The 2013 AFL Lines – Round 1 Part 2

Filed in AFL, AFL Lines by on March 28, 2013

The remainder of premiership footy is back for 2013! After a meagre two matches on the opening weekend, a more intriguing card of seven completes the first round of the season. Greg Oberscheidt and Cliff Bingham complete their assessment of each team’s initial foray into the 2013 premiership season in this week’s lines.


More questions than answers came out of the two matches last week. It’s pretty hard to lay the boot in after 1 game but the Crows were very ordinary and are a big chance of missing the eight this year. Tippet has left a gaping hole in their attack and I’m not sure Jenkins is up to the task. The Bombers were outstanding but they rely on big performances from fringe players to generate that kind of output. If injury strikes they’ll be spread thin. Heppell around the ball makes sense and he’ll be dominant this year. Goddard needs a defined role. When allow to sheep dog he can struggle.

Fremantle will be elated but they Eagles were missing key personnel so I’m still not convinced the Purple Haze are the number 1 seed in the west. This week looms interesting. A good time to watch some footy and get a bearing on how the new look teams will gel. Round 1 is always a fact finding mission but we should be able to find a bet or two…


The opening weekend may have only held two games, but still made me happy on a number of fronts. My Bombers won (although if they’d just shut it down for the last 60 seconds, the under bet would have saluted too), the Dockers picked up a win that may yet prove helpful when the finals positions are resolving, while our AFL Punters Guide fantasy footy “bolter” for Fremantle (Danyle Pearce) picked up 23 possessions and a couple of goals. Another weekend like that and the season will be off to a flying start!


Results for Round 1, Part 1 selections

GO – 1 selection, 1 unit bet, return of 0.00 units

CB – 2 selections, 2 units bet, return of 1.92 units

Total – 3 selections, 3 units bet, return of 1.92 units


(Please note – all times are EDST)


Carlton v Richmond, MCG, 7.40pm

Bookmakers’ line:  Carlton -4.5 to -5.5


The Richmond fans are spruiking top four already. Given 30 years of mediocrity it’s not hard to see why they get excited at the drop of a hat. Carlton have dominated this game in recent times and whilst the gap has closed somewhat, they still look the goods on paper. What remains to be seen is whether they can function to their capacity under the Malthouse model. Time will tell on that score. The Tigers have been building for this game for some time and will be desperate for the points to kick start their season. Reiwoldt will need a big game for the Tigers to get across the line. I’m leaning towards the points here but wil take a pass.


To my mind, too much stock is being placed in Carlton’s NAB Cup Grand Final loss. Since when were the Blues any good at Etihad? A cursory look at their 2012 records at the MCG and Etihad will tell you that the former venue is by far and away their preferred venue. I still think they’re a top-four side this year.

As for Richmond, 2013 really has to be the year for this squad of great potential to start delivering the goods. I think they will do enough to make the finals, but can’t yet put them on the same rung as Carlton.

Throw in the fact that Carlton has won the last nine matches head to head (eight by 20 points or more) and this seems an overly generous line for favourite backers – one unit on the Blues at the minus.



Western Bulldogs v Brisbane, Etihad Stadium, 1.40pm

Bookmakers’ line:  Western Bulldogs +19.5  


The Bulldogs are every chance to win the wooden spoon this year. They have some top liners but then it drops off pretty rapidly. Boyd out is a massive blow for the Dogs. He leads from the front and without his grunt work inside Griffen will have to win his own ball. There’s plenty to like about the Lions. We don’t generally put too much stock in the NAB cup results but the way they play their footy is promising and they have top line bookends in Brown and Merrett. They should win this one pretty easy. 1 unit on the Lions.


This line has moved substantially over the past fortnight. Usually that’s a sign that one team is being significantly over-bet, but in this case, I think it is the correct shift. The Bulldogs lost their last 11 matches of 2012 by an average of 59 points, then saw the likes of Lake, Hargrave and Gilbee depart and replaced them with kids from the draft. They are a legitimate threat for the wooden spoon this year, and with Boyd out for the opening couple of rounds, could be in major strife.

Meanwhile, the Lions finished 2012 with a flourish (winning three straight to close out the season) and carried their strong form into the NAB Cup, taking out the title with an impressive display against Carlton. They were an excellent bet when favourites last year, and I expect that trend to continue here.

Last year the Lions belted the Bulldogs by 58 points at Etihad in Round 13 and by 67 points at the Gabba in Round 23. I don’t think the gap is closed in the summer months – one unit on the Lions at the minus.


GWS v Sydney, ANZ Stadium, 4.40pm

Bookmakers’ line:  GWS +43.5 to +44.5


Sydney should win easily, but it’s hard to get enthused about this one. No bet.


At first glance, this line looks rather low, when you consider that the Swans won the two head to head matches last year by 63 and 94 points respectively. Nonetheless, it is difficult to get too excited about laying more than seven goals in the opening round of the season, no matter what circumstances present. No bet for me.



Gold Coast v St Kilda, Metricon Stadium, 7.40pm

Bookmakers’ line:  Gold Coast +22.5 to +24.5


I’ll watch this game but only to witness the debut of Jeager O’Meara. The much hyped 18 year old is ready to go after a year dominating the lower leagues. You’d expect St Kilda to be too strong for the Suns who still have a lot of improvement to make but the Saints are missing some key defenders and the Suns could steal one here. Really need to get a look at these outfits prior to putting the loot up.


I don’t like betting on the Gold Coast in matches where this even the slightest hint of expectation that they will be competitive (their 2012 record in these scenarios was appalling). Nor do I like betting on St Kilda away from Etihad Stadium. This is an easy game to stay away from.



Melbourne v Port Adelaide, MCG, 1.10pm

Bookmakers’ line:  Melbourne ML to -2.5


Probably the most intriguing match of the first round. Port have a new look outfit and have had a massive preseason. Their new president has been flogging the club over every conceivable media avenue and the mood is high. They’ll be on the improve. The Demons have some talented kids and have spent big on some key position players. They have to improve this year. Their senior players need to stand up and show the likes of Viney and Toumpas the way to go. The Power are in a better spot at the minute and they’ll take the points this week. 1 unit on the Power at the small plus.


Two teams who went a combined 9-34-1 last season squaring off in the opening round, with the visitors having a senior coach on debut. These are but a sample of the many reasons not to bet in this match.


North Melbourne v Collingwood, Etihad Stadium, 4.40pm

Bookmakers’ line:  North Melbourne +12.5 to +14.5


As per usual, the season starts with plenty of hope for the Blue and White army. They’ll have their work cut out for them though against the Pies who look fit and hungry. If North can break even through the centre then they could be pretty well placed. Reid is still under a cloud so Petrie could have a massive influence with some quality delivery. That being said, with the likes of Pendles, Swan, Beams and Thomas through the guts, winning that battle is easier said than done. I’ll sit this one out.


I love this match from a ‘horses for courses’ perspective.

Last year the Kangaroos won 10 out of 13 games at Etihad (as well as posting a 9-4 record at the spread), including wins over Geelong, Adelaide, Carlton and Collingwood (by 30 points). Meanwhile, the Magpies only played the venue three times, for two pretty underwhelming wins over the Bulldogs and Power, plus that loss to North.

Head to head, Collingwood have won four of the last five overall but North Melbourne have won three of the last five played at Etihad Stadium.

If this game were being played at the MCG, I’d be with the Magpies. At Etihad Stadium, though, I’ll happy have one unit on North Melbourne at the plus.



Hawthorn v Geelong, MCG, 3.15pm

Bookmakers’ line:  Hawthorn -7.5 to -8.5


Preseason form indicates that the Cats should be 3 to 4-goal favourites. The last 10 matches between the two clubs would indicate that the Cats should be unbackable. The smart money is on the plus. All over the plus. You should get on the plus. I can’t but you should. Take the points. You’d be mad not to.


Geelong has won the last nine matches between these teams – every match since the Hawks won the 2008 Grand Final. However, seven of those wins have come by nine points or less and five have come by less than a straight kick. The Cats were a strong bet in 2012 as underdogs, while the Hawks were similarly strong as favourites. I have the slightest of leans to the Cats at the plus, but not enough to back them.

One bet worth consideration here (weather and the line itself pending) is the over in total points markets. In 2012, both teams had a trend towards the over in both day games and also games at the MCG – in the case of the Hawks, it was a very strong trend in both instances. If the weather is fine, I think that the over can be bet on any figure of 190.5 and below.


Recommended bet summary


1 unit on Brisbane –19.5 at $1.91 (Centrebet)

1 unit on Port Adelaide +2.5 at $1.85 (Sportsbet)


1 unit on Carlton –4.5 at $1.92 (Flemington Sportsbet)

1 unit on Brisbane –19.5 at $1.91 (Centrebet)

1 unit on North Melbourne +14.5 at $1.91 (Centrebet)

1 unit on Hawthorn v Geelong total points over (if weather is fine and line is 190.5 or lower)


Thanks to Mark Nolan/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo


Comments (1)

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  1. Anonymous says:

    Took the ML and put some on the handicap. Looked like an absolute gift too. Boy was I wrong…