Testing times

By ANGUS PALMER

The T20 World Cup and Champions League is finally over, new champions are crowned and the Australian domestic season is already well under way.

In terms of Test matches, the Australian team has had a relatively quiet period with no five-day cricket since the Windies tour in April.

But that’s all about to change, with a pivotal, hectic and interesting 12 month period set to dawn upon the former world champions.

This period includes a Test series against the current No.1 ranked team, a home series against the Lankans, trying to beat India for only the second time on their own soil and then trying to regain the Ashes – which we have not won in England since 2001!

If you are from Generation X or Y, that certainly sounds unfamiliar.

The direction the Australian team goes in over the next 10 months leading up to the Ashes will be closely monitored and scrutinised by cricket followers the world over, but by none more than our own supporters.

Let’s have a look at two important components regarding the Australian Test team:

First – how the Australian test team will potentially fair leading up to the Ashes; second – how our team will shape up with its personnel, a topic which has become so widely debated since we were dethroned as world champions.

There has been a lot of focus of late about Australia’s place in the ICC Rankings.

In Test matches, Australia is third, four points behind the leader South Africa and seven points ahead of fourth placed Pakistan.

The ICC formula for test rankings is a very accurate and concise method and Australia deserves to be where they are.

It’s pretty simple from here – they play first and second over the next four series and if they knock over the top two nations (a close series loss to India who are 5th may not ruin our hopes), then Michael Clarke will be back holding the ICC sceptre come this time next year.

In the short term, should Australia, ranked third, win the series in any way they will hold the No.1 spot on the ICC Test ratings for the first time since the defeat in England in August 2009.

Form, thereafter, could create a musical chairs scenario in the top three rankings, so consistency is paramount in the coming year.

 

International Program
Very soon the Australians will play two three-test series at home, first hosting South Africa and then Sri Lanka, followed by a platter of ODI’s at home against the Windies and the Lankans.

Australia then heads off to India in February for four test matches and a couple of ODIs.

There will be a six week downtime for some players while the IPL is played before Australia heads to the UK for the Champions Trophy and then, of course, the Ashes which commences on July 10.

 

Predictions
This summer at home I can see one dominant series and one close series.

First up is South Africa, in which Australia will go down to the Protea’s in a close contest (2-1).

The might of the Saffas batting and fast bowling unit is just too classy at Test level and their player rankings emphasizes this (four batsmen in the top 10 and three bowlers in the top 10 of the ICC rankings).

The Proteas were always going to beat England and the bookies were idiots backing them at $4 to win that series.

Two of the Tests will be played on the two bounciest wickets in the country, only adding to the argument South Africa will stay on top of the world during, and at the conclusion of this series.

The selectors will be left with some tough decisions at the conclusion of the South African series, as some players will struggle. This is a test series that will separate the sheep from the men.

 

Australia will beat the Sri Lankans perhaps 2-0, but this score line won’t be suggestive of the closeness of the series.

The Sri Lankans will show more fight with the bat than India last summer and could really dominate our attack at periods during the series.

Their test batting order is slightly better than Australia’s, but Australia’s pace battery is far superior to Sri Lanka’s (three Australians ranked in the top 10 of the ICC rankings).

The Sri Lankan bowlers will struggle and Australia’s batsmen will have the opportunity to put some big runs on the board.

 

Australia then heads off to India for four Tests through February and March.

India. like Australia, is in a rebuilding stage and this is a great opportunity for the Australians to get their second win on Indian soil.

The key to this series for Australia will be execution of blunting India’s top four – Sehwag, Gambhir, Kohli and Tendulkar – which they did so well last summer.

The Indian bowling unit isn’t firing, so there will be runs on offer. Added to this, additional acclimatisation to Indian conditions by the Australian IPL players will only add to Australia’s potential to amass big totals.

The result of this series is currently too hard to call. Ask me by the end of the year, and we will know a little better how both sides are faring.

Either way, I don’t see either side dominating and the team that is the most stable and cemented by February will most-likely win.

 

The Team
There is, evidently, still some concern about the makeup of the Australian test team considering their inconsistencies over the past two years.

Currently it seems the only most certain and stable situation is the form and class of the Australian Captain.

Australia’s batting is inconsistent and isn’t leaving as many opposition bowlers with sleepless nights, pondering how to work their counterparts over.

Australia only has three batsmen ranked in the top 35!

The bowling stocks are strong with a very talented pool, but injuries and lapses of form are unfortunately coming at times of need.

In Nathan Lyon, Australia probably has its equal best spinner – alongside Nathan Hauritz – since the retirement of Warne and MacGill.

The selectors have gone with Matthew Wade as the ‘keeper in a situation that was, presumably, no more than the flip of a coin featuring Brad Haddin’s face on the other side.

Personally, I think Haddin is still slightly ahead of Wade in both departments.

 

Batting
You can obviously lock in Clarke and Watson.

If Ponting and Hussey can maintain their form, their experience in the close contests will be crucial in the next year.

For both of these players, despite their age, their fitness and love of the game will keep them focused and primed for the year.

An Ashes swansong could be a great way for these two to finish up.

But what about the other two batting spots?

Well, Warner is next picked, but he must be more consistent if he is to become a well-regarded Test opener.

The next three series will be telling upon how his Test career will take shape.

Will opposition bowling units come up with a decisive plan to work him over and eventually out of the Test team, or will he continue to grow and evolve as a unique and destructive Test opener?

Time will tell.

Who will partner Warner at the top of the order over the next 12 months is another question. Cowan has another go for the time being, but surely must be on notice.

If he doesn’t start elevating that average well above 30, will Watson move back to partner Warner, bringing a new face into bat at No.6, possibly?

 

Who Next?
My preference is for David Hussey to bat at No.6, but it seems the selectors think differently to the public, so who knows?

What has Chris Rogers done to not get more opportunity, who like David Hussey is 35 and averages over 50 in first class cricket?

My second preference for selection is Rob Quiney.

His trajectory in first class cricket could pan out like it did for those batsmen who made their debuts eight-to-ten years ago –  on the other side of 30-years-old with a platter of first class runs and experience, which in turn was a recipe for success.

Will they give Phil Hughes, or perhaps Usman Khawaja, another go, which in essence becomes a situation of talent-versus-experience for the next in line.

Joe Burns from Queensland is another making inroads domestically, as is Alex Doolan. There are debatable and subjective points for each case here.

 

Bowling
The pace battery is certainly firing and there is depth, fortunately, to cover current injuries.

James Pattinson is on his way back, Mitchell Starc is coming on like a house on fire, Ben Hilfenhaus is always consistent and Peter Siddle is now concentrating solely on Test cricket.

Unfortunately, Ryan Harris and Pat Cummins have succumbed to injuries, but when both return you will have a unit which has pace, swing, seam and importantly, depth. My top three are Siddle, Pattinson and Starc right now with Nathan Lyon offering the spinning option and Watson as the fourth medium pacer.

Hilfenhaus, I feel, is just behind the other three quicks, but could well play ahead of Lyon in Brisbane. Despite Mitchell Johnson also being offered a CA contract, I see him at the back of the pecking order.

Nathan Coulter-Nile is the potential non-contracted bolter that could be given an opportunity in the next 12 months.

The bowling situation isn’t as concerning and a rotational and horses-for-courses policy will be adopted.

All of these bowlers will potentially get their opportunity to impress over the next nine months leading up to the Ashes.

 

We certainly are in for an exciting and absorbing period of Test cricket through until next winter with 15 Test matches over four series and a chance to reclaim that No, 1 spot.

Strap yourselves in!

 

 

 

Photo courtesy of Mark Kolbe/Getty Images Asia/Pac