The 2013 AFL Lines – Round 14

Filed in AFL, AFL Lines by on June 27, 2013

Finally, we’re back to a full schedule of matches this weekend! Port Adelaide and Brisbane provided the big news of last weekend in upsetting Sydney and Geelong respectively – can anyone repeat the dose this time around? Greg Oberscheidt and Cliff Bingham preview the weekend ahead.


Fun fact: In the first three weeks over the year, the average total points line was 185.5 and the over went 21-6. Over Rounds 4 to 9, the average total points line was around 193 and the results went 36-18 to the under. Over Rounds 10 to 13, the average total points line was around 184 (a handful of rain-affected matches dragged this average down – if you remove them, the average was around 190) and the under saluted on 22 of 27 occasions.

To borrow a quote from our Punters Guide to the 2013 AFL season: “With 45.4 per cent of (2012) matches finishing on 180 points or below, 14.0 per cent finishing in the 181-190 range and the remaining 40.6 per cent finishing above 190, the median total points betting line for the year should have been set at around 183.5. When considering total points lines in 2013, this should be the starting point from which allowances are then made for the style of play of each team, game-specific circumstances and the like.”

So far the percentages for 2013 are as follows: 38.0 per cent of matches finishing on 180 points or below, 19.4 per cent finishing in the 181-190 range, 42.6 per cent finishing above 190. These results imply a median points line of around 186.

To recap, the median total in 2013 is higher than was the case in 2012, but the results have skewed heavily to the under. This suggests that books have simply set the lines too high as a general rule.

Now then…. in a potential overreaction to the major run on the under in recent weeks, seven of the nine total points lines this week are likely to finish at 180.5 or below. Hmmm…


What a cracking weekend of footy. The Port and Lions results can almost make you forget that you did your bundle. I watched the last quarter of the Lions Cats game again last night and it is simply incredible. That’s modern footy, once you’ve got momentum it is incredibly hard for your opponents to rest it away. Some big news off the field as well with your boys (read singular speaking for the masses) admitting to using a banned substance…Very hard to see Jobe escaping sanction now that it’s been aired. It’s a shame given how well he’s playing but at the same time, I hate Essendon so…


Results for Round 13 selections

GO – 3 selections, 3.5 units bet, return of 1.91 units

CB – 3 selections, 3 units bet, return of 3.78 units

Total – 6 selections, 6.5 units bet, return of 5.69 units

Results for 2013 selections

GO – 47 selections, 54 units bet, return of 45.75 units, -15% PoT

CB – 54 selections, 54 units bet, return of 57.64 units, 7% PoT

Total – 101 selections, 108 units bet, return of 103.39 units, -4% PoT


(Please note – all times are EST)


West Coast (+4.5) v Essendon, Patersons Stadium, 8.10pm


On form you have to like the Bombers here. A genuine top 4 side, admittedly on the road but with Hurn and Selwood out of the Eagles outfit, it’s hard to see the Eagles getting up. Subiaco hasn't been the fortress of recent year and with Watson high on drugs…I mean, a likely starter there is every chance the Bombers will pinch this one.


I can’t think objectively about this game, especially as this was around the point last year where the wheels well and truly fell off. No bet. Go Dons!


Sydney (-19.5) v Carlton, SCG, 7.50pm


The Swans can fuck right off.


I think the Swans are vulnerable here. Over 2012 and 2013, they are 3-6 ATS off a break of six days or less and 5-8 ATS at night – compared to ATS records of 14-4 in the day and 19-7 off a break of seven days or more, those are poor outcomes. Over the same period, the blues are 4-3 interstate and 2-0 as interstate underdogs. Throw in the loss of Goodes and the fact that Carlton’s biggest loss of the season to date has been by only 17 points and I think this line is at least a goal too high – one unit on the plus.


Gold Coast (+5.5 to +8.5) v Adelaide, Metricon Stadium, 1.40pm

Port Adelaide (+18.5 to +19.5) v Collingwood, AAMI Stadium, 4.40pm 

Melbourne (+30.5 to +31.5) v Western Bulldogs, MCG, 7.40pm

Geelong (-11.5 to -13.0) v Fremantle, Simonds Stadium, 7.40pm


Three intriguing matches and a real “who cares” affair on Saturday – who do you like?


Comparing form you’d have to think the Suns are a big show against the Crows. They play their home ground well and will be able to mitigate the loss of Lynch with the return of Dixon and May. Bennell should also return from injury this week. Gold Coast will have plenty of belief they are a real chance to win this one.

Port will be up and about after their amazing win last week over the premiership fancies. Sydney are a better side than the Pies by a fair stretch so at first glance the 19.5 points look really enticing. The only questions that need asking are whether or not the Power can repeat the dose at home which is doubtful and whether you think the Pies have more to play for than the Swans did which they surely do. A bit of a trap for mine so I’m happy to stay off this one. 


At a quick glance, the form lines for both teams are similar. Both are 5-7. Both have five wins against teams below them on the ladder and four losses to teams currently sitting fifth or higher on the ladder. Both came from well behind North Melbourne to defeat them recently. If anything, the Suns’ recent performances have overshadowed those of the Crows (the Suns are 9-3 ATS this year, while the Crows are 6-6). In light of all this, how do the Crows jump as favourites on the road? I don’t understand that at all and will be grabbing the Suns at the plus.

The Magpies have an excellent recent record interstate and in particular at AAMI (winning their last eight matches at the venue), but the Power have become quite difficult to take on this year, covering in 8 of 12 matches thus far. The bet I do like here is the under. Over 2012 and 2013, Port are 12-5 under as home underdogs, 3-2 under in the twilight and 16-9 under off a break of seven days or more. The Magpies are 7-1 under interstate, 6-2 under in the twilight and 17-10 under off a break of seven days or more over the same period.


The Cats will be trying their best to make it up to their fans after surrendering last week but I’m not sure that is going to be enough. Fremantle are travelling as good as anyone right at the minute and with Pavlich a likely starter it’ll be a massive game. If Freo get the points they’ll go a long way towards finishing top two and they’ll know it. Regardless of the victor, this one will be very close.


Should the Dogs be five goal favourites against anyone? They’ve had four games away from Etihad so far this year (against the Crows, Eagles, Suns and Power) and failed to crack 70 points in any of them. Which brings me quite neatly to betting the under once again. Over the past two seasons Melbourne are 13-8 under as underdogs in Victoria and 5-1 under at night, while the Dogs are 3-0 under as favourites in Victoria and 8-2 under at night. Done and done.

Fun fact 1: Both teams have won 18 of their last 23 matches (although Freo also have a draw in that mix)

Fun fact 2: Ross Lyon is 2-0 up on Chris Scott since moving west.

Fun fact 3: The Cats are 6-13 ATS as home state favourites since the start of last season, while the Dockers are 11-6 ATS interstate

Fun fact 4: I’m bypassing the usual “Ross Lyon under” cash cow (Geelong are an over team, Freo’s under trends are stronger at home and this line is already suspiciously low at 170.5) to back the Dockers at the plus.


Hawthorn (-44.5 to -45.5) v Brisbane, Aurora Stadium, 1.10pm

North Melbourne (-73.5 to -75.5) v GWS, Etihad Stadium, 3.15pm

Richmond (-26.5 to -28.5) v St Kilda, MCG, 4.40pm


Nothing appeals to me from either of the first two games. Moving on….

Here’s what I really like about the 2013 Tigers – their last six wins have come by 67, 41, 34, 41, 38 and 60 points, while their only four losses this season have come against teams above them on the ladder. When you consider that three of those six wins came against teams well above St Kilda on the ladder and the two biggest wins came against a broadly comparable side in the Western Bulldogs, the trends stack up well for another convincing Richmond victory. I’m happy to lay the points here.


Hating the first two games here. Hawks comfortably but they may be looking to rest a few so it’s not worth entertaining. North could win this game by 160 points but could just as easily struggle and only do it by 3 goals. Backing the Roos to cover this year is haemorrhaging loot so it’s another easy leave. 

Richmond however have consistently proven their ability to beat the weaker sides by plenty and the Saints will be no different this week. St Kilda are marginally, if any better than the Dogs right now so a 10 goal margin is certainly in play. The Tigers can smell finals and they have a balanced side full of contributors. Load up on the minus in this one.


Recommended bet summary


1 unit on Essendon -4.5 at $1.91 (Centrbet)

1 unit on Gold Coast +8.5 at $1.91 (Centrebet)

1 unit on Fremantle +13.0 at $1.92 (Luxbet)

2 units on Richmond -28.5 at $1.91 (Sportingbet)



1 unit on Carlton +19.5 at $1.92 (Luxbet)

1 unit on Gold Coast +8.5 at $1.91 (Centrebet)

1 unit on Port Adelaide v Collingwood under 177.5 total pts at $1.91 (Bet365)

1 unit on Fremantle +13.0 at $1.92 (Luxbet)

1 unit on Melbourne v Western Bulldogs under 176.5 total pts at $1.91 (Bet365)

1 unit on Richmond -28.5 at $1.91 (Sportingbet)


Thanks to Mark Nolan/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo


Comments are closed.