The 2013 AFL Lines – Round 12
Round 12 of the AFL season brings with it the second batch of bye weeks and a slew of matches with a significant favourite. Will the weekend go to script, or can an underdog or two upset the proverbial applecart? Greg Oberscheidt and Cliff Bingham preview the round of fixtures.
CB
Week two of my separation with the ‘either team by less than 15.5 points’ option saw yet another match (this time Carlton v Essendon) get home. Nonetheless, I’m taking solace from both the Bombers’ stirring victory and the fact that we’ve fought back from a significant net loss after Round 5 to show a small combined profit before the midpoint of the season. We’re back in the black!
GO
15 on for 23 back in the last three weeks has certainly helped my cause but I’m still dragging us down. I was a bee’s dick away from jumping on your either side under but given it got up the week before I was gun shy. It’ll get up ever start for the rest of the year you’d reckon…Some pretty solid games this week but some pretty solid lines as well. I’m going to go off the reservation and try something a little risqué…
Results for Round 11 selections
GO – 3 selections, 4 units bet, return of 5.73 units
CB – 4 selections, 4 units bet, return of 7.44 units
Total – 7 selections, 8 units bet, return of 13.17 units
Results for 2013 selections
GO – 41 selections, 47 units bet, return of 43.84 units, -7% PoT
CB – 48 selections, 48 units bet, return of 51.99 units, 8% PoT
Total – 89 selections, 95 units bet, return of 95.83 units, 1% PoT
(Please note – all times are EST)
Friday
Carlton (+24.5) v Hawthorn, Etihad Stadium, 7.50pm
GO
The Blues couldn't hold on after a big start last week and it's tough to see them holding the fort against a rested Hawks unit. Franklin hasn't dominated the scoreboard this year but plays the Blues well. They don't have a natural match up for him. Osbourne and Puopolo will tag Walker and Scotland and denying the Blues clean delivery off half back will be key. Lake is fit enough and more than good enough to run with Waite so the Blues might struggle to kick a score if Garlett and Betts don't fire. Hawks by plenty for me. Leg 1 in the multi as well will be the Hawks -5.5 @ 1.38 custom line with Centrebet.
CB
We’ve been over this ground before – Carlton suck at Etihad (5-8 ATS since the start of 2012, and a similarly unflattering record in the couple of seasons prior to that). The Blues are also 0-4 ATS as home state underdogs and 0-5 ATS in night games this year. Contrast this with the Hawks, who are 14-10 ATS as home state favourites, 7-2 at night and 2-0 at Etihad over the same period. It’s the Hawks at the minus for mine.
Saturday
Richmond (-20.5) v Adelaide, MCG, 1.40pm
Fremantle (-48.5 to -49.5) v Brisbane, Patersons Stadium, 4.40pm
Essendon (-33.5) v Gold Coast, Etihad Stadium, 7.40pm
CB
Three clear favourites on Saturday – do you give any of the underdogs a shot at an upset?
GO
The Crows could possibly rock the Tigers. They were clearly outclassed last week by the Swans but Sydney's performance was the best four quarter effort we've seen from anyone this year. Adelaide will be embarrassed and you'd expect them to come out very hard. The midfield battle will tell the tale. Both sides run hard and have plenty of good contested ball winners. Match of the round for mine and leg 2 in the multi with the Crows +39.5 @ $1.33.
Freo will dust the Lions at home. Rockliff back helps the Lions but with Rich still out and Moloney now in the casualty ward they are pretty skinny through the guts. They lack potency up forward and you can't see them managing more than a couple of majors a term. Leg 3 is Fremantle -29.5 @ $1.32.
CB
On the back of their last performances alone, you would only want the Tigers at the minus in the first game. However, they have a long and storied history of dropping games that they should win comfortably, and are only 1-5 ATS at the MCG this season. I’m steering clear of this one.
I’m repeating myself here, but check out Freo's total points outcomes at home in 2012 against poor sides (points conceded in brackets): 99 (35) v Brisbane, 134 (47) v Port Adelaide, 152 (57) v Western Bulldogs, 169 (37) v GWS and 141 v Melbourne. Since the start of 2012, they’re 9-1 under and 7-3 ATS as home favourites, while going 17-7 under and 16-8 ATS when off a break of seven days or more. Meanwhile, the Lions are 2-6 ATS (and 5-3 under) this season off a break of seven days or more and 3-0 under as a road underdog. My only concern here is that an eight-goal line and a total in the mid-160s implies that a 105-55 score line would only just meet both the minus and the under. There’s not a lot of wiggle room there. Despite the stats noted above, I actually prefer the minus to the under in this match.
GO
The Bombers did really well to pull it out of the fire last week and their form can't be underestimated but how good are the Suns tracking? They've been super impressive against the ladder leaders, came back from an early dusting to dominate North in the rain and still have 4 of their best 22 out with injury. Their confidence is sky high. Ablett is a genius. The English language isn't expansive enough to describe how good he is but it's the form of Brown, Lynch, Prestia, O'Meara, Thompson, McKenzie, Shaw…you could go on all day. You've got to like the start in this one. Leg 4 is the Suns +50.5 @ $1.33.
CB
If I wasn’t a Bombers fan, I’d be tipping you strongly into the Suns at the plus. Essendon are 4-10 ATS at Etihad since the start of 2012, while in 2013 the Suns are 8-2 ATS overall, 3-0 as interstate underdogs and 4-2 at night. Putting a form line through the Cats (Bombers lost by 28, Suns by 52) and the Hawks (better than the Bombers, only beat the Suns by 26), this line is at least two goals too big.
What I will be betting here is the under. Since 2012 the Bombers are 12-7 under at night while the Suns are 10-2 under. The Bombers are also 8-6 under at Etihad and 9-7 under as home state favourites over the same period.
Sunday
GWS (+29.5 to +30.5) v Port Adelaide, Skoda Stadium, 1.10pm
Collingwood (-37.5 to -38.5) v Western Bulldogs, Etihad Stadium, 4.40pm
CB
I can’t get enthused about either of these games on pretty much any level – not even at the absolute outpost of statistical nerd end of the spectrum. Can we wrap this up shortly?
GO
The Pies and the Dogs is a 'leave it alone' affair but GWS on the back of some really good form last week will be the last leg of my multi. Custom line with Centrebet will give you $1.32 for a 55.5 point start. Pretty hard to see Port winding that up.
PS Jermery Cameron has now been likened to the latest Legend of our game, Royce Hart. Given that Sheedy played for Tom Hafey you'd imagine the game plan for the Giants is something akin to "Kick it to Jez and get the fuck out of his way!" It's hard to fault. The kid is a freak.
Recommended bet summary
GO
1 unit on Hawthorn -24.5 at $1.91 (Centrebet)
1 unit on Gold Coast +33.5 at $1.91 (Centrebet)
1.5 units on Hawthorn -5.5 > Adelaide +39.5 > Fremantle -29.5 > Gold Coast +50.5 > GWS + 55.5 at $4.25 (Custom Lines via Centrebet)
CB
1 unit on Hawthorn -24.5 at $1.91 (Centrebet)
1 unit on Fremantle -48.5 at $1.91 (Centrebet)
1 unit on Essendon v Gold Coast under 190.5 total pts at $1.87 (TAB Sportsbet)
Thanks to Mark Nolan/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
