake’ team, after winning 13 games in 2009)

Record against top-8 teams: 3-8 (played three teams twice)

Record against bottom-8 teams: 4-7 (played four teams twice)

Record in games decided by less than ten points: 2-2-1

2011 outlook – 5 wins: I can understand the logic Michael Voss employed when he recruited a number of older AFL players for 2010 rather than investing in youth – they had finished sixth in 2009 and with the careers of Jonathan Brown and Simon Black drawing ever closer to the end, the window in which those two long-standing teammates of Voss could win a fourth flag was closing. But whilst the major gamble looked to be paying off with four consecutive wins to begin the season, a mere three wins in the last 18 games showed it to be a spectacular failure. The Lions now have a limited group of young kids developing a consequence, a lead balloon (sometimes referred to as Brendan Fevola) weighing the club and their salary cap space down, and a long and arduous road ahead.

17. West Coast

2010 record: 4-18 (2010 ‘snake’ team, after winning eight games in 2009)

Record against top-8 teams: 1-10 (played three teams twice)

Record against bottom-8 teams: 3-8 (played four teams twice)

Record in games decided by less than ten points: 1-3

2011 outlook – 5 wins: Not only did the Eagles crash to a 4-win season in 2010, but they brought their overall record from 2008 through to 2010 to a dismal 16 wins and 50 losses. Usually such a patch of form is either a result of the ‘R-word’ (rebuilding), or cause for the ‘R-word’. Yet the Eagles have remained betwixt and between, not willing to make the sweeping changes necessary to arrest their slide. Their 2011 list contains six players who have played more than 150 games at AFL level and a total of 18 players with more than 50 games under their belt. Where is the upside for this club? With the introduction of the Gold Coast and GWS on the horizon, now is not the time to be in need of generational change. To Eagles fans – I sincerely hope your favourite WAFL team performs well this year and brings you some happiness.

Predicted 2011 ‘ladder’ teams: Hawthorn, Adelaide, Melbourne, Essendon

Predicted 2011 ‘snake’ teams: Geelong, Western Bulldogs, Port Adelaide

Predicted ladder

1. Collingwood 72

2. Hawthorn 68

3. St Kilda 60

4. Sydney 56

5. Geelong 52

6. Adelaide 52

7. Melbourne 52

8. Carlton 48

9. Fremantle 44

10. Essendon 44

11. Western Bulldogs 40

12. North Melbourne 40

13. Richmond  36

14. Port Adelaide 24

15. Gold Coast  20

16. Brisbane 20

17. West Coast 20

Suggested bets

In top-4 betting, Hawthorn at $2.05 (offered by Sportsbet) and Sydney at $4.00 (Sports Alive) both appeal.

In top-8 betting, Sydney at $2.05 (Sports Alive) and Adelaide at $1.82 (Centrebet) are also worth serious consideration. Melbourne have been kept safer than expected in early markets, with $2.00 (Sports Alive) the best on offer at this stage – punters are probably getting slightly generous odds at that price, though the odds about Sydney are preferred.

The Western Bulldogs at $3.40 and to a lesser extent Fremantle at $2.50 (both Centrebet) are over the odds in ‘miss the top 8’ markets

The wooden spoon/ ‘least wins’ market should essentially be a race in four, with Richmond sneaking out of the battle for the cellar this year. It is worth a wager at surprisingly generous odds on Port Adelaide at $14 (Sports Alive) to win the least games.

Finally, the last team to finish fifth or worse on the ladder and win the premiership was Adelaide in 1998. Teams that have only won a single premiership since the joining the competition over a century ago do not carry my cash with regards to winning a second one, so that rules out the Saints. In the past 30 years, six sides have backed up a premiership win with another one in the following year (Carlton in 1982, Essendon in 1985, Hawthorn in 1989, Adelaide in 1998 and Brisbane in 2002 and 2003), suggesting that the $3.00 about Collingwood joining this group is a touch under the odds. Which leaves the Hawks at $7 (with various agencies) as my primary recommended bet, with the Swans at $31 (Sports Alive) as my best outsider.