The 2013 AFL Lines – Round 10
In Round Nine the Crows and Eagles worked their way back into the top eight (the former aided by yet another North Melbourne apocalypse in the dying minutes of a game), while the top five sides pinched a break over the remainder of the field. Meanwhile, May has been much kinder to Greg Oberscheidt and Cliff Bingham than April was, but what of June? It all begins here with their Round 10 preview.
CB
I’ve been thinking a lot about this ‘either side by less than 15.5 points’ thing, because any time an option threatens to ruin a good punting year (I’m -4.25 units on this front and +5.93 units on lines/ points combined), you tend to delve into it further.
As our 2013 Punters’ Guide showed, this option hit the mark in 11 of 23 cases last year where the opening line was less than a goal, and 18 of 45 cases where the opening line was less than two goals. However, when using the closing lines (arguably a more efficient assessment tool, as the market adjusts to things like team changes, weather, etc.) to analyse 2013 to date, this option has collected in only two of 11 cases where the closing line was less than a goal, and only three of 20 cases where it was less than two goals.
While it’s a slightly crude metric, add the two years together and you’ve got 13/34 (break-even price of $2.62) where the line was less than a goal, and 21/65 (break-even price of $3.10) where the line was less than two goals. Compare those trike rates to the typical prices on offer and suddenly a venture that appeared profitable at first blush has hit a snag. It may be time for us to have a trial separation.
GO
What a weekend! You’d hate to be a North Melbourne supporter right now. Their season basically in tatters but with a slight shift in fortune / some cooler heads around the ball at the death they’d be entrenched in the top 4. They’re 2 wins from 11 matches decided by less than a goal over the last 30 home and away starts… not a pretty picture.
From the best game of the round to the worst, the Fremantle v Melbourne clash didn’t really ever offer much, but with the Dees dominated in the first half to trail by 70 with a paltry eight forward 50 entries for the half our combined 3 units wasn’t looking too secure.
We rode every shot for goal in the second half and it wasn’t until about 5 minutes to go that we thought we could squeeze out the under. Bless Hayden Crozier and his pair of posters. Never in doubt!
Results for Round 9 selections
GO – 6 selections, 7 units bet, return of 11.37 units
CB – 5 selections, 5 units bet, return of 5.58 units
Total – 11 selections, 12 units bet, return of 16.95 units
Results for 2013 selections
GO – 35 selections, 39 units bet, return of 32.35 units, -17% PoT
CB – 41 selections, 41 units bet, return of 42.68 units, 4% PoT
Total – 76 selections, 80 units bet, return of 75.03 units, -6% PoT
(Please note – all times are EST)
Friday
Brisbane (+27.5 to +28.5) v Collingwood, Gabba, 7.50pm
GO
The Pies struggled against the Swans who ran harder outside and wanted it more inside. The lack of genuine defensive options was prevalent and the lack of accountability through the midfield even more so. The Maggies are certainly battling right now and the Lions with a healthy start at home look like a reasonable play. That said, Merrett still out through suspension will hurt given the form of Cloke and if he gets off the leash, the Horse Whisperer could do some damage. The criticisms of the Pies midfield have been coming hot and fast and given their underlying quality, the prospect of a big bounce back is enough to give me pause.
CB
This feels like a trap game in terms of the line – the Lions were flattered by Carlton’s inaccurate kicking last week, while the Magpies were soundly beaten by Sydney.
The bet that I did like in this game is the under. While the Lions exhibit no strong tendencies to either the over or under, the Magpies are 15-4 under at night since the start of last year, and 6-1 under in interstate games over the same period. In addition, four of the last five matches between the teams have ended on a total of less than 175. However, I’ve missed the price on the under 182.5 offered by TAB Sportsbet (the under is now into $1.75), while Bet365 have moved their line down to 178.5 – I still have a slight lean to the under, but most of the value is now gone.
Saturday
Carlton (-80.5) v GWS, Etihad Stadium, 1.45pm
Adelaide (-3.5 to -4.0) v Fremantle, AAMI Stadium, 2.10pm
Sydney (-13.5) v Essendon, SCG, 4.40pm
Western Bulldogs (+9.5 to +10.5) v Port Adelaide, TIO Stadium, 7.40pm
Geelong (-55.5 to -56.5) v Gold Coast, Simonds Stadium, 7.40pm
CB
Three potentially close ones on Saturday, you beauty! Who do you like?
GO
Carlton will win easily but I’ll be staying away from it. 80 points is far too much for me.
Adelaide showed a lot of resolve last week to come from the depths and steal a win. Kerridge was a revelation and Douglas was sensational. Fremantle’s win leaves a few more questions though as they, thankfully, put the cue in the rack after half time. The points are tempting but this could be a trap game.
The Swans and the Dons looms as the game of the round both coming off impressive wins last week. Kennedy and Watson head to head in the midfield could be a cracker and Goodes was a stand out last week. Too many options through the middle for the Swans and too many much reliance on Watson for the Dons. Sydney to win this one comfortably.
CB
Leave me out of a Carlton side who can’t play Etihad and a GWS side who can’t play any ground.
The Crows-Dockers match is intriguing. At first glance I struggled to see how Adelaide came up as favourites, but then it hit me – the coaching matchup. Since the start of 2009, Ross Lyon has a 0-3 record against Hird, a 0-3 record against Sanderson, a 1-3-1 record against Clarkson and a 71-22-3 record against everyone else. Lyon’s St Kilda and Fremantle teams have been able to split honours with the 2009-2013 Cats and Pies overall, but can’t match it with the three coaches noted. It’s amazing. I’m with the Crows at the minus on that basis alone.
We’ve got another bet in the subsequent game via the Bombers at the plus. Since 2012, the Bombers are 5-2 ATS interstate (including 3-0 as underdogs). Meanwhile, the Swans are 1-4 ATS at home this season and since 2012 are 13-3 ATS in day matches but only 7-11 in the twilight/ evening. The last four matches between the teams (two played in Sydney) have been decided by less than 10 points. I’m taking the start.
GO
The Dogs were better last week and Port’s halt has been remarkable. I’d generally take the Bullies here but the Darwin factor is enough for me to cool my jets.
Much the same with KP under lights. My feel is that the Suns will cover, they have in the majority of games this year but at what is basically a new venue I’ll watch and learn with this one.
CB
The ATS trends all point to the Power, but the recent head-to-head record is all in favour of the Bulldogs. I’ll split the difference and sit it out.
At face value, a line of over nine goals seems like a big start to be offering to the Suns, who are the big improvers of the competition in 2013. However, with Kardinia Park going under lights for the first time, I’d rather see how the Cats respond to their return home without a financial interest.
Sunday
Melbourne (+88.5 to +90.5) v Hawthorn, MCG, 3.15pm
North Melbourne (-24.5 to -26.5) v St Kilda, Etihad Stadium, 4.40pm
CB
How good has betting the over in Hawthorn day matches been in recent times? They’re 14-4 over (based on opening lines) or 13-5 over (based on closing lines, which is what I’ll be using from now on) in the day since the start of 2012, while the Demons conceded 130 points last week to a Dockers side missing multiple key forwards. Oh, and they conceded 177 points to the Eagles and 184 to the Bombers in the other games they’ve played against top-six sides thus far. With all of that said, the books are wising up to this one – with a line around the 210.5 mark, I can’t follow the trends here and will have to sit it out.
I’m not sure what to make of North after last weekend – will this be a ‘statement game’ where they race away to win by 10 goals, or will the mounting pressure to hang onto a lead get the better of them once again? On paper, they should win this by plenty – but they won’t be carrying my cash.
GO
Once again, the 12-goal plus line just seems like too much work. You couldn’t trust the Demons to cover their leftovers so this one is an easy leave.
North on the other hand must win and win big. Their coach called them diabolical and it’s hard to disagree. They’ve made a habit in recent times of pumping the lesser lights though and I see no reason why this won’t be the case this week. St Kilda has been valiant but they won’t get within a bulls roar of the Roos on Sunday. Load up on the minus.
Monday
West Coast (-24.5 to -25.5) v Richmond, Patersons Stadium, 7.50pm
CB
Remember when Richmond started the year with three straight wins and we were feeling pretty good about finding a top-eight spot for them in our Punters’ Guide? Me neither. Meanwhile, but for an epic collapse against Port, the Eagles would have five straight wins entering this match.
I’m wary of the line, but quite like the under. Since 2012, West Coast is 11-2 under in the twilight/ evening combined, while Richmond is 7-7. Throw in the overarching trends by time of day (the twilight/ evening have totalled 27-18, or 60%, under so far in 2013) and I’m happy to be on that side of the ledger.
GO
The new ruck rule has certainly had an impact this year with the bigger bodies, Jolly, Mumford and Maric being much less effective at stoppages and the more nimble and athletic types, Natinui, Luenberger and Pike being able to dominate. Marics’ fall from form has made it tough for the Tigers and Nic Nat has been a monster since returning from injury. I’m a bit worried about the Tigers, I’ve backed them for the Eight but they need some wins and they need them now. I’m not sure where they’re coming from though and I’m confident it won’t be this week – Eagles by plenty.
Recommended bet summary
GO
1 unit on Sydney -13.5 at $1.92 (Luxbet)
2 units on North Melbourne -24.5 at $1.92 (Luxbet)
1 unit on West Coast -24.5 at $1.92 (Sportsbet)
CB
1 unit on Adelaide -3.5 at $1.92 (Sportsbet)
1 unit on Essendon +13.5 at $1.92 (Luxbet)
1 unit on West Coast v Richmond under 190.5 total pts at $1.87 (TAB Sportsbet)
Thanks to Mark Nolan/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
