Some Will Thrive, The Rest Will Fail, Only One Will Walk Tall: The NFL Preview
“Football players, like prostitutes, are in the business of ruining their bodies for the pleasure of strangers”
-Merle Kessler
This pretty much sums up football, the American version, and why it is so great. People are intrigued by the nature of the whore. It takes a different beast to consider selling your body and with it your mind and soul for the entertainment of strangers. On one level it seems selfless. But further analysis reveals a black void begging to be filled. By glory, by money, by fame, by adulation, by simple acts of the flesh. We don’t fully understand their mentality and probably never will but it doesn’t matter because they give us what we want and most of the time, at affordable rates. The writer certainly has no problem forking out time and the scratch to watch abnormally shaped grown men hurl their bodies at full throttle around a pristine green field marked to perfection all in the pursuit of a small piece of pigskin. There is a genuine thrill knowing that an heroic achievement like, perhaps, fifteen safeties in a single game or a horrifying injury like a shattered fibula or a disconnected ear was just around the corner. These are all cheap thrills but they are thrills nonetheless and when you throw the sheer joy of football gambling into the mix, you have a most pleasurable time when you indulge.
This was a philosophical opening but so be it. I am giddy at the prospect of NFL action returning. It is always a strange and fun and hyperactive time where different hours of operation are necessary and bookmakers become a little less eager to hear from you. They always fancy their chances but deep down they know they aren’t going to beat you at the pro football game. It keeps many awake at night and has caused a few, surely, to drink heavily at inappropriate times.
The clock is ticking over, the hour glass emptying, the time draws near.
The AFC
East
Some things give you stability in life, in both good times and bad, and the New England Patriots winning the AFC East is one of them. They are a pillar of consistency and their performance to remain dominant in the era of the salary cap is extraordinary. The Patriots, remarkably, have improved on the team that was only a few minutes away from becoming AFC champions. They won’t need those few minutes this season. They are going all the way. Again. Once more we will witness Bill Belichick and the Richie Cunningham of the NFL, Tom Brady, as they hold aloft yet another Super Bowl trophy. On some level it will cause vile bouts of nausea, because Boston sports is so self-indulgently melancholy that one cannot help but be overcome by uncontrollable bursts of vomiting. But on another we will have been right and that can count for a lot these days. The Pats made significant upgrades in the two areas they required improvement: wideout and linebacker. Acquiring Randy Moss and Wes Welker to play as the wide receivers was a fantastic move that will make the Patriots more potent offensively while quelling the internal disquiet over the lack of offensive support for Tom Brady. And picking up Ravens Pro Bowl linebacker Adalius Thomas was a masterstroke and may prove to be the difference between Super Bowl glory and an AFC Championship loss. The Jets will finish second though they should fall just short of back-to-back playoffs. They are a solid .500 team and with a running back upgrade in Thomas Jones, the Jets should be generally competitive. The schedule, however, has been unkind and that should see the J-E-T-S Jets fall just short. Miami will improve marginally this year but only due to some band-aid solutions that make no sense for their future. Trent Green is better than either Harrington or Culpepper but he is old and injury prone. They really should have taken Brady Quinn in the draft when they had the chance. Joey Porter improves their defense. The Dolphins should win seven games. Buffalo will be worse than usual and that is saying something. They took a real hit losing their three best defenders and their surly but talented runner Willis McGahee and they won’t recover. It is going to be a cold winter of failure in Buffalo this year and probably next. The one shining light is drafted running back Marshawn Lynch, who should give the Bills some oomph and hope.
North
The AFC North is simply brutal in both physicality and a gambling sense that it is tough to watch without wincing at least once. Ripped hamstrings and torn tickets. Blown knees and blown leads. Heavy hits: to quarterbacks and betting accounts. This is a division for men. And not for gamblers without balls of stone and at least a smidgen of self-loathing. There is the very real possibility that the difference between first and last in the division will be just one game. Finding the winner is just impossible. Cincinnati and Baltimore have both been projected to win nine and make the playoffs while the Steelers and Browns have been forecast to win eight apiece and miss out. The Bengals, on paper, are one of the best teams in the NFL. Carson Palmer sits just below Manning and Brady in terms of quality QB’s, Rudi Johnson is a workhorse at back and there is a talented array of wide receivers for Palmer to choose from. But the team just doesn’t seem to work. Something is wrong and if Marv Levy doesn’t remedy it and the Bengals miss January again, he will be begging for his supper. Baltimore again look good and appear to be helped by getting McGahee from Buffalo. He has to prove that he is tough enough to be a runner in the AFC North, however. The nuts for Baltimore, though, is the defense that is up there with the most dominant in the NFL. The Ravens will get off to a good start when their schedule is easiest and teams are finding combinations but may struggle down the stretch. Pittsburgh and Cleveland will both be good this season. The concern with Pittsburgh is the new system though by all reports, it has reinvigorated the team. Big Ben has had a full preparation this season and Willie Parker is a very good runner. How the defense works for Tomlin and without Joey Porter will determine the fate of Steel City. The Browns will be the big improvers in this division. The Browns have a strong offensive line, some very good receivers and an improved defense and with some very winnable games on their schedule, expect the Browns to go better than most pundits predict. The problems at quarterback may be the undoing of Cleveland who, it should be noted, have had an unusually good year in the world of professional sports.
South
There isn’t much that needs to be said in this most uninteresting of divisions. The Colts will again sweep to victory in the South. The Indy offensive juggernaut will roll on. Peyton Manning will throw to Harrison and Wayne who will catch and catch and score and catch. Joseph Addai will excel being the number one back this season and the advantage they get from the dome is immeasurable. The big worry for Tony Dungy will be the run defense of the Colts that was completely abhorrent in 2006. The Colts lost some key members of that defense and have actually gone backwards in terms of personnel. The health of safety Bob Sanders is key here. If he stays fit, the Colts will be playing for the AFC Championship. Indy has a very kind schedule that sees them play their difficult opponents at home so expect the Colts to record plenty of wins and have the Wildcard Weekend off. The Jags will be on the cusp of the playoffs and may sneak in though I don’t think they have the QB to do that. David Garrard is not very good and it is never too safe a proposition to throw your money on bad quarterbacks. That was a lesson that was learned the hard way and it is one well worth remembering. Their great 1-2 running punch of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew will win them plenty of games and their defense, which ranked number two in the NFL last year, will keep the Jags in nearly every contest. Never let the Jags go around without your money if they get the big plus. It is as good a bet as you will find. Both the Tennessee Titans and the Houston Texans will regress this year in the crude tally that determines which teams are successful and which teams are not. The Titans have a future superstar in Vince Young behind center but they let go of Travis Henry, a brilliant runner, and have lost key defender Pacman Jones to suspension for the season. Teams will have seen how Young plays after a year in the league and that will make his running game less effective. Expect the Titans to be largely shutdown this season. The Texans, as well, will be shutdown but that will mainly be a result of their own severe incompetence. Houston will be among the worst teams in professional football this or any other season and may struggle to win five games.
West
San Diego has all the tools for a Super Bowl run. They have one of the most dominant multi-faceted running backs of all-time in LT, they have a thoughtful and skilled young QB in Phillip Rivers, they have a fearsome defence led by Shawne Merriman and they have depth across the board. The problem is they have a completely new coaching staff led by perennial failure Norv Turner and a GM who gets his kicks from playing Alpha Dog. And teams struggle to go too far with bad coaching and internal division. The Chargers have so much talent that they are playoff certainties. But they will disappoint in January, upsetting a lot of people in many different places who bet heavily on San Diego playing in the Super Bowl. The Denver Broncos have moved on from the Jake Plummer era and thank the Lord for that. Jay Cutler is the new idol in the Rockies these days and he has genuine ability. Some wonderful recruiting has seen the Broncos improve at running back, wide receiver and corner. They went 9-7 last season and looked playoff certainties before a shock overtime loss to the Niners in the last game of the season cast them to the slot of regular season failure. The Broncos will atone this season with at least ten wins and a playoffs appearance. Kansas City will play the most boring football imaginable and win about half their games, as per the norm. There will be no playoffs appearance this season, however. Problems at quarterback and on the o-line makes nine wins just a touch too many. The Oakland Raiders will again embarrass themselves and the Bay Area. They still haven’t signed number one pick and potential saviour JaMarcus Russell, they seemingly hate each other, they have a coach who looks like he should still be at school and an owner who is losing his mind. Raiders fans will again be forced into extreme violence to get their kicks this season because victories will be as rare as talent in the city of Oakland.
Playoff Teams: Indianapolis, San Diego, New England, Cincinnati, Denver (Wild Card), Baltimore (Wild Card)
AFC Championship Game: New England-Indianapolis.
The NFC
East
It hurts to pick the Dallas Cowboys to win anything but that is what I’m doing. I have fought against the heart this time. For the good of us all. I loathe the Cowboys as much as anybody in the NFL. They represent a disgusting and evil element of America and their failures were the successes of us all. But those times are drawing to a close and things do not seem to be boding well for everything else. The Dallas Cowboys, most unfortunately, have a very talented side across the park. Quarterback Tony Romo is better than serviceable, the receiving corps is both solid and classy, the running back committee is among the better in the NFL and there are some game winners on defense. This is a tough division but the Cowboys look the most likely chance this season. The Philadelphia Eagles are the great hope to down the evil Cowboys. But their hopes swing entirely on the health of quarterback Donovan McNabb and running back Brian Westbrook. If either blow up so will the Eagles chances. The acquisition of Takeo Spikes improves an Eagles defence which was unexpectedly poor against the run last year. If they don’t win the division, they will likely take a wild cart spot. The New York Giants will also be around the 8-8 mark and if they had a semi-decent coach, they would be rated just ahead of Philly. But they don’t so they’re not. Tom Coughlin is a fool running without the confidence of his players or the New York Giants fanbase. He is being kept on so the Giants can make a play for Bill Cowher next season and he is the reason the Giants will most likely miss out in 2007. Dead man walking. That and the fact the players will bitch like thirteen year old girls at Christmas the entire season. Washington recruited well in getting London Fletcher and Fred Smoot into the Skin uniform but the lack of a quality quarterback looks to separate them from the rest of the division and that will tell come week seventeen. Jason Campbell is a project for the upcoming season and while he is capable of taking the Skins to a few wins, they won’t be threatening the playoffs this year.
North
Minnesota and Detroit are both horrible and disregard all that you read to the contrary. Defying belief, Detroit took yet another wide receiver with their first round pick while Minnesota look like they are trying to be whipped with the list of jokers they will field this season. Neither have more than five wins in them. Detroit Lions fans will cry for yet another year of failure while Minnesota Vikings fans will yearn for years gone by when they resembled something relevant. The Green Bay Packers are better than both of those sides but are most likely not good enough to make the playoffs. The Packers did very little to help our very favourite quarterback, the Gunslinger of Green Bay, and he can only take the Pack so far. They have left Favre with no running game, a bland receiving corps and not much defense. Games against Detroit and Minnesota will ensure the Packers win at least six. And this leaves the Chicago Bears. Again, they don’t seem like a team who deserve to win a division but do so by default as the entire NFC North has been in hibernation for the better part of the half-decade. Any team that has Rex Grossman as their quarterback is just not that good and can never, repeat never, be tipped to win the lot. They have a great defense and a brilliant special teams but they are a middling team at best with the ball and Rex will manage to lose the Bears at least a handful of games all by himself. The Bears win the North but that is not nearly the achievement it seems.
South
Michael Vick is in prison and now Joey Harrington is throwing the ball for the Atlanta Falcons. And that is about all that needs to be said about the Falcons and the woeful season they are in for. It does appear as if the New Orleans Saints will take this division for the second straight year. They are not rated that highly and they will not be able to ride the emotional wave they did last season but it does appear a statement of fact is that the New Orleans football team is the best in the NFC South. Drew Brees is good and is a perfect fit while Reggie Bush and Deuce McAllister compliment each other well in the backfield. They had some problems on defense last season and those problems willmost likely surface again this season. They play run-and-gun football and while that will probably take them to the playoffs, they won’t last long. These teams rarely do. Carolina and Tampa Bay are about equal in terms of talent and potential. Jake Delhomme is still QB for the Panthers and that will make them a highly ineffective team frowned upon by the Football Gods. They will look like worldbeaters and amateurs all in the space of a week. Only a fool would bet the Carolina Panthers. Tampa Bay looks to be an aging team that will be ruined by one or two injuries. Jeff Garcia behind center probably gives them more of a chance than the smorgasbord of knuckleheads they started at the position last season. They will improve but they are not good enough to win the division and they are doubtful contenders for January action.
West
This is the year the mighty San Francisco 49ers return to the realms of respectability. Queue the Welcome Back Kotter theme. This one is for Bill Walsh, an icon and a giant among men. The Niners will play with spirit and poise and sideline-to-sideline hustle and a genuine desire to hurt whoever is unlucky enough to be in their way. Nate Clements and Tully Banta-Cain add some real zing to the Niners defense as will Ole Miss star Patrick Willis. People will be hurt at Monster Park this season and they won’t be wearing red. And the Niners will be just as dangerous with the ball. Frank Gore is the Next Great Running Back while Alex Smith was quite decent last season. With the dapper Mike Nolan calling the shots, the Niners will return to playoff action. They will fight out the division with Seattle. The loser will most likely be good enough to win a wild card slot. Seattle are all class again this season and can make it as far as the Super Bowl. Matt Hasselbeck continues to be one of the most underrated hurlers in the NFL and Shaun Alexander is set to return to the benchmarks he set in 2004 and 2005. Mike Holmgren remains one of the great minds in the NFL and any outfit coached by him will be more than competitive. Seattle play that brilliant West Coast offense that is a delight to watch and fantastic to bet on when it is played out right. St. Louis have enough playmakers to cause some upsets but they are a long way from being a playoff team. They will rack up some big scores but they will let in plenty of points. Their defense is one of the worst in the NFL and they have seemingly done little to improve it. The Arizona Cardinals are still the Arizona Cardinals and will be until the end of the season so they can dutifully be disregarded.
Playoff Teams: Chicago, New Orleans, Dallas, Seattle, Philadelphia (Wild Card), San Francisco (Wild Card)
NFC Championship Game: Seattle-Dallas